Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Fratria Varna2Chernomorets Burgas2

HT 1–1Mon 7 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–529%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 08:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Fratria's home form is strong, but Chernomorets' new coach has won both games, making the home win less certain than the odds suggest.

The best value lies in under 2.5 goals, with a 60% model probability against 57.1% implied, though the edge is small. Avoid the match winner and double chance markets, as they are priced without value.

Context

Fratria Varna sit third in the Second League with 14 points from seven matches, one point behind leaders Vihren.
Their recent form includes a 1-0 home win over CSKA Sofia II on 29 August and a 2-0 away win at Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa on 9 August. This run shows they are hard to beat, but the sample is small and mostly against lower-ranked sides.
- Won 1-0 at home to CSKA Sofia II on 2026-08-29.
- Won 2-0 away at Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa on 2026-08-09.
- Drew 1-1 away at Hebar 1918 on 2026-09-01.
Angel Stoykov is the current head coach of Chernomorets Burgas, having taken charge after Ivan Kolev's resignation on 24 August.
Chernomorets have won both matches under Stoykov, beating Pirin 3-0 and Ludogorets II 1-0. Those results came against different opponents, so they do not guarantee a repeat here, but they show the team has adapted to his selection and tactical calls.
- Chernomorets announced on 24 August that it had accepted Ivan Kolev's resignation and that sporting director Angel Stoykov would lead the team.
- On 2 September, Chernomorets reported a 1-0 win over Ludogorets II as its second win in two matches under Stoykov, after a 3-0 victory at Pirin.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 08:20 · Europe/BucharestChernomorets confirms Ivan Kolev's departurewww.chernomoretz1919.com · 24 Aug 2026Chernomorets reports second win under Angel Stoykovwww.chernomoretz1919.com · 2 Sep 2026
Chernomorets Burgas are seventh in the Second League with 11 points from seven matches.
They won 1-0 at home to Ludogorets II on 2 September and 3-0 away at Pirin Blagoevgrad on 29 August. These results show an improving attack, but both opponents are in the bottom half of the table.
- Won 1-0 at home to Ludogorets II on 2026-09-02.
- Won 3-0 away at Pirin Blagoevgrad on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 0-1 away at Hebar 1918 on 2026-08-23.
Fratria Varna's home record is three wins and one loss from four Second League matches.
They beat CSKA Sofia II 1-0 and Beroe 2-0 at home, and lost 0-1 to Marek on 25 July. This shows they are solid at home, but the loss to Marek shows they can be beaten by organized sides.
- Home record: 3 wins, 1 loss, 4 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- Won 1-0 at home to CSKA Sofia II on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 0-1 at home to Marek on 2026-07-25.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Fratria Varna

