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Lyon

Lyon - Auxerre

Auxerre
🇫🇷 Ligue 1Finished
Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 13:00

Finished Snapshot

FT3-2
FinishedSettled

Halftime

1-1

Predictions

4W · 6L · 0P

Edges

0W · 0L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

55%-45%

Shots

12-9

Shots on Target

6-2

Corners

6-2

Quick Take

Lyon clear favorites with historic dominance (21-3 H2H) against bottom-table Auxerre (4-match goal drought, worst league attack), but recent form dip (WWDLD), manager suspension, and triple defensive absences limit conviction on a straight win.

Context Signals

Model probabilities

Double ChanceLyon or Draw (1X)82%Highwon

Massive structural home/away edge (Lyon 10W home vs Auxerre 1W away) combined with dominant H2H psychology make 1X the safest coverage of the two most likely outcomes.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Away Goals TotalAuxerre Under 1.572%Highlost

Auxerre team goals Under 1.5 is the cleanest statistical angle - weakest away attack in the league, active scoreless streak, facing a top-tier home defense.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 1.568%Mediumlost

Both teams show low first-half output in their recent form averages, and Lyon in particular is a slow-starting side - classic Under 1.5 HT profile.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 4.562%Lowlost

Both sides show elevated card numbers in recent form and Auxerre's desperate must-get-points context typically amplifies fouling intensity - kept LOW because card markets are highly variable.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Lean

Match WinnerLyon60%Mediumwon

Tactical matchup and structural edge strongly favor Lyon at home against the bottom-of-table side, but the triple suspension and Lyon's recent stutter prevent a HIGH confidence call on the straight win.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Asian HandicapLyon -0.560%Mediumwon

Equivalent to backing Lyon to win - structural gap in quality and H2H dominance justify the pick but recent draw-heavy Auxerre (10 draws in 30 games) pulls confidence to MEDIUM.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.558%Mediumlost

Lyon's elite home defensive record combined with Auxerre's league-worst attack (lowest goals in division) pushes expected totals below 2.5, the strongest motivation/structural signal.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Both Teams to ScoreNo57%Mediumlost

Auxerre's zero-scorer streak and worst-in-league attack against Lyon's strong home defense point to BTTS No, though not at HIGH confidence given the 2-2 in their most recent home meeting.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Corners Over/UnderUnder 9.555%Lowwon

Both teams' recent corner averages combine below 9.5, and Auxerre's reactive away approach further caps attacking volume - LOW confidence as corner stats are volatile.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Home Clean SheetYes (Lyon clean sheet)48%Mediumlost

Lyon's home defensive strength vs Auxerre's anemic away attack and goal drought raise clean-sheet probability well above the baseline; the suspension burden caps it at MEDIUM.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

Goals Over/Under Under 2.5:MEDIUM confidence prediction (58%) vs implied 53.2% at 1.88 odds yields only +4.8pt edge, below the 5pt threshold for MEDIUM confidence. Tight margin with no genuine mispricing.
Both Teams to Score No:MEDIUM confidence prediction (57%) vs implied 52.4% at 1.91 odds yields only +4.6pt edge, below the 5pt threshold. Insufficient value to warrant backing.
Total Goals Away Auxerre Under 1.5:Market odds (1.25) imply 80% probability—substantially higher than our HIGH confidence estimate (72%). Market disagrees strongly with prediction; this is a trap. Do not recommend.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Lyon face Auxerre in what appears a one-sided affair on paper: the hosts command a historic 21-3 head-to-head record and are undefeated in 28 of their last 31 meetings, while Auxerre sit in absolute relegation crisis at the bottom of Ligue 1 with just 7 points from 30 matches. The away side's attacking numbers are alarming—lowest goals in the division (23 for the season) and a recent 4-match goalless streak. Lyon's home defensive record is equally stark: 10 goals conceded in 14 matches (0.71 per game). However, Lyon's own form has softened considerably heading into this fixture.

Recent Form

Lyon

Lyon

W2-1Paris Saint GermainApr 19L1
W2-0LorientApr 12L1
D0-0AngersApr 5L1
L1-2MonacoMar 22L1
L0-2Celta VigoMar 19UEF
D0-0Le HavreMar 15L1
D1-1Celta VigoMar 12UEF
D1-1Paris FCMar 8L1
L2-3MarseilleMar 1L1
L1-3StrasbourgFeb 22L1
Auxerre

Auxerre

D2-2MonacoApr 19L1
D0-0NantesApr 11L1
D1-1Le HavreApr 5L1
W3-0Stade Brestois 29Mar 21L1
L0-1MarseilleMar 13L1
D0-0StrasbourgMar 7L1
D2-2LorientMar 1L1
L0-3RennesFeb 22L1
W3-1MetzFeb 15L1
D0-0Paris FCFeb 8L1

League Table

Ligue 1 2025/2026
#TeamPWDLGF-GAPts
4
LyonLyon
Champions League Qualification
30166845-3054
16
AuxerreAuxerre
Relegation Playoffs
305101525-3925
29pt gap between teamsAuxerre in relegation zone

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W
D0-0AuxerrevLyonNov 23, 2025L1
W1-3AuxerrevLyonApr 13, 2025L1
D2-2LyonvAuxerreOct 27, 2024L1
L2-1AuxerrevLyonFeb 17, 2023L1
W2-1LyonvAuxerreAug 31, 2022L1
2.8 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Lyon

1 out
Attackers4
Midfielders1/14
×#5
Defenders9
Goalkeeper5
#5 O. Mangala — Knee injury

Auxerre

30 available
Attackers6
Midfielders10
Defenders10
Goalkeeper4