First LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Cherno More Varna2Lokomotiv Sofia2

HT 2–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 12–8On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 9–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 23:01 · Europe/Bucharest

A draw is the most likely outcome (35% model probability) and offers value at odds of 3.50 (+6-point edge).

Avoid the double chance and first-half Over 0.5, which are overpriced; Cherno More's key attacker A. Kolev is out long-term, reducing their scoring threat.

Context

Cherno More Varna are 12th in the First League with 4 points from 8 matches, only one point above the relegation line.
They have lost six of their last eight league games, including a 0-1 defeat at Lokomotiv Plovdiv on 6 September and a 1-3 loss at CSKA Sofia on 30 August. Their only win in that run came at home against Dunav Ruse on 21 August. This poor run leaves them needing points to avoid falling into the bottom two.
- Cherno More Varna have lost 6 of their last 8 league matches.
- They lost 0-1 at Lokomotiv Plovdiv on 6 September and 1-3 at CSKA Sofia on 30 August.
- They are 12th with 4 points, one point above the relegation line.
Cherno More attacker A. Kolev was in the squad for the 6 September away match at Lokomotiv Plovdiv, but an MRI on 8 September found two completely torn ankle ligaments and projected an absence of three to six months. He had started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, while Celso Sidney started in the same position in 4 of those 5 matches when Kolev did not start.
Kolev's confirmed long-term absence removes an attacking option from Cherno More's matchday selection and forces a forward-unit adjustment for this fixture. Celso Sidney is the most direct replacement based on recent starts in that role, but the team loses the flexibility Kolev provided when he was available. The injury is settled, so Cherno More must plan without him rather than wait on a late fitness test.
- Cherno More named A. Kolev in their 23-player squad for the 6 September away match at Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- The club reported on 8 September that an MRI found two completely torn ankle ligaments and projected an absence of three to six months.
- A. Kolev started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Celso Sidney started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Kolev did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:00 · Europe/BucharestCherno More squad for Lokomotiv Plovdivchernomorepfc.bg · 4 Sep 2026Cherno More injury updatechernomorepfc.bg · 8 Sep 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia are 14th in the First League with 3 points from 7 matches, five points from safety.
They have drawn three and lost four of their seven league games, including a 1-2 home loss to Ludogorets on 6 September and a 2-2 draw at Dunav Ruse on 31 August. Their away record is slightly better with three draws from four matches, but they have yet to win anywhere. A defeat here would deepen their relegation trouble.
- Lokomotiv Sofia are winless in 7 league matches (3 draws, 4 losses).
- They lost 1-2 at home to Ludogorets on 6 September and drew 2-2 at Dunav Ruse on 31 August.
- They are 14th with 3 points, five points from safety.
The last five head-to-head matches between these teams have been split, but Cherno More Varna have dominated at home.
Cherno More Varna beat Lokomotiv Sofia 4-0 at home on 3 December 2024 and 3-0 on 4 April 2024. However, Lokomotiv Sofia won the most recent meeting 1-0 at Cherno More Varna on 22 November 2025. This suggests Cherno More Varna are usually strong at home in this fixture, but recent form may override that pattern.
- Cherno More Varna won 4-0 at home on 3 December 2024 and 3-0 at home on 4 April 2024.
- Lokomotiv Sofia won 1-0 at Cherno More Varna on 22 November 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cherno More Varna or Draw

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and Lokomotiv Sofia's winless away record make Cherno More or Draw a solid double chance.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly find the net but also concede, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.35fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to concede early, with Lokomotiv Sofia especially vulnerable in the first half, making a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in poor form and near the bottom, with Lokomotiv Sofia showing a tendency to draw away from home, making a stalemate the most likely outcome.
- Cherno More Varna home record: 1W 0D 2L in 3 home league matches this season
- Lokomotiv Sofia away record: 0W 3D 1L in 4 away league matches this season
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 Cherno More wins, 1 Lokomotiv Sofia win
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and Lokomotiv Sofia's winless away record make Cherno More Varna or Draw a solid double chance.
- Cherno More Varna have won 1 of their last 3 home league matches
- Lokomotiv Sofia have not won any of their 4 away league matches this season
- Cherno More Varna won 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCherno More Varna or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team is strong in the first half, so a level score at the break is the most plausible outcome.
- Cherno More Varna led at half-time in only 27% of matches
- Lokomotiv Sofia led at half-time in only 7% of matches
- Both teams often trail or draw at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cherno More Varna may edge the second half due to home support and Lokomotiv Sofia's defensive lapses late in games.
- Cherno More Varna have scored more second-half goals at home in recent matches
- Lokomotiv Sofia have conceded more second-half goals away from home
- Home teams often improve after the break
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCherno More VarnaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible but low-probability outcome given the teams' tendencies.
- Both teams have a high percentage of draws at half-time
- Lokomotiv Sofia have drawn 3 of 4 away matches
- Cherno More Varna have drawn 1 of 3 home matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and modest attacking output, but their combined averages suggest a decent chance of at least three goals.
- Cherno More Varna average 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match this season
- Lokomotiv Sofia average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match this season
- Combined average goals per match for both teams: 2.8
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net but also concede, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- Cherno More Varna have scored in 5 of their last 8 league matches
- Lokomotiv Sofia have scored in 6 of their last 7 league matches
- Both teams have conceded in most of their recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, with Lokomotiv Sofia especially vulnerable in the first half, making a first-half goal likely.
- Cherno More Varna average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- Lokomotiv Sofia average 0.2 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open for both teams, but the low confidence reflects the limited sample and variability.
- Cherno More Varna average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded
- Lokomotiv Sofia average 1.1 second-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.8
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate yellow cards, and a relegation battle may increase intensity, pushing the total cards over the line.
- Cherno More Varna average 3 yellow cards per match
- Lokomotiv Sofia average 2.6 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.6
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L0-1Cherno More VarnavLokomotiv SofiaNov 22, 2025FIR

D1-1Lokomotiv SofiavCherno More VarnaJul 18, 2025FIR

W4-0Cherno More VarnavLokomotiv SofiaDec 3, 2024FIR

L2-1Lokomotiv SofiavCherno More VarnaAug 4, 2024FIR

W3-0Cherno More VarnavLokomotiv SofiaApr 4, 2024FIR

Cherno More Varna: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Cherno More Varna efbet League (Relegation Group)	8	1	1	6	8-17	4	LLWLL
14	Lokomotiv Sofia efbet League (Relegation Group)	7	0	3	4	8-14	3	LDLLD

1pt gap between teamsCherno More Varna in relegation zoneLokomotiv Sofia in relegation zone

Recent Form