USL ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Birmingham Legion2Charleston Battery2

HT 2–2Sat 12 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 05:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Charleston Battery are slight favorites with a 55% estimated win probability, but the market price of 1.88 offers only a marginal +2 point edge, and their poor away form plus the venue change to Dunnavant Valley Fields add risk.

Avoid the goal markets—Over 2.5, BTTS, and first-half goals are all overpriced relative to our model, with negative edges up to -12 points. The only actionable lean is a small play on Charleston to win, but it is not a strong value bet.

Context

Charleston Battery sit second in the USL Championship with 39 points, but their away record is much weaker than their home form.
Charleston Battery have won only 4 of 12 away matches and lost 7, conceding 20 goals. Birmingham Legion have won just 2 of 11 home games and lost 4, scoring only 10 goals. Both teams have been less effective in these situations, so the match may be closer than the table suggests.
- Charleston Battery away record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses in 12 matches.
- Birmingham Legion home record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses in 11 matches.
The teams have met five times since 2024, with Charleston Battery winning three and drawing one.
In the most recent meeting on March 21, 2026, Charleston Battery won 3-2 at home. They also won 2-1 at home on October 25, 2025. Birmingham Legion's only win in this span came at home in May 2024, so Charleston Battery have had the upper hand recently.
- March 21, 2026: Charleston Battery 3-2 Birmingham Legion.
- October 25, 2025: Charleston Battery 2-1 Birmingham Legion.
Birmingham's home match against Charleston has been moved from Protective Stadium to Dunnavant Valley Fields due to a scheduling conflict.
The change in venue alters the on-site setting and home preparation for Birmingham, though no directional performance effect is assumed. Both teams will need to adjust to the new location.
- Birmingham announced on August 6 that the original September 13 home match at Protective Stadium was rescheduled to September 12.
- The announcement names Dunnavant Valley Fields as the venue for the Charleston fixture and cites a scheduling conflict at Protective Stadium.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 05:05 · Europe/BucharestBirmingham Legion FC Matches Rescheduledwww.bhmlegion.com · 6 Aug 2026
Birmingham Legion are 11th in the table with 18 points from 21 matches.
Their recent form shows a 2-2 draw at Indy Eleven on September 5, a 3-2 loss at Hartford Athletic on August 29, a 3-2 home loss to Sporting JAX on August 23, and a 3-2 loss at Colorado Springs on August 16. They have conceded three goals in three of those four matches, which could be a problem against Charleston Battery's attack.
- September 5, 2026: Indy Eleven 2-2 Birmingham Legion.
- August 29, 2026: Hartford Athletic 3-2 Birmingham Legion.
- August 23, 2026: Birmingham Legion 2-3 Sporting JAX.
- August 16, 2026: Colorado Springs 3-2 Birmingham Legion.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Charleston Battery

1.30fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Birmingham's poor overall form makes a home win unlikely, so backing Charleston or draw covers the most probable outcomes.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Charleston Battery

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Birmingham's tendency to be level or behind at halftime, combined with Charleston's strong first halves, supports this double chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent scoring and conceding rates suggest a high-scoring match, with Charleston's attack particularly potent.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, making it likely that each side finds the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, with Charleston especially strong early, so at least one first-half goal is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charleston's superior league position and recent H2H dominance give them the edge, though their away form is inconsistent.
- Charleston Battery rank 2nd with 39 points, while Birmingham Legion rank 11th with 18 points.
- Charleston Battery away record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses in 12 matches; Birmingham home record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses in 11 matches.
- Charleston Battery have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including the most recent 3-2 win in March 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCharleston BatteryEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's poor overall form makes a home win unlikely, so backing Charleston or draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- Birmingham Legion have only 3 wins in 21 league matches this season.
- Charleston Battery have lost 8 of 23 matches, but Birmingham's win rate is just 14%.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Birmingham have won only once.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Charleston BatteryEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charleston's strong first-half performances and Birmingham's tendency to trail at halftime give the visitors an edge in the opening period.
- Charleston Battery led at halftime in 53% of their last 15 matches.
- Birmingham Legion led at halftime in only 13% of their last 15 matches.
- Charleston average 1.1 first-half goals compared to Birmingham's 0.7.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCharleston BatteryEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charleston's superior quality should allow them to control the second half, though the outcome is less certain than the first half.
- Charleston Battery have a positive goal difference in the second half across recent matches.
- Birmingham Legion have conceded more goals in the second half than they have scored.
- Charleston's overall attacking strength is likely to continue into the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCharleston BatteryEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charleston are capable of leading at halftime and holding on for the win, but Birmingham's resilience at home makes this a lower-probability outcome.
- Charleston Battery led at halftime in 53% of their last 15 matches.
- Charleston Battery won 12 of 23 league matches this season.
- Birmingham Legion have only 3 wins in 21 league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCharleston Battery/Charleston BatteryEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charleston have the firepower to dominate both halves, but Birmingham's home advantage and occasional resilience make this a risky prediction.
- Charleston Battery have won both halves in several recent matches, including a 5-0 win over Miami FC.
- Birmingham Legion have rarely won both halves, with only 3 total wins this season.
- Charleston's attacking depth allows them to sustain pressure across both halves.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostCharleston BatteryEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's tendency to be level or behind at halftime, combined with Charleston's strong first halves, supports this double chance.
- Charleston Battery led at halftime in 53% of their last 15 matches.
- Birmingham Legion trailed at halftime in 13% and drew at halftime in 73% of their last 15 matches.
- Birmingham rarely lead at halftime, making a draw or Charleston lead the most likely first-half outcome.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Charleston BatteryEstimated chance70%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent scoring and conceding rates suggest a high-scoring match, with Charleston's attack particularly potent.
- Birmingham Legion average 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded per match in their last 15.
- Charleston Battery average 2.3 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded per match in their last 15.
- Combined average goals per match across both teams' recent form is 3.1.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, making it likely that each side finds the net.
- Birmingham Legion have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Charleston Battery have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Birmingham have conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches, while Charleston have conceded in 8 of their last 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with Charleston especially strong early, so at least one first-half goal is likely.
- Birmingham Legion average 0.7 first-half goals per match in their last 15.
- Charleston Battery average 1.1 first-half goals per match in their last 15.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.8, indicating a high chance of at least one goal before halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open as both teams push for goals, and their scoring rates support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Birmingham Legion average 0.8 second-half goals per match (total 1.5 minus 0.7 first-half).
- Charleston Battery average 1.2 second-half goals per match (total 2.3 minus 1.1 first-half).
- Combined second-half goal average is 2.0, suggesting a high-scoring second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both teams can score early, the likelihood of both doing so in the same first half is lower than the overall BTTS market.
- Birmingham Legion average 0.7 first-half goals, and Charleston average 1.1 first-half goals.
- Both teams have scored in the first half in 4 of Birmingham's last 15 matches and 6 of Charleston's last 15 matches.
- The probability of both teams scoring in the first half is moderate given their scoring rates.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonYesEstimated chance35%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 75% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Charleston Battery has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Charleston Battery has fulfilled 3 of 7 recent win projections, a 43% success rate. The average estimated probability in those matches was 50.7%, with an expected 3.6 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment is slightly below expectation. Notably, all three missed predictions ended in draws, and the team has won only 1 of 3 away matches when projected to win.

Recent evidence for Charleston Battery7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL Championship