Pittsburgh Riverhounds3Charleston Battery1

HT 2–1Sat 15 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Aug 2026, 10:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Charleston Battery are unbeaten in the last four H2H meetings and offer value in the double chance market (Draw or Charleston) at 1.50, with a 72% estimated probability versus 67% implied.

Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score also carry small edges, but avoid the match winner and Asian handicap markets due to Charleston's poor away form.

Context

Last three league H2H: 2-1, 2-1, 2-1 all to Charleston.
- Charleston won the 2026 USL Cup shootout after a 0-0 draw.
- Pittsburgh have not beaten Charleston in regulation in the last four meetings.
Away record: 3W-1D-6L.
- Lost 4-0 at Rhode Island on 22 April.
- Lost 2-1 at Colorado Springs on 26 July.
Home goals conceded average: 0.6 per game.
- Clean sheets vs Sacramento, Indy Eleven, Miami FC.
- Only one home match this season had over 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and superior attacking output give Charleston the edge, though their away form is inconsistent.
- Charleston are unbeaten in last 4 H2H meetings (3W, 1D), including three 2-1 league wins.
- Charleston average 2.4 goals per game in last 15, while Pittsburgh average 1.1.
- Charleston away record: 3W-1D-6L, but Pittsburgh home record: 5W-1D-4L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCharleston BatteryEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H dominance and Pittsburgh's shaky home form make a Charleston loss unlikely.
- Charleston unbeaten in last 4 H2H (3W, 1D).
- Pittsburgh have lost 4 of 10 home matches this season.
- Charleston have only lost 6 of 19 overall, with 10 wins.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Charleston BatteryEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charleston's first-half scoring edge suggests they may lead at the break, but draw is also likely.
- Charleston led at halftime in 47% of matches; Pittsburgh in 40%.
- Charleston average 1.2 first-half goals vs Pittsburgh's 0.5.
- H2H first-half data not available.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCharleston BatteryEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Charleston's superior quality could produce this HT/FT combination.
- Charleston often start strong but may be held in first half (47% leading at HT).
- Pittsburgh have drawn at halftime in 53% of matches (trailing only 7%).
- Charleston have won 10 of 19 matches overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Charleston BatteryEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charleston's high-scoring attack and the recurring 2-1 H2H scoreline support over 2.5 goals.
- Charleston average 2.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game in last 15.
- Pittsburgh average 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game in last 15.
- Last three league H2H meetings all ended 2-1 (3 goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and the H2H pattern shows goals at both ends.
- Charleston have scored in 14 of last 15 matches.
- Pittsburgh have scored in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Last three league H2H meetings saw both teams score (2-1 each).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Charleston's strong first-half scoring tendency makes a first-half goal likely.
- Charleston average 1.2 first-half goals per game in last 15.
- Pittsburgh average 0.5 first-half goals per game in last 15.
- Charleston led at halftime in 47% of matches; Pittsburgh in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, but confidence is low due to limited direct data.
- Charleston average 1.2 second-half goals per game (2.4 total - 1.2 first half).
- Pittsburgh average 0.6 second-half goals per game (1.1 total - 0.5 first half).
- Combined second-half average: 1.8 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner stats, this is a speculative estimate based on league norms.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- USL Championship average corners per game typically around 9-10.
- No direct evidence from input data.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card data is missing, so this is a low-confidence estimate based on typical league averages.
- Foul and card data unavailable for both teams.
- USL Championship average cards per game typically around 3-4.
- No direct evidence from input data.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance40%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 38% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the away side's inconsistent road form and Pittsburgh's home resilience make the price fair at best.

Prediction history

Charleston Battery have been moderately reliable when projected to win

Charleston Battery have fulfilled 3 of 7 recent win projections. Their average estimated probability was 50.7%, with an expected 3.6 wins, so they have slightly underperformed. Notably, all three missed projections ended in draws, and they have won only 1 of 3 away matches when projected to win.

Recent evidence for Charleston Battery7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL Championship