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Fratria's home form is strong but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, so no value.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Fratria's strong home defense and Chernomorets' moderate away scoring suggest at least one team may fail to score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring averages.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.36fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make both teams scoring in the first half unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria's strong home form and superior overall record give them the edge, but Chernomorets' recent coaching change adds uncertainty.
- Fratria home record: 3W 0D 1L, 4 goals for, 1 against in 4 home matches
- Fratria overall: 4W 2D 1L, 9 goals for, 4 against in 7 matches
- Chernomorets away record: 1W 2D 1L, 5 goals for, 3 against in 4 away matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFratria VarnaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria's strong home form and Chernomorets' mixed away results make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Fratria home record: 3W 0D 1L in 4 home matches
- Fratria overall: 4W 2D 1L in 7 matches
- Chernomorets away record: 1W 2D 1L in 4 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFratria Varna or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half leads, making a draw at the break the most likely outcome.
- Fratria leading at half time in 43% of matches
- Chernomorets leading at half time in 33% of matches
- Fratria trailing at half time in 29% of matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria's home advantage may show more in the second half as they push for a win.
- Fratria overall goal difference +5, Chernomorets +3
- Fratria home record strong with 3 wins in 4
- Chernomorets away record mixed with 1 win in 4
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFratria VarnaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Fratria win is plausible given their home strength.
- Fratria home matches often tight in first half (0.9 first half goals average)
- Fratria strong second half at home (3 wins in 4 home matches)
- Chernomorets away first half average 0.5 goals
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Fratria VarnaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team is likely to win both halves given their first-half records.
- Fratria leading at half time in only 43% of matches
- Chernomorets leading at half time in 33% of matches
- Both teams rarely dominate both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria are less likely to trail at half time, making a home lead or draw the safer first-half bet.
- Fratria leading at half time in 43% of matches
- Fratria trailing at half time in only 29% of matches
- Chernomorets leading at half time in 33% of matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFratria Varna or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have solid defenses, especially Fratria at home, suggesting a low-scoring match.
- Fratria home matches average 1.25 total goals (5 goals in 4 matches)
- Chernomorets away matches average 2.0 total goals (8 goals in 4 matches)
- Fratria overall average 1.86 total goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria's strong home defense and Chernomorets' moderate away scoring suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Fratria home record: 4 goals for, 1 against in 4 matches
- Chernomorets away record: 5 goals for, 3 against in 4 matches
- Fratria overall: 9 goals for, 4 against in 7 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring averages.
- Fratria first half goals average 0.9 per match overall
- Chernomorets first half goals average 0.5 per match overall
- Fratria first half goals conceded average 0.4 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves may open up as teams push for a result, but the evidence is not strong.
- Fratria second half goals average 0.7 per match (1.6 total - 0.9 first half)
- Chernomorets second half goals average 0.5 per match (1.0 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second half average 1.2 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make both teams scoring in the first half unlikely.
- Fratria first half goals conceded average 0.4
- Chernomorets first half goals average 0.5
- Fratria first half goals average 0.9
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

W0-2Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvFratriaNov 29, 2025SEC

L2-1FratriavChernomorets 1919 BurgasJul 26, 2025SEC

2.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Fratria Varna	7	4	2	1	9-4	14	DWDWW
7	Chernomorets Burgas	7	3	2	2	7-4	11	WWLLD

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Fratria Varna

D1-1Hebar 1918Sep 1SEC

W1-0CSKA Sofia IIAug 29SEC

D2-2VihrenAug 24SEC

W2-0BeroeAug 14SEC

W2-0Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaAug 9SEC

W1-0Rilski SportistAug 1SEC

L0-1MarekJul 25SEC

D1-1Yantra 2019Jul 10FRI

W2-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 4FRI

D1-1Farul ConstantaJun 27FRI

W3-0Pirin BlagoevgradMay 23SEC

W3-0BelasitsaMay 15SEC

D2-2Dunav RuseMay 11SEC

L1-2VihrenMay 4SEC

D2-2CSKA Sofia IIApr 26SEC

Chernomorets Burgas

W1-0Ludogorets IISep 2SEC

W3-0Pirin BlagoevgradAug 29SEC

L0-1Hebar 1918Aug 23SEC

L0-1CSKA Sofia IIAug 17SEC

D1-1VihrenAug 9SEC

W1-0BeroeAug 1SEC

D1-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 25SEC

L1-3Etar Veliko TarnovoJul 11FRI

L0-4Botev PlovdivJul 1FRI

L2-3SevlievoMay 23SEC

W1-0Sportist SvogeMay 15SEC

L0-3MarekMay 11SEC

D1-1Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 3SEC

W3-1Hebar 1918Apr 27SEC

D0-0Ludogorets IIApr 16SEC

Squad & Injuries

Fratria Varna

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Chernomorets Burgas

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Fratria Varna

Fratria Varna or Draw

No

Under 1.5

No

Result4 of 7 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Fratria Varna

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Fratria Varna

Chernomorets Burgas

Squad & Injuries

Fratria Varna

Chernomorets Burgas