Brann1Lillestrom2

HT 0–2Sat 5 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 73%–27%ShotsShots 24–8On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 12–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 05:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Brann are likely to win or avoid defeat, but the odds are fair with no edge.

The only value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.00 (+5 point edge). Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and first-half Over 0.5, which are all overpriced.

Context

Lillestrom sit sixth in the Eliteserien with 26 points from 18 matches, but their recent league results have been poor.
They have lost four of their last five league games, with the most recent a 4-1 home loss to Fredrikstad on 30 August. This run includes defeats to Rosenborg, Bodo/Glimt, and Viking, showing they are struggling against stronger sides. Brann are fifth with the same points total, so this match could be closely contested, but Lillestrom's current form suggests they may find it hard to get a result.
- Lillestrom lost 4-1 at home to Fredrikstad on 30 August 2026.
- They have lost four of their last five Eliteserien matches (LDLLL).
Brann are fifth in the Eliteserien with 26 points, and their home record is five wins and four losses from nine matches.
They beat Ham-Kam 3-0 on 16 August and Rosenborg 3-2 on 2 August at home, showing they can score freely in Bergen. Their only recent home league defeat was against Valerenga on 26 July, but they have otherwise been strong. Lillestrom have a decent away record with four wins from nine, so this will be a test for both sides.
- Brann beat Ham-Kam 3-0 at home on 16 August 2026.
- Brann beat Rosenborg 3-2 at home on 2 August 2026.
Brann midfielder E. Guðmundsson left the Sandefjord match injured on 30 August, with Kjartan Mar Kjartansson replacing him in the 65th minute.
His availability for Lillestrøm is unresolved. If he cannot play, Brann must change its central-midfield selection, which could affect how the team builds attacks.
- Brann reported that Eggert Aron Guðmundsson had to leave the Sandefjord match injured.
- Kjartan Mar Kjartansson replaced Guðmundsson in the 65th minute.
To watchSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 05:06 · Europe/BucharestBrann: Målløst på Jotun Arenawww.brann.no · 30 Aug 2026
The head-to-head record between these teams is mixed, but Brann have had the edge at home recently.
Brann beat Lillestrom 2-1 at home on 9 November 2024, and also won 2-0 in the NM Cupen in May 2023. However, Lillestrom won 2-0 at home in May 2024, so the away side can compete. This match is at Brann's stadium, where they have been strong recently, so that could give them an advantage.
- Brann beat Lillestrom 2-1 at home on 9 November 2024.
- Brann beat Lillestrom 2-0 at home in the NM Cupen on 20 May 2023.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Brann

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Brann's home form and Lillestrom's poor recent league run support the hosts, but the odds are close to fair value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's stronger home form and Lillestrom's poor recent league run give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home advantage.
- Brann home record: 5W 0D 4L, 17 goals scored, 13 conceded in 9 home matches
- Lillestrom away record: 4W 2D 3L, 9 goals scored, 10 conceded in 9 away matches
- Brann last 5 Eliteserien matches: 3W 1D 1L; Lillestrom last 5: 1W 1D 3L
- H2H last 5: Brann 2W, Lillestrom 2W, 1D; Brann won last home meeting 2-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBrannEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's home strength and Lillestrom's poor away form make the double chance a high-probability safety net.
- Brann home record: 5W 0D 4L, 17 goals scored, 13 conceded in 9 home matches
- Lillestrom away record: 4W 2D 3L, 9 goals scored, 10 conceded in 9 away matches
- Brann last 5 Eliteserien matches: 3W 1D 1L; Lillestrom last 5: 1W 1D 3L
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBrann or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann's superior first-half scoring and Lillestrom's tendency to trail at the break give the hosts a slight edge.
- Brann led at half-time in 53% of matches; Lillestrom trailed at half-time in 47%
- Brann average 0.8 first-half goals scored vs Lillestrom's 0.5
- Lillestrom average 0.9 first-half goals conceded vs Brann's 0.5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBrannEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann's tendency to lead at half-time and win at home makes HT/FT Brann/Brann a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Brann led at half-time in 53% of matches and won 44% of matches overall
- Lillestrom trailed at half-time in 47% and lost 44% of matches overall
- Brann home record: 5W 0D 4L; Lillestrom away record: 4W 2D 3L
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBrann/BrannEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's attacking output at home and Lillestrom's defensive vulnerability point to a high-scoring contest.
- Brann average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall
- Lillestrom average 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match overall
- Brann home matches average 3.33 total goals (17 scored + 13 conceded in 9 games)
- Lillestrom away matches average 2.11 total goals (9 scored + 10 conceded in 9 games)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a likely outcome.
- Brann have scored in 7 of their last 8 Eliteserien matches
- Lillestrom have scored in 5 of their last 7 Eliteserien matches
- Brann have conceded in 6 of their last 8 Eliteserien matches
- Lillestrom have conceded in 7 of their last 8 Eliteserien matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates suggest at least one goal before the break.
- Brann average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Lillestrom average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded
- Brann led at half-time in 53% of matches; Lillestrom trailed at half-time in 47%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring rates of both teams support over 1.5 goals after the break.
- Brann average 1.1 second-half goals scored (1.9 total - 0.8 first half)
- Lillestrom average 0.6 second-half goals scored (1.1 total - 0.5 first half)
- Brann average 0.8 second-half goals conceded (1.3 total - 0.5 first half)
- Lillestrom average 0.8 second-half goals conceded (1.7 total - 0.9 first half)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede a high number of corners, making over 9.5 corners a coin-flip proposition.
- Brann average 6.5 corners per match; Lillestrom average 5.8 corners per match
- Brann average 5.0 opponent corners per match; Lillestrom average 5.3 opponent corners per match
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: 11.8 (Brann) and 11.1 (Lillestrom)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages hover around the 8.5 line, making this a near 50/50 market.
- Brann average 4.9 shots on target per match; Lillestrom average 3.6
- Brann average 4.7 opponent shots on target per match; Lillestrom average 5.4
- Combined average shots on target in matches involving these teams: 9.6 (Brann) and 9.0 (Lillestrom)
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 35% for Brann -1 leaves no cushion vs our estimated 30% win-by-2+ probability; the line is priced efficiently.

Prediction history

Brann has been highly reliable when projected for over 2.5 goals

Brann's over 2.5 goals projections have been fulfilled in 7 of 8 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 62.5%, with an expected 5 fulfilled predictions, indicating performance above expectation. The current prediction of 60% sits within the historical range of 60-75%.

Recent evidence for Brann8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·UEFA Europa Conference League

Brann3-1