Vasalunds IF2Enkopings SK3

HT 1–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Sep 2026, 23:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Vasalund’s new-coach transition and Enköping’s possible missing forward Nwafor add uncertainty, but the market has already priced in the goal-heavy trends.

Avoid Over 2.5, BTTS Yes, and all double chance markets—the odds imply far higher probabilities than the model estimates, leaving no value.

Context

Vasalund are 11th in Ettan - Norra with 23 points from 19 matches.
At home they have won five, drawn one, and lost three, scoring 16 and conceding 15. Away they have won only once in ten matches. This match is at home, so their stronger home record could help them against Enköping.
- Home record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in 9 matches.
- Away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses in 10 matches.
Janne Mian took over as Vasalund IF men's first-team head coach in July, with the August restart his first match in charge.
His early-stage appointment keeps team selection and defensive organisation relevant for this home fixture. The club noted several changes to the starting XI from the spring, so the lineup may still be settling.
- Vasalund announced Janne Mian as the men's head coach on 11 July.
- The club described 3 August as Mian's first match in charge and noted several changes to the starting XI from the spring.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Sep 2026, 23:54 · Europe/BucharestVasalund appoints Janne Mian as head coachwww.vasalund.com · 11 Jul 2026Vasalund - Sollentuna 1-1www.vasalund.com · 3 Aug 2026
Enköping are 8th with 29 points from 19 matches.
Their last five league results are LDLWL. They lost to Stockholm Internazionale 0-3 on August 30, drew 0-0 with Umeå FC on August 23, and lost 0-2 to FBK Karlstad on August 16. This poor run may affect their confidence and performance against Vasalund.
- Lost 0-3 to Stockholm Internazionale on 2026-08-30.
- Drew 0-0 with Umeå FC on 2026-08-23.
- Lost 0-2 to FBK Karlstad on 2026-08-16.
Vasalund's latest outing at Umeå exposed set-piece and chance-creation concerns.
They controlled possession for long spells without producing chances, then conceded directly from a corner and failed to build sustained pressure after Umeå's red card. If repeated, this limits Vasalund's chance creation from possession and leaves a dead-ball defensive vulnerability.
- Vasalund reported taking over possession after five minutes at Umeå but creating no chances until the middle of the first half.
- Umeå scored directly from a corner for 3-2, and Vasalund created only a late Khan attempt after Umeå's 67th-minute red card.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Sep 2026, 23:54 · Europe/BucharestUmeå - Vasalund 3-2www.vasalund.com · 30 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H show a tendency for multiple goals, but the odds already price in a high probability.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have consistent scoring records, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to concede first-half goals, but the odds are too short to justify a bet.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vasalunds IF or Draw

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 70% estimate is significantly below the 85% implied by the 1.17 odds, indicating no value in this first-half double chance.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasalund's home form and recent H2H edge give them a slight advantage, but Enköping's away resilience keeps confidence low.
- Vasalund home record: 5W-1D-3L (16 goals for, 15 against).
- Enköping away record: 3W-1D-5L (12 goals for, 13 against).
- Vasalund won 2 of the last 3 home H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVasalunds IFEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalund's strong home unbeaten rate and Enköping's modest away form support a home double chance.
- Vasalund home record: 5W-1D-3L (66.7% unbeaten).
- Enköping away record: 3W-1D-5L (44.4% win rate).
- Last H2H at Vasalund ended 1-1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostVasalunds IF or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles with a high chance of being level at the break.
- Vasalund leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing in 33%.
- Enköping leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing in 33%.
- Last H2H first half ended 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Vasalund win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given the teams' profiles.
- Vasalund have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Vasalund home win rate is 55.6%.
- Enköping away draw rate is 11.1%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Vasalunds IFEstimated chance18%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team shows a pattern of winning both halves, making this outcome highly unlikely.
- Vasalund have won both halves in only 1 of 9 home matches.
- Enköping have won both halves in 0 of 9 away matches.
- Both teams rarely dominate entire matches.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalund's solid first-half home form and Enköping's poor first-half away record support a home/draw double chance.
- Vasalund first-half home record: 4W-3D-2L in 9 matches.
- Enköping first-half away record: 2W-2D-5L in 9 matches.
- Vasalund have not trailed at half-time in 67% of home games.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonVasalunds IF or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H show a tendency for multiple goals, supporting Over 2.5.
- Vasalund home matches average 3.44 total goals (16 for, 15 against in 9 games).
- Enköping away matches average 2.78 total goals (12 for, 13 against in 9 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3,2,2,5,6 goals (avg 3.6).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Vasalund scored in 8 of 9 home league matches this season.
- Enköping scored in 7 of 9 away league matches this season.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede first-half goals, and H2H history shows early scoring, making Over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Vasalund first-half goals: 0.7 per match overall, 0.9 conceded.
- Enköping first-half goals: 0.5 per match overall, 0.7 conceded.
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals occurred in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' overall goal rates, but the specific split is uncertain.
- Vasalund average 1.5 goals per match overall, with many late goals in recent games.
- Enköping average 1.2 goals per match overall.
- Combined second-half scoring in recent meetings has been frequent.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring rates are modest, and H2H history shows rare simultaneous first-half goals.
- Vasalund first-half goals: 0.7, first-half conceded: 0.9.
- Enköping first-half goals: 0.5, first-half conceded: 0.7.
- In last 5 H2H, both teams scored in first half only once.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%