Cheonan City1Hwaseong1

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 16:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Hwaseong are the stronger side and likely to avoid defeat, but the double chance odds offer no value.

The only positive edge is Both Teams to Score at 1.70 (model 60% vs implied 58.8%). Avoid first-half Over 0.5 goals and Hwaseong to win outright, as both are overpriced relative to our estimates.

Context

Hwaseong sits 5th with 39 points and is in the promotion playoff places, while Cheonan City is 14th with 21 points.
Hwaseong's attack has been productive, averaging 2.0 goals per game, and they have scored 36 goals in 23 matches. Cheonan City's defense has allowed 1.6 goals per game, conceding 32 in 23 matches. This matchup could lead to Hwaseong creating scoring opportunities, though Cheonan's home record shows only 10 goals conceded in 11 home games, which may limit the damage.
- Hwaseong averages 2.0 goals per game and has scored 36 goals in 23 matches.
- Cheonan City averages 1.6 goals conceded per game and has conceded 32 goals in 23 matches.
- Cheonan City's home record: 10 goals conceded in 11 home games.
Cheonan City is 14th in the table with 21 points from 23 matches.
Cheonan City's recent form is concerning: they lost to Jeonnam Dragons 0-1 on August 28, lost to Suwon Bluewings 0-1 at home on August 22, drew with Gimpo Citizen 1-1 on August 16, and lost to Seongnam FC 2-3 on August 8. This run of poor results may affect their confidence, but they have shown resilience with draws against Yongin City and Suwon City FC earlier in the season.
- Lost to Jeonnam Dragons 0-1 on 2026-08-28.
- Lost to Suwon Bluewings 0-1 at home on 2026-08-22.
- Drew with Gimpo Citizen 1-1 on 2026-08-16.
- Lost to Seongnam FC 2-3 on 2026-08-08.
Hwaseong is 5th in the league but their away record is less impressive than their home record.
Hwaseong's away record shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in 7 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 6. This suggests they are less dominant on the road, which could give Cheonan City a chance to compete. However, Hwaseong's overall quality and recent form may still make them favorites.
- Hwaseong away record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in 7 matches.
- Hwaseong away goals: 8 scored, 6 conceded.
Hwaseong enter this match knowing every remaining league fixture will be away from home due to stadium renovation. The travel and preparation routine is an unusual condition, but it does not change player availability or tactical approach.
- Hwaseong stated on 25 August that the 29 August Chungbuk Cheongju match would be its final home fixture of the 2026 season.
- The club said venue renovation for the 2027 National Sports Festival requires all remaining league fixtures from September to be played away.
- Hwaseong's official schedule lists Cheonan away on 5 September at Cheonan Sports Complex.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 16:19 · Europe/BucharestHwaseong FC: 2026 season home finale announcementwww.hwaseongfc.com · 25 Aug 2026Hwaseong FC schedule and resultswww.hwaseongfc.com · 2 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hwaseong or Draw

1.29fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Cheonan have won only 2 of 11 home matches, while Hwaseong have lost only 3 of 7 away, making Hwaseong or Draw a strong double chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency to score or concede in the first half, making Over 0.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hwaseong's superior league position, away form, and recent results make them the likelier winner, though Cheonan's home draws add uncertainty.
- Hwaseong rank 5th with 39 points, 11 wins in 23 matches; Cheonan rank 14th with 21 points, 4 wins.
- Hwaseong away record: 3W-1D-3L, 8 goals scored, 6 conceded in 7 away matches.
- Cheonan home record: 2W-6D-3L, 9 goals scored, 10 conceded in 11 home matches.
- Hwaseong last 5 form: W-L-D-D-W (8 points); Cheonan last 5: L-L-D-L-D (2 points).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHwaseongEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cheonan's poor home win rate and Hwaseong's solid away form make Hwaseong or Draw a strong double chance.
- Cheonan have won only 2 of 11 home matches this season.
- Hwaseong have lost only 3 of 7 away matches.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 1 Hwaseong win, 1 Cheonan win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHwaseong or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hwaseong's stronger first-half scoring and leading record gives them an edge, but draws are common.
- Hwaseong led at half-time in 40% of matches; Cheonan led in 7%.
- Hwaseong trailed at half-time in 20% of matches; Cheonan trailed in 33%.
- Hwaseong average 0.9 first-half goals vs Cheonan's 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHwaseongEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hwaseong's ability to lead at half-time and hold on for wins makes HT/FT Hwaseong possible but not highly probable.
- Hwaseong led at half-time in 40% of matches and won 48% overall.
- Cheonan led at half-time in only 7% and won 17% overall.
- Hwaseong away record: 3 wins in 7 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostHwaseong/HwaseongEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cheonan rarely lead at half-time, so Hwaseong or Draw is a strong first-half double chance.
- Cheonan led at half-time in only 7% of matches.
- Hwaseong trailed at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- H2H last 5 first-half results: 3 draws, 1 Hwaseong lead, 1 Cheonan lead.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHwaseong or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding averages, combined with high-scoring H2H history, support Over 2.5 goals.
- Cheonan average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match overall.
- Hwaseong average 2.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match overall.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (2-2, 2-2, 2-3, 2-1, 2-0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and their recent head-to-head meetings have seen goals at both ends.
- Cheonan have scored in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Hwaseong have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score or concede in the first half, making Over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Cheonan average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Hwaseong average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.5 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates suggest Over 1.5 second-half goals is a coin-flip, but the combined average leans slightly over.
- Cheonan average 0.7 second-half goals scored (1.2 total - 0.5 first half).
- Hwaseong average 1.1 second-half goals scored (2.0 total - 0.9 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.8 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cheonan's scoring record and Hwaseong's defensive lapses make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Cheonan have scored in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Hwaseong have kept clean sheets in only 3 of their last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: Cheonan scored in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCheonan City to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hwaseong's consistent scoring and Cheonan's defensive struggles make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Hwaseong have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Cheonan have kept clean sheets in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: Hwaseong scored in all 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHwaseong to scoreEstimated chance65%