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Predictions graded

AIK Stockholm3Hammarby2

HT 1–2Sun 30 Aug 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 11–30On targetOn target 6–11CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 00:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby have failed to score in their last three league visits to AIK, yet the market prices them as strong favourites.

The best value is on AIK or draw (2.38) and under 2.5 goals (2.40), with a first-half draw (2.50) also offering edge. Avoid Hammarby -1 and over 2.5 goals, which contradict the H2H pattern.

Context

AIK sit sixth with 28 points, but their home record is poor: three wins and four losses in seven matches, with only seven goals scored and 12 conceded.
Hammarby's away record is solid, with three wins, two draws, and three losses in eight matches, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their recent away form is even better: they beat Kalmar FF 4-0 on 16 August and drew 1-1 with IF Brommapojkarna on 26 July. AIK's home defeats include a 3-0 loss to Sirius on 30 May and a 4-2 loss to Djurgardens IF on 10 May. This contrast suggests Hammarby can exploit AIK's home vulnerability.
- AIK home record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses in 7 matches, 7 goals for, 12 against.
- Hammarby away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 8 matches, 11 goals for, 10 against.
- Hammarby's last away league match: 4-0 win at Kalmar FF on 16 August 2026.
- AIK's last home league match: 0-3 loss to Sirius on 30 May 2026.
AIK's defensive line is missing several senior options. Ibrahim Cissé is rehabilitating an ankle injury, Sotirios Papagiannopoulos had knee surgery on 18 August, and Diogo Tomás had hand surgery on 21 August, while Mads Thychosen remains out with a thigh injury.
The concentration of confirmed absences narrows AIK's defensive selection and cover, particularly in wide defensive roles and set-piece marking. Without these players, AIK may have to use less experienced replacements or shift players out of position, which could affect their defensive organisation against Hammarby's attack.
- AIK confirmed that Ibrahim Cissé is rehabilitating an ankle injury.
- Sotirios Papagiannopoulos underwent knee surgery on 18 August and faces a longer rehabilitation period.
- Diogo Tomás underwent hand surgery on 21 August, while Mads Thychosen remains in rehabilitation for a thigh injury.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 02:17 · Europe/BucharestAIK squad status, week 35www.aikfotboll.se · 26 Aug 2026
Hammarby are second in the table with 36 points and have scored 42 goals in 18 league matches, the second-highest total in the division.
In their last five league matches, Hammarby scored 13 goals: 2-0 vs Gais, 4-0 vs Kalmar FF, 3-0 vs BK Hacken, 1-1 vs IF Brommapojkarna, and 4-0 vs Degerfors IF. They average 1.8 goals per game overall and 1.4 away from home. AIK have conceded 25 goals in 17 matches, including 12 in seven home games. Hammarby's attacking output could trouble AIK's defense.
- Hammarby scored 13 goals in their last five league matches.
- Hammarby average 1.8 goals per game overall and 1.4 away from home.
- AIK have conceded 25 goals in 17 league matches, 12 at home.
AIK are sixth with 28 points, but their away record is strong: five wins, four draws, and one loss in ten matches.
AIK's last four league results: 3-1 win at Djurgardens IF, 4-3 win at Orgryte IS, 0-3 home loss to Orgryte IS, and 0-0 draw at BK Hacken. Their only home win in that stretch was against Gais on 18 July. This pattern suggests AIK perform better away from home, which could be a factor in this derby.
- AIK's last four league matches: W, W, L, D, with the loss at home.
- AIK away record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss in 10 matches.
- AIK home record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses in 7 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The H2H psychology strongly favors AIK at home, as Hammarby have struggled to score in recent visits, giving AIK a slight edge despite their overall home inconsistency.
- AIK won the reverse fixture 2-1 away on 24 May 2026.
- Hammarby have failed to score in their last three league visits to AIK (0-0, 1-0, 2-0).
- AIK home record this season: 3W-0D-4L, but those wins include a 2-0 derby win over Hammarby in 2023.
- Hammarby away record: 3W-2D-3L, with only 11 goals scored in 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAIK StockholmEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Hammarby's away struggles and AIK's recent home dominance in this fixture, the double chance for AIK or draw is a solid value.
- AIK have not lost at home to Hammarby in the last three league meetings (2W, 1D).
- Hammarby away form is mediocre: 3W-2D-3L.
- AIK's home losses this season have come against teams in the top half, but Hammarby's away scoring is low (1.38 goals per away game).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAIK Stockholm or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The derby often starts tight, and AIK's low first-half scoring suggests a draw at half-time is the most probable outcome.
- AIK have led at half-time in only 20% of matches; Hammarby in 53%.
- In the last three AIK home derbies vs Hammarby, half-time results were: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0.
- Hammarby's away first-half record: 3W-3D-2L.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an AIK win is a plausible scenario given the historical pattern of AIK scoring late in this fixture.
- AIK have won 2 of their last 3 home derbies vs Hammarby, both with a 0-0 half-time score.
- Hammarby's away second-half performance is weaker (0.63 goals scored).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AIK StockholmEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of Hammarby failing to score at AIK is strong, making 'No' on both teams to score likely.
- Hammarby failed to score in their last three away league derbies at AIK.
- AIK have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 home matches against Hammarby.
- Hammarby average 1.38 goals per away game, but against AIK they have been shut out recently.
- AIK's home goals conceded average is 1.71, but that includes heavy losses to top teams.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The historical low-scoring nature of this fixture at AIK's ground supports the under 2.5 goals line.
- Last three AIK home derbies vs Hammarby: 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 (all under 2.5).
- Hammarby away matches average 2.63 total goals, but against AIK they have been low-scoring.
- AIK home matches average 2.71 total goals, but derby matches tend to be tighter.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While AIK's overall home defensive record is poor, the specific H2H trend of shutting out Hammarby gives a moderate chance of a clean sheet.
- AIK kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 home derbies vs Hammarby.
- Hammarby have scored only 11 goals in 8 away games this season.
- AIK's overall home clean sheet rate is 14% (1 in 7), but derby context improves their defensive focus.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHammarby not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, and the derby intensity often leads to a cautious first half, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- AIK average 0.7 first-half goals per match; Hammarby average 0.9.
- In the last three AIK home derbies vs Hammarby, first-half goals were: 0, 0, 1.
- Hammarby's away first-half goals average is 0.75.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
There is a slight lean towards more goals in the second half as the game opens up, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- AIK score 1.0 second-half goals on average; Hammarby concede 0.7 second-half goals away.
- In the last three AIK home derbies, second-half goals were: 0, 1, 2.
- Hammarby's away second-half goals average is 0.63.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the derby intensity may push the total over 9.5, but the margin is thin.
- AIK average 4.4 corners per match; Hammarby average 7.0.
- Combined average corners in AIK matches: 9.4; in Hammarby matches: 10.4.
- In the last AIK home derby vs Hammarby (2025), total corners were 9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The derby atmosphere and both teams' disciplinary records suggest a higher likelihood of over 3.5 total cards.
- AIK average 2.5 yellow cards per match; Hammarby average 1.4.
- In the last AIK home derby vs Hammarby (2025), total cards were 4.
- Derby matches typically see higher card counts due to intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 38% for AIK and 24% for Hammarby; the price already reflects the market's strong favourite status.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2Hammarby FFvAIK StockholmMay 24, 2026ALL

