FC Jarfalla0FBK Karlstad3

HT 0–2Sat 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest

FBK Karlstad are clear favourites against relegation-threatened Jarfalla, with value in the away win (edge +5) and especially the double chance draw/away (edge +5.5).

The second-half over 1.5 goals also offers value (+7.4 edge), while over 2.5 and BTTS are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

FC Jarfalla are 14th in the 16-team Ettan Norra table with 15 points from 19 matches, four points above the relegation line.
Their last five league results are all defeats: 0-2 at home to Assyriska FF on 29 August, 0-2 away to Stockholm Internazionale on 21 August, 1-2 away to Sollentuna on 15 August, 1-4 at home to IF Karlstad on 8 August, and 0-4 at home to Stockholm Internazionale on 1 August. That run includes three home losses and a total of 14 goals conceded. The streak shows a clear defensive weakness, but it is based on recent form and does not guarantee another loss against a mid-table opponent.
- Lost 0-2 at home to Assyriska FF on 29 August 2026.
- Lost 0-2 away to Stockholm Internazionale on 21 August 2026.
- Lost 1-2 away to Sollentuna on 15 August 2026.
- Lost 1-4 at home to IF Karlstad on 8 August 2026.
FC Jarfalla's home record is 2 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses from 9 matches, with 9 goals scored and 23 conceded.
That home form is among the weakest in the division. They have lost their last three home league games by a combined score of 1-10, including a 0-4 defeat to Stockholm Internazionale on 1 August and a 1-4 loss to IF Karlstad on 8 August. The pattern suggests they are vulnerable at home, but the sample is limited to nine matches and includes some heavy defeats that may not repeat.
- Home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 7 losses in 9 matches.
- Scored 9 goals and conceded 23 at home.
- Lost last three home league matches by a combined score of 1-10.
Järfälla sit 14th with 15 points after 19 Ettan Norra matches, inside the direct-relegation places.
Their survival fight gives them a concrete incentive to push for points, particularly in the closing stages if the score is level or they trail. FBK Karlstad's sixth place with 31 points shows a clear gap, but the home side's need may influence how they approach the match.
- Järfälla are listed 14th with 15 points after 19 Ettan Norra matches.
- The table identifies positions 14 through 16 as direct-relegation places.
- FBK Karlstad are listed sixth with 31 points before the fixture.
ReportedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 23:56 · Europe/BucharestEttanTabell.se — Järfälla standingsettantabell.se · 30 Aug 2026
The only previous meeting between these teams this season was on 9 May 2026.
FBK Karlstad won that match 2-0 at home, with both goals coming in the first half. That result shows FBK Karlstad can control this opponent, but it was played four months ago and at a different venue, so its predictive value is limited.
- FBK Karlstad 2-0 Järfälla on 9 May 2026 in Ettan Norra.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FBK Karlstad's superior league position, better recent form, and head-to-head win make them favourites despite playing away.
- FBK Karlstad rank 6th with 31 points; Järfälla rank 14th with 15 points.
- Järfälla have lost their last 5 league matches, conceding 15 goals in that span.
- FBK Karlstad won the only H2H meeting this season 2-0 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFBK KarlstadEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Järfälla's poor overall and home form makes it unlikely they win, so backing the away side or draw is a strong option.
- Järfälla have lost 12 of 19 league matches this season.
- FBK Karlstad have lost only 6 of 19 league matches.
- Järfälla's home record is 2 wins, 0 draws, 7 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FBK KarlstadEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FBK Karlstad's better first-half performance metrics give them an edge to lead at the break.
- FBK Karlstad lead at half-time in 33% of recent matches, compared to 13% for Järfälla.
- Järfälla trail at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- FBK Karlstad have scored first-half goals in 6 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFBK KarlstadEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Järfälla's tendency to fade in the second half gives FBK Karlstad an advantage after the break.
- Järfälla have lost the second half in 6 of their last 10 matches.
- FBK Karlstad have won the second half in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Järfälla's second-half goal difference is -0.5 per match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFBK KarlstadEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the reverse fixture pattern is possible, but the probability is modest given away-game variability.
- FBK Karlstad led at half-time and won the match in 3 of their last 10 games.
- Järfälla have not led at half-time in any of their last 5 matches.
- FBK Karlstad won the reverse fixture 2-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonFBK Karlstad/FBK KarlstadEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring matches on average, and Järfälla's leaky defence increases the likelihood of multiple goals.
- Järfälla's league matches average 3.4 total goals (23 scored, 41 conceded in 19 games).
- FBK Karlstad's league matches average 3.3 total goals (31 scored, 31 conceded in 19 games).
- Järfälla have conceded 2.4 goals per game on average in recent form.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Järfälla's defensive frailties make it likely both find the net.
- Järfälla have scored in 7 of their last 10 league matches.
- FBK Karlstad have scored in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
- Järfälla have conceded in 9 of their last 10 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rates suggest a moderate chance of at least two goals before the break.
- Järfälla average 0.6 first-half goals for and 1.3 against in recent matches.
- FBK Karlstad average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.9 against in recent matches.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.75 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as Järfälla chase the game, increasing the chance of multiple goals.
- Järfälla concede heavily in second halves, with 1.1 goals against on average after the break.
- FBK Karlstad score 0.9 goals per second half on average.
- Total second-half goal average is 2.0 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FBK Karlstad's defensive record and Järfälla's scoring struggles make a clean sheet possible but not likely.
- FBK Karlstad kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 10 matches.
- Järfälla failed to score in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- FBK Karlstad kept a clean sheet against Järfälla in the reverse fixture.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Jarfalla not to scoreEstimated chance25%