Bodo/Glimt4Rosenborg2

HT 1–1Sun 30 Aug 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–3–167%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 24–11On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 12–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 05:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Bodø/Glimt are strong favourites at home, but the 1.30 price offers no value.

The best edges are Bodø/Glimt to lead at half-time (1.65, +4.4pts) and Over 3.5 goals (1.78, +3.8pts). Avoid BTTS Yes and the short-priced home win.

Context

Bodo/Glimt are top of Eliteserien with 41 points and a 17-point lead. Rosenborg sit seventh with 24 points.
Bodo/Glimt's home record is strong: seven wins and one loss in eight matches, with 24 goals scored and only two conceded. Rosenborg's away form is weak: two wins, one draw, and five losses, scoring seven and conceding twelve. This contrast suggests Bodo/Glimt can control the match at home, but Rosenborg's recent league wins show they can still compete.
- Bodo/Glimt home record: 7 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 24 goals for, 2 against.
- Rosenborg away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, 7 goals for, 12 against.
Rosenborg head coach Freyr Alexandersson replaced the previous interim setup and has a contract through 2029. Rosenborg's August assessment described a side that quickly developed a clear identity and was very attacking both with and without the ball.
Alexandersson's high-pressing approach changes how Rosenborg will defend from the front and attempt to force turnovers in Bodø/Glimt's build-up. The assessment points to a defined aggressive structure, but it does not specify how that structure will hold against a team that has just completed a Champions League playoff and a cup tie.
- Rosenborg appointed Freyr Alexandersson as head coach on a contract through the 2029 season.
- Rosenborg’s August assessment said the side had quickly developed a clear identity and was very attacking both with and without the ball.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:58 · Europe/BucharestAlexandersson appointed Rosenborg head coachwww.rbk.no · 17 Jun 2026Rosenborg’s July awardswww.rbk.no · 27 Aug 2026
Bodo/Glimt are first in Eliteserien with 41 points from 17 matches.
In their last five league games, Bodo/Glimt beat Valerenga 2-1, Lillestrom 4-0, Sandefjord 3-0, Ham-Kam 3-0, and Fredrikstad 1-0. That run shows consistent scoring and a solid defense. Rosenborg will need to disrupt that rhythm, but Bodo/Glimt's recent results make them clear favorites.
- Bodo/Glimt last five Eliteserien results: W 2-1 vs Valerenga (Aug 8), W 4-0 vs Lillestrom (Jul 31), W 3-0 vs Sandefjord (Jul 26), W 3-0 vs Ham-Kam (Jul 22), W 1-0 vs Fredrikstad (Jul 17).
Rosenborg are seventh in Eliteserien with 24 points, but their away record is much weaker than their home form.
Rosenborg's away defeats include 3-2 at Brann on August 2 and 3-0 at Viking on May 1. They have only two away wins all season. Facing the league leaders away from home will be difficult, especially since Bodo/Glimt have been so strong at their own stadium.
- Rosenborg away losses: 3-2 at Brann (Aug 2), 3-0 at Viking (May 1), 2-0 at KFUM Oslo (May 25).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's dominant home form and Rosenborg's poor away record make a home win highly likely.
- Bodo/Glimt home record this season: 7 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 24 goals scored, 2 conceded in 8 matches
- Bodo/Glimt last 5 matches: 5 wins, 16 goals scored, 2 conceded
- Rosenborg away record this season: 2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, 7 goals scored, 12 conceded in 8 matches
- Bodo/Glimt are 17 points ahead of Rosenborg in the league table
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBodo/GlimtEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong home performances and Rosenborg's away struggles support a handicap win, though Rosenborg's occasional competitiveness tempers confidence.
- Bodo/Glimt average winning margin at home: 2.75 goals (24 scored, 2 conceded in 8 matches)
- Rosenborg average losing margin away: 0.625 goals (7 scored, 12 conceded in 8 matches)
- Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 in the most recent home H2H meeting
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonBodo/Glimt -1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong first-half performances and Rosenborg's tendency to trail make a home half-time lead likely.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 13 of their last 15 matches (87%)
- Rosenborg trailed at half-time in 4 of their last 15 matches (27%)
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.5 first-half goals, Rosenborg average 0.6 first-half goals conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBodo/GlimtEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's pattern of leading at half-time and winning, combined with home advantage, supports the HT/FT double.
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time and won the match in 12 of their last 15 matches
- Rosenborg trailed at half-time and lost the match in 3 of their last 15 matches
- Bodo/Glimt home record: 7 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBodo/Glimt/Bodo/GlimtEstimated chance55%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring rates and recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Bodo/Glimt average 3.1 goals scored per match in last 15 matches
- Rosenborg average 2.3 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per match in last 15 matches
- Bodo/Glimt home matches average 3.25 total goals (24 scored, 2 conceded in 8 matches)
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 2-2, 1-1, 4-0, 2-3, 1-3 (average 3.8 total goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rosenborg's consistent scoring and Bodo/Glimt's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Rosenborg have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches
- Bodo/Glimt have conceded in 6 of their last 15 matches
- Rosenborg average 1.4 goals conceded per match, but Bodo/Glimt average 3.1 goals scored
- Last two H2H meetings ended 2-2 and 1-1
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bodo/Glimt's strong home defense gives them a good chance of a clean sheet, but Rosenborg's scoring threat reduces confidence.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept clean sheets in 9 of their last 15 matches
- Bodo/Glimt home record: 2 goals conceded in 8 matches (0.25 per match)
- Rosenborg away record: 7 goals scored in 8 matches (0.875 per match)
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRosenborg not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Bodo/Glimt's early dominance suggests multiple first-half goals.
- Bodo/Glimt average 1.5 first-half goals per match in last 15 matches
- Rosenborg average 1.0 first-half goals per match in last 15 matches
- Bodo/Glimt led at half-time in 87% of their last 15 matches
- Rosenborg trailed at half-time in 27% of their last 15 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalspushOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, but the low corner count in the last H2H meeting makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Bodo/Glimt average 5.9 corners per match, Rosenborg average 6.0 corners per match
- Combined average corners in their matches: 11.9
- Last H2H meeting had 6 corners total (0 for Rosenborg, 6 for Bodo/Glimt)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a high volume of shots on target, supporting over 8.5 total shots on target.
- Bodo/Glimt average 6.5 shots on target per match
- Rosenborg average 5.3 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 11.8
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 72% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Bodo/Glimt has been highly reliable when projected to win

Bodo/Glimt fulfilled 8 of 9 recent win predictions. The average estimated probability was 63.1%, while the expected fulfilled count was 5.7, indicating overperformance. The only miss was a draw, and the current 72% probability sits within the historical range of 45% to 78%.

Recent evidence for Bodo/Glimt9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien