USL ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Indy Eleven2Birmingham Legion2

HT 1–1Sat 5 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 03:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Indy Eleven's strong home form and Birmingham's poor away record make the hosts likely to avoid defeat, but the market has already priced this in, leaving no value on the home win or double chance.

The over 2.5 goals and both teams to score lines are heavily juiced and should be avoided. The only confirmed match condition is a first-half hydration break, which could influence tempo and fatigue.

Context

Indy Eleven sit 6th in the USL Championship with 28 points, while Birmingham Legion are 11th with 17 points.
Indy Eleven's home record is 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from 10 matches, with 17 goals scored and 8 conceded. Birmingham Legion's away record is 1 win, 3 draws, and 5 losses from 9 matches, with 14 goals scored and 18 conceded. This contrast suggests Indy Eleven are likely to control the match at home, but Birmingham Legion's away scoring rate of 1.56 goals per game means they can still threaten.
- Indy Eleven home record: 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 10 matches.
- Birmingham Legion away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 5 losses in 9 matches.
Birmingham Legion are 11th in the USL Championship with 17 points from 20 matches.
Birmingham Legion's recent league form is LLLWL, with losses to Hartford Athletic (2-3 on 2026-08-29), Sporting JAX (2-3 on 2026-08-23), and Colorado Springs (2-3 on 2026-08-16). They have conceded three goals in each of those defeats, showing defensive vulnerability. However, they did win their most recent home match against Rhode Island 1-0 on 2026-08-02, so they are capable of tightening up.
- Birmingham Legion lost 2-3 to Hartford Athletic on 2026-08-29.
- Birmingham Legion lost 2-3 to Sporting JAX on 2026-08-23.
- Birmingham Legion lost 2-3 to Colorado Springs on 2026-08-16.
Indy Eleven are 6th in the USL Championship with 28 points from 20 matches.
Indy Eleven's recent form is LWWDL, including a 2-1 home win over Louisville City on 2026-08-22 and a 1-0 away win at Sporting JAX on 2026-08-15. They lost 1-2 away to Phoenix Rising on 2026-08-30. Their home form remains strong, with only one home loss all season, so they should be confident at home.
- Indy Eleven beat Louisville City 2-1 at home on 2026-08-22.
- Indy Eleven beat Sporting JAX 1-0 away on 2026-08-15.
- Indy Eleven lost 1-2 to Phoenix Rising away on 2026-08-30.
Both teams recorded a hydration break in the opening half, with Indy Eleven's break in the 24th minute and Birmingham Legion's in the 23rd minute.
The early hydration break points to warm conditions that can slow the tempo and increase fatigue, particularly for sustained pressing. The extra pause may help players recover between high-intensity actions, but the effect on the match outcome remains uncertain.
- Indy Eleven recorded a hydration break in the 24th minute with the home side leading 1-0.
- Birmingham Legion FC independently recorded a hydration break in the 23rd minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 03:06 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Indy Eleven

1.85fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Indy Eleven's strong home record (7W 2D 1L) and Birmingham's poor away form (1W 3D 5L) support a home win, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Indy Eleven or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.8%

−9.8ppshort

Indy Eleven's 90% unbeaten home record and Birmingham's 44% unbeaten away record make the double chance likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.11fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 90.1%

0.0ppshort

Birmingham's away games average 3.6 total goals and Indy's home games average 2.5, but the odds are far too short to justify a bet.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 3.5

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Over 3.5 requires a higher scoring match than the predictor's 55% Over 2.5 estimate suggests, and the odds offer no margin.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.13fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, but the odds are far too short to justify a bet.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.11fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 90.1%

