Lyon3Auxerre1

HT 2–1Fri 4 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 21–8On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 9–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 11:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Lyon are favored but the odds offer no value on the home win or double chance.

The best betting edge is on both teams to score (Yes) at 1.78, with a model probability of 65% versus an implied 56%. Avoid the match winner and first-half goals markets due to negative edges.

Context

Auxerre is in the relegation zone after two rounds, with no points and a -5 goal difference.
Auxerre lost 3-1 at home to Angers on August 29 and 5-2 away to Lens on August 22. The heavy defeats suggest defensive problems, especially away from home. Lyon's attack, which has scored three goals in two league games, may find space against this back line.
- Auxerre lost 3-1 at home to Angers on August 29.
- Auxerre lost 5-2 away to Lens on August 22.
- Auxerre has conceded 8 goals in 2 league matches.
Lyon is fourth in Ligue 1 with a win and a draw, scoring three goals and conceding one.
Lyon drew 1-1 at home to Le Havre on August 29 and won 2-0 away to Toulouse on August 22. They have been solid defensively, conceding only once in the league. At home, they will expect to control the game against a struggling Auxerre side.
- Lyon drew 1-1 at home to Le Havre on August 29.
- Lyon won 2-0 away to Toulouse on August 22.
- Lyon has conceded 1 goal in 2 league matches.
Lyon attacker M. Fofana has been managing an adductor problem, starting 3 of the last 5 available lineups and totalling 320 minutes across 5 appearances.
He played the full game against Fenerbahçe despite the issue, then entered only in the 62nd minute against Le Havre on 29 August. His workload remains worth checking before Friday, and a reduced role could alter Lyon's wing selection and chance creation.
- Paulo Fonseca said Fofana had an adductor problem before the Fenerbahçe match and made the effort to play the full game.
- Lyon's official match updates recorded Fofana entering against Le Havre in the 62nd minute on 29 August.
- M. Fofana started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 320 minutes across 5 appearances.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 11:50 · Europe/BucharestOlympique & Lyonnais — Fofana preserved against Le Havrewww.olympique-et-lyonnais.com · 30 Aug 2026
The teams have met five times in Ligue 1 since 2023, with Lyon winning twice and two draws.
In the last meeting on April 25, 2026, Lyon won 3-2 at home. The previous match in November 2025 ended 0-0. Lyon has not lost to Auxerre in their last four encounters, which may give them confidence in this fixture.
- Lyon beat Auxerre 3-2 at home on April 25, 2026.
- The previous meeting on November 23, 2025 ended 0-0.
- Lyon has not lost to Auxerre in their last four matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Lyon

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Lyon's stronger league start and home advantage, combined with Auxerre's poor away record, support a home win.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lyon or Draw

1.13fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Lyon's home solidity and Auxerre's poor form make a Lyon win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.6 per match, but the odds offer no value at 1.25.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lyon's stronger league start and home advantage, combined with Auxerre's poor away record, support a home win.
- Lyon home form: 1 draw in 1 home league match (1-1 vs Le Havre), but overall 1W 1D in Ligue 1.
- Auxerre away form: 0W 0D 1L in 1 away league match (2-5 vs Lens), overall 0W 0D 2L.
- H2H last 5: Lyon 2W, Auxerre 1W, 2D; Lyon won the most recent meeting 3-2 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLyonEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lyon's home solidity and Auxerre's poor form make a Lyon win or draw highly likely.
- Lyon have not lost at home in Ligue 1 this season (1 draw).
- Auxerre have lost both league matches this season.
- H2H: Lyon unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings (2W 2D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLyon or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lyon's tendency to start strongly at home gives them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Lyon led at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches.
- Auxerre trailed at half-time in only 13% of their last 15 matches.
- H2H: Lyon led at half-time in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLyonEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If Lyon dominate early, they could maintain the lead, but Auxerre's resilience makes this a lower-probability outcome.
- Lyon have won both halves in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Auxerre have lost both halves in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- H2H: Lyon won the most recent meeting 3-2 after leading at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLyon/LyonEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring and conceding averages, suggesting an open game with multiple goals.
- Lyon average 1.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match in last 15.
- Auxerre average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in last 15.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show consistent scoring ability, and their defensive records are not strong.
- Lyon have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Auxerre have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, making at least one goal likely before the break.
- Lyon average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Auxerre average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.6 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have seen more goals for both teams, supporting over 1.5 in the second half.
- Lyon average 1.2 second-half goals scored (total 1.9 - 0.7 first half).
- Auxerre average 0.9 second-half goals scored (total 1.8 - 0.9 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 2.1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the combined average suggests over 9.5 is plausible.
- Lyon average 7.3 corners per match, Auxerre average 5.0.
- Combined average corners per match is 12.3.
- Recent H2H matches have had 8-12 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's disciplinary record and the competitive nature of the match could lead to multiple cards.
- Lyon average 0.9 yellow cards per match, Auxerre average 1.6.
- Combined average yellow cards is 2.5, but recent matches have seen more.
- Auxerre have received 3+ cards in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%