L2-1Hammarby FFvAIK StockholmOct 19, 2025ALL

D0-0AIK StockholmvHammarby FFMay 18, 2025ALL

W1-0AIK StockholmvHammarby FFSep 29, 2024ALL

L2-1Hammarby FFvAIK StockholmMay 19, 2024ALL

AIK Stockholm: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Allsvenskan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	AIK Stockholm	17	8	4	5	25-25	28	WWLDW
2	Hammarby Qualifying	18	11	3	4	42-15	36	WWWDW

8pt gap between teams

Recent Form

AIK Stockholm

W3-0PiteåAug 20SVE

W3-1Djurgardens IFAug 16ALL

W4-3Orgryte ISAug 8ALL

L0-3Orgryte ISAug 2ALL

D0-0BK HackenJul 27ALL

W2-0GaisJul 18ALL

W2-1Mjallby AIFJul 11ALL

W2-1IFK GoteborgJul 5ALL

W3-2Vasteras SK FKJun 28FRI

L0-2Kalmar FFJun 22FRI

L0-3SiriusMay 30ALL

W2-1Hammarby FFMay 24ALL

D1-1Vasteras SK FKMay 17ALL

L2-4Djurgardens IFMay 10ALL

D1-1IF ElfsborgMay 3ALL

Hammarby

W2-0GaisAug 23ALL

W4-0Kalmar FFAug 16ALL

L0-1Raków CzęstochowaAug 13UEF

W3-0BK HackenAug 9ALL

D0-0Raków CzęstochowaAug 6UEF

L1-3AnderlechtJul 30UEF

D1-1IF BrommapojkarnaJul 26ALL

D1-1AnderlechtJul 23UEF

W4-0Degerfors IFJul 19ALL

W2-0Kalmar FFJul 12ALL

W2-1IF ElfsborgJul 5ALL

W4-1BK HackenJun 24FRI

L2-3BK HackenMay 31ALL

L1-2AIK StockholmMay 24ALL

L0-2GaisMay 20ALL

Squad & Injuries

AIK Stockholm

37 available

Attackers9

Midfielders13

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Hammarby

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

AIK Stockholm3Hammarby2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm or Draw

Draw

No

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.55

@ 1.22, draw no bet

@ 2.50

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

AIK Stockholm

Hammarby

Squad & Injuries

AIK Stockholm

Hammarby