0.0ppshort

Birmingham's high first-half scoring rate and Indy's occasional first-half goals make over 0.5 first-half goals likely, but the odds are far too short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Indy Eleven's strong home form and Birmingham's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- Indy Eleven home record: 7W 2D 1L in 10 matches, 17 goals for, 8 against
- Birmingham Legion away record: 1W 3D 5L in 9 matches, 14 goals for, 18 against
- Indy Eleven last 5 form: LWWDL (2W 1D 2L), Birmingham last 5: LLLWL (1W 0D 4L)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIndy ElevenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Indy Eleven's dominant home form and Birmingham's struggles on the road make the double chance a high-probability outcome.
- Indy Eleven home record: 7W 2D 1L (90% unbeaten at home)
- Birmingham Legion away record: 1W 3D 5L (44% unbeaten away)
- H2H last 5: Indy Eleven 2W 2D 1L vs Birmingham
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIndy Eleven or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half draw rates, especially Birmingham, making a level first half plausible.
- Indy Eleven first half results: 20% leading, 27% trailing, 53% drawing
- Birmingham Legion first half results: 13% leading, 13% trailing, 74% drawing
- H2H last 5 first halves: 3 draws, 1 Indy lead, 1 Birmingham lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Indy's home advantage tends to show in the second half, while Birmingham's away struggles persist, giving Indy a slight edge.
- Indy Eleven home second half goal difference: +0.9 (17 for, 8 against in 10)
- Birmingham Legion away second half goal difference: -0.4 (14 for, 18 against in 9)
- Indy Eleven overall second half performance stronger at home
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostIndy ElevenEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Indy win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given the teams' patterns.
- Indy Eleven home: 2 of 10 matches were level at half-time and won
- Birmingham Legion away: 1 of 9 matches were level at half-time and lost
- H2H: one previous match had this pattern
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Indy ElevenEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Indy winning both halves is unlikely due to their modest first-half performance, but possible against a weak away side.
- Indy Eleven home: won both halves in 2 of 10 matches
- Birmingham Legion away: lost both halves in 2 of 9 matches
- Indy's first-half lead rate is only 20%
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostIndy ElevenEstimated chance15%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's tendency to draw first halves and Indy's moderate first-half performance make Draw or Birmingham a slight favorite.
- Indy Eleven first half: 20% lead, 27% trail, 53% draw
- Birmingham Legion first half: 13% lead, 13% trail, 74% draw
- Birmingham's first-half draw rate is very high
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Birmingham LegionEstimated chance55%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's away games are high-scoring and Indy's home games are balanced, suggesting a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Indy Eleven home matches average 2.5 total goals (17 for, 8 against in 10)
- Birmingham Legion away matches average 3.6 total goals (14 for, 18 against in 9)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, especially Birmingham away, making BTTS likely.
- Indy Eleven home: scored in 8 of 10, conceded in 5 of 10
- Birmingham Legion away: scored in 7 of 9, conceded in 8 of 9
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's high first-half scoring rate and Indy's occasional first-half goals make over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Indy Eleven first half goals: 0.3 per match, conceded 0.3
- Birmingham Legion first half goals: 0.7 per match, conceded 0.6
- Birmingham's last 5 first halves: 4 of 5 had at least one goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is close to 1.5, making this a borderline call with moderate uncertainty.
- Indy Eleven second half goals: 0.8 per match (1.1 total - 0.3 first half)
- Birmingham Legion second half goals: 0.6 per match (1.3 total - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the low first-half scoring rates, both teams scoring in the first half is less likely than not.
- Indy Eleven first half goals: 0.3 per match, conceded 0.3
- Birmingham Legion first half goals: 0.7 per match, conceded 0.6
- Combined first half average: 1.0 goals, but both teams scoring in first half is rare
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The odds imply a 54% chance of a home win, but our model estimates only 45%, leaving no value and a negative edge.

Prediction history

Indy Eleven's Over 2.5 goals projections have underperformed recently

Indy Eleven's Over 2.5 goals projections have fulfilled in 2 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 58.3%, but only 33% of predictions matched, below the expected 3.5 fulfilled predictions. Notably, all 3 home matches failed to reach Over 2.5 goals, while both fulfilled predictions occurred away from home.

Recent evidence for Indy Eleven6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·USL Championship