Monterey Bay1Phoenix Rising1

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 06:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Phoenix Rising are the most likely winners at 45% probability, and the away win at 2.80 offers a +9 point edge.

The strongest value lies in over 2.5 goals (55% vs 26.7% implied, +28 points) and both teams to score (60% vs 37% implied, +23 points). Avoid the double chance and high team-goal lines, as they are priced without value.

Context

Monterey Bay sit 12th in the USL Championship with 17 points from 23 matches.
Their recent form is poor: a 1-1 home draw with Sacramento Republic on August 30, a 3-1 away loss to Rhode Island on August 22, and a 1-1 away draw with Oakland Roots on August 16. This run shows they are conceding goals and failing to close out games. Phoenix Rising, who are 10th with 29 points, have been more consistent recently, so Monterey Bay's lack of wins could be a factor.
- Monterey Bay drew 1-1 at home to Sacramento Republic on 2026-08-30.
- Monterey Bay lost 3-1 away to Rhode Island on 2026-08-22.
- Monterey Bay drew 1-1 away to Oakland Roots on 2026-08-16.
Phoenix Rising attacker J. Torres joined on loan from Charleston Battery in late August and made his club debut in the win over Indy Eleven.
Torres provides another forward option for Phoenix Rising, though he has not started in recent fixtures with D. Badji holding the position. His availability could influence attacking substitutions or rotation.
- Phoenix Rising announced the loan signing of forward JuanDavid Torres from Charleston Battery on August 27.
- Phoenix’s September 2 match preview stated that Torres had made his attacking debut in the August 29 win against Indy Eleven.
- J. Torres started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- D. Badji started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when J. Torres did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 06:04 · Europe/BucharestPhoenix Rising FC — JuanDavid Torres roster profilewww.phxrisingfc.com · 27 Aug 2026Phoenix Rising FC — Match Preview: Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay FCwww.phxrisingfc.com · 2 Sep 2026
Phoenix Rising are 10th in the USL Championship with 29 points.
Their away record is weak: 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses in 11 matches, with 11 goals scored and 16 conceded. This suggests they are less effective on the road. However, they did win their most recent away game against Sacramento Republic on August 23, drawing 2-2, which shows some improvement. Monterey Bay's home record is also mixed, so this could be a close contest.
- Phoenix Rising have 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses in 11 away matches this season.
- Phoenix Rising drew 2-2 away to Sacramento Republic on 2026-08-23.
The teams last met on July 19, 2026.
Phoenix Rising won that match 3-2 at home, with Monterey Bay scoring twice. This result shows Phoenix Rising can score against Monterey Bay, but the match was close. The previous meetings have been mixed, with Monterey Bay winning at home in March 2025. So the head-to-head does not strongly favor either side.
- Phoenix Rising beat Monterey Bay 3-2 at home on 2026-07-19.
- Monterey Bay beat Phoenix Rising 3-1 at home on 2025-03-30.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Phoenix Rising's superior overall record and recent H2H dominance outweigh Monterey Bay's home advantage, making an away win the most likely single outcome.
- Phoenix Rising away record: 2W-4D-5L, 11 goals for, 16 against in 11 away matches
- Monterey Bay home record: 4W-2D-5L, 14 goals for, 16 against in 11 home matches
- Phoenix Rising overall points: 29 vs Monterey Bay 17
- H2H last 5: Phoenix Rising won 3, Monterey Bay won 1, 1 draw
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPhoenix RisingEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's poor home form and Phoenix Rising's solid overall record make the away side or draw a strong combined outcome.
- Monterey Bay home win rate: 36% (4/11)
- Phoenix Rising away loss rate: 45% (5/11)
- Phoenix Rising overall unbeaten rate: 68% (15/22)
- H2H: Phoenix Rising unbeaten in 3 of last 5
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Phoenix RisingEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half win rates and often go into the break level, making a first-half draw the most probable single outcome.
- Monterey Bay leading at half time in 27% of matches
- Phoenix Rising leading at half time in 13% of matches
- Phoenix Rising trailing at half time in 27% of matches
- H2H: 2 of last 5 meetings were level at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Phoenix Rising win is a plausible sequence given Phoenix's ability to improve in the second half and Monterey Bay's tendency to fade.
- Phoenix Rising away matches: 4 draws, 5 losses, 2 wins
- Monterey Bay home matches: 2 draws, 5 losses, 4 wins
- Phoenix Rising overall draw rate: 36% (8/22)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Phoenix RisingEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay rarely leads at half time, and Phoenix Rising is often level or ahead, making the away side or draw a strong first-half double chance.
- Monterey Bay first half win rate: 27%
- Phoenix Rising first half loss rate: 27%
- Phoenix Rising first half draw rate: 60% (9/15)
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Phoenix RisingEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high combined goal averages and recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Monterey Bay average total goals per match: 3.1 (1.4 for, 1.7 against)
- Phoenix Rising average total goals per match: 3.1 (1.3 for, 1.8 against)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
- Monterey Bay home matches average 2.7 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, and recent H2H meetings show a strong pattern of both teams finding the net.
- Monterey Bay scored in 73% of home matches (8/11)
- Phoenix Rising scored in 73% of away matches (8/11)
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Monterey Bay conceded in 82% of home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score and concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Monterey Bay first half goals average: 0.7 per match
- Phoenix Rising first half goals average: 0.6 per match
- Monterey Bay first half goals conceded average: 0.5
- Phoenix Rising first half goals conceded average: 0.9
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is close to the line, but the high overall scoring environment gives a slight edge to over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Monterey Bay second half goals average: 0.7 (total 1.4 - first half 0.7)
- Phoenix Rising second half goals average: 0.7 (total 1.3 - first half 0.6)
- Combined second half goal average: 1.4
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's poor defensive record at home and Phoenix Rising's consistent away scoring make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Monterey Bay kept clean sheets in only 18% of home matches (2/11)
- Phoenix Rising failed to score in only 27% of away matches (3/11)
- Phoenix Rising scored in 73% of away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPhoenix Rising to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Phoenix Rising's away defensive record is weak, and Monterey Bay regularly scores at home, making an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Phoenix Rising kept clean sheets in only 18% of away matches (2/11)
- Monterey Bay scored in 73% of home matches (8/11)
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMonterey Bay to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monterey Bay's home scoring average is below the line, but Phoenix Rising's away defensive vulnerability gives them a chance to exceed 1.5 goals.
- Monterey Bay average home goals: 1.27 per match
- Monterey Bay scored 2+ goals in 36% of home matches (4/11)
- Phoenix Rising away goals conceded average: 1.45
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMonterey Bay over 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Phoenix Rising's away scoring average is modest, but Monterey Bay's leaky home defense could allow them to exceed 1.5 goals.
- Phoenix Rising average away goals: 1.0 per match
- Phoenix Rising scored 2+ goals in 27% of away matches (3/11)
- Monterey Bay home goals conceded average: 1.45
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostPhoenix Rising over 1.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 72% leaves no cushion vs our 70% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Phoenix Rising has struggled to convert win predictions

Phoenix Rising has fulfilled 1 of 4 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 48%, but only one match resulted in a win, with two losses and one draw. The current prediction of 45% sits within the historical range, but recent evidence suggests a lower conversion rate than expected.

Recent evidence for Phoenix Rising4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship