Independiente del Valle0Flamengo2

HT 0–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 18–4On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 10–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 08:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Flamengo are slight favourites, but the best value is on Both Teams to Score at 1.91 (edge +7.6pts).

Avoid the double chance and over 2.5 goals, as the market has already priced in Flamengo's dominance and the first leg may be tighter than expected.

Context

Flamengo topped Group A with 16 points from six matches, scoring 14 and conceding 2.
They won every group game, including a 2-1 home win over Cruzeiro on 20 August and a 1-1 away draw on 13 August. This shows they can win tight matches and keep clean sheets, which matters against an opponent that also scores freely. The only caution is that their group opponents were not as strong as Independiente del Valle's recent Libertadores opponents.
- Flamengo finished Group A with 16 points from 6 matches, winning 5 and drawing 1.
- They scored 14 goals and conceded only 2 in the group stage.
- In their last Libertadores match, they beat Cruzeiro 2-1 at home on 20 August 2026.
Independiente del Valle's home leg moves from Banco Guayaquil to Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito, where the club has not played its recent domestic and Libertadores home matches.
The change removes the familiar Banco Guayaquil setting and shifts the tie to a different city and surface routine. Both teams must adjust their stadium-specific preparation and travel logistics, with Independiente del Valle losing the continuity of its usual home environment. The linked match-winner outlook leans toward Flamengo, but the venue switch itself does not establish a tactical advantage for either side.
- Independiente del Valle's ticket listing gives Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito, for 10 September at 19:30.
- CONMEBOL recorded Banco Guayaquil as IDV's home stadium for the 25 August Libertadores match against Deportes Tolima.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 08:53 · Europe/BucharestIndependiente del Valle ticket listingwww.tickets.superticket.ec · 6 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Libertadoresgol.conmebol.com · 24 Aug 2026
Independiente del Valle topped Group H with 13 points, winning 4, drawing 1, and losing 1.
At home in the group stage, they beat Deportes Tolima 3-1 on 26 August, and earlier won 3-1 and 2-0 against other opponents. Their home form is strong, but Flamengo also has a perfect away record in the group stage, so this match could be closer than the home record suggests.
- Independiente del Valle won all 3 home matches in the Libertadores group stage.
- They scored 8 goals and conceded 2 at home.
- Their last home Libertadores match was a 3-1 win over Deportes Tolima on 26 August 2026.
Flamengo's recent away matches include a 5-1 win at Mirassol on 16 August and a 1-1 draw at Cruzeiro on 13 August.
They have won three of their last four away games across all competitions, scoring 12 goals in those four matches. This away scoring ability could trouble Independiente del Valle, who have conceded in two of their three home Libertadores matches.
- Flamengo beat Mirassol 5-1 away on 16 August 2026.
- They drew 1-1 away at Cruzeiro on 13 August 2026.
- In their last four away matches, they scored 12 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's superior continental form and perfect H2H record outweigh Independiente del Valle's strong home record, making the visitors slight favourites.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 6 Libertadores matches (5W 1D), scoring 14 and conceding 2.
- Independiente del Valle have won all 3 home Libertadores matches this season, scoring 8 and conceding 2.
- H2H: Flamengo have won all 5 previous meetings, including 4-0 and 5-0 wins in 2020.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's unbeaten continental run and historical dominance make the double chance a safer play.
- Flamengo have not lost in their last 6 Libertadores matches (5W 1D).
- Independiente del Valle have drawn 1 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- H2H: Flamengo have never lost to Independiente del Valle in 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FlamengoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first leg of a knockout tie often starts cautiously, and both teams have recent half-time draws.
- Independiente del Valle have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Flamengo have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Both teams have strong first-half records, but a tight start is plausible in a high-stakes tie.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong second-half record and depth give them an edge after the break.
- Flamengo have won the second half in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Flamengo's superior squad depth may show later in the match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a Flamengo victory is a plausible scenario given their second-half record.
- Flamengo have drawn at half-time and won full-time in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Flamengo's second-half strength supports a late win.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/FlamengoEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong attacking numbers and the home side's recent home games have been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Independiente del Valle average 2.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Flamengo average 2.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Independiente del Valle's last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are consistent scorers and the home side's recent home games show a pattern of both teams finding the net.
- Independiente del Valle have scored in 14 of their last 15 matches.
- Flamengo have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Independiente del Valle's last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, making a first-half goal highly likely.
- Independiente del Valle average 1.2 first-half goals and have led at half-time in 67% of their last 15 matches.
- Flamengo average 1.1 first-half goals and have led at half-time in 60% of their last 15 matches.
- In 4 of Independiente del Valle's last 5 home matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common for both sides, but the line is high and confidence is limited.
- Independiente del Valle average 1.4 second-half goals in their last 15 matches.
- Flamengo average 1.2 second-half goals in their last 15 matches.
- Both teams have scored in the second half in 3 of Independiente del Valle's last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, making over 9.5 a coin-flip.
- Independiente del Valle average 5.3 corners and concede 4.7 corners per match.
- Flamengo average 4.7 corners and concede 4.3 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is around 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are accurate shooters, but the line is high and confidence is limited.
- Independiente del Valle average 6.1 shots on target per match.
- Flamengo average 6.1 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target is 12.2, but recent matches show variance.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high-stakes nature of the match could lead to more cards, but the line is tight.
- Independiente del Valle average 1.4 yellow cards and 0.4 red cards per match.
- Flamengo average 1.0 yellow cards and 0.0 red cards per match.
- Combined average cards is around 2.8, but knockout intensity may increase bookings.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Flamengo has converted 5 of 10 recent win projections

Flamengo has fulfilled 5 of 10 recent match-winner predictions. The average estimated probability was 56.3%, with an expected 5.6 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment is slightly below expectation. Missed predictions were mostly draws (4 of 5), and away performance has been weaker with only 1 fulfilment in 4 away matches.

Recent evidence for Flamengo10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A