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Predictions graded

Inter Miami7CF Montreal1

HT 2–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–192%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 20–10On targetOn target 11–5CornersCorners 6–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 16:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Inter Miami are favored but overpriced at 1.40 given their four-match winless run and defensive issues; our model gives them only a 55% win probability.

The best value is avoiding the main markets and considering second half goals over 1.5 at 1.75, though the edge is minimal.

Context

Inter Miami's last five results: L, D, L, L, L.
- Coach Hoyos accepted responsibility after the August 22 loss to Toronto.
- The team has not kept a clean sheet since May.
Inter Miami have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- They have not kept a clean sheet in their last 13 matches.
- They have conceded in 8 of 9 home matches this season.
CF Montreal's away record: W2 D1 L7.
- They have conceded 26 goals in 10 away matches.
- They have lost 7 of their last 10 away matches.
Inter Miami won 1-0 at CF Montreal on July 25, 2026.
- They won 4-2 at home in 2025.
- They won 4-1 away in July 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Inter Miami

1.41fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

Inter Miami's superior H2H record and home advantage are offset by their current winless run, making the 1.40 price too short relative to our 55% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Inter Miami or Draw

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

−8.0ppshort

Inter Miami's strong home form and CF Montreal's poor away record make a home loss unlikely, but the 1.14 odds offer no value over our 80% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Inter Miami's high-scoring games and defensive vulnerabilities make over 2.5 goals likely, but the odds offer no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, but the odds are too short to justify a bet.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CF Montreal to score

1.08fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Inter Miami's long run without a clean sheet makes a home clean sheet unlikely, but the odds are prohibitive.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be more active in the second half, but the odds do not offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's superior recent H2H record and stronger overall form, combined with CF Montreal's poor away record, make them the likely winners.
- Inter Miami have won the last three MLS meetings against CF Montreal, including a 1-0 away win on July 25, 2026.
- Inter Miami average 2.5 goals per game over their last 15 matches, while CF Montreal average 1.7.
- Inter Miami are 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 39 points, while CF Montreal are 13th with 21 points.
- CF Montreal have lost 7 of 10 away matches this season, conceding 26 goals.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonInter MiamiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Inter Miami's strong home form and CF Montreal's poor away record, the home side is very unlikely to lose.
- Inter Miami have only lost 2 of 9 home matches this season.
- CF Montreal have won only 2 of 10 away matches this season.
- Inter Miami have won the last three H2H meetings, but their recent form is winless in four matches.
- Inter Miami's home record: 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonInter Miami or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's superior first-half scoring record and CF Montreal's tendency to trail at the break give the home side an edge, but the probability remains modest.
- Inter Miami have led at half-time in 53% of their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal have trailed at half-time in 27% of their last 15 matches.
- Inter Miami average 1.5 first-half goals per game, while CF Montreal average 0.5.
- In the last H2H meeting, Inter Miami led 1-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonInter MiamiEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's ability to start strong and CF Montreal's poor away form support this outcome, but Inter Miami's recent winless run reduces confidence.
- Inter Miami have led at half-time and won the match in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Inter Miami have won the last three H2H meetings, but their recent form is winless in four.
- CF Montreal have lost 7 of 10 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonInter Miami/Inter MiamiEstimated chance35%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's high-scoring games, driven by their attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities, make over 2.5 goals likely.
- Inter Miami's last 15 matches average 4.7 total goals per game (2.5 for, 2.2 against).
- CF Montreal's last 15 matches average 3.1 total goals per game (1.7 for, 1.4 against).
- Inter Miami have seen over 2.5 goals in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal have seen over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Inter Miami's defensive struggles suggest CF Montreal can find the net.
- Inter Miami have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Inter Miami have kept only one clean sheet in their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal have failed to score in only 4 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's long run without a clean sheet and CF Montreal's ability to score away make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Inter Miami have not kept a clean sheet in their last 13 matches.
- Inter Miami have conceded in 8 of 9 home matches this season.
- CF Montreal have scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
- Inter Miami's last clean sheet was a 2-0 win over Portland Timbers in May 2026.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCF Montreal to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's strong first-half scoring record suggests a possibility of multiple first-half goals, but CF Montreal's low first-half output tempers confidence.
- Inter Miami average 1.5 first-half goals per game over their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal average 0.5 first-half goals per game over their last 15 matches.
- Inter Miami have led at half-time in 53% of their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal have trailed at half-time in 27% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more active in the second half, with Inter Miami's attacking pressure likely to produce goals after the break.
- Inter Miami's matches average 2.2 second-half goals per game (total goals minus first-half goals).
- CF Montreal's matches average 2.1 second-half goals per game.
- Inter Miami have scored in the second half in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal have conceded in the second half in 10 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and the combined average suggests a total above 9.5 is plausible.
- Inter Miami average 5.8 corners per game over their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal average 6.3 corners per game over their last 15 matches.
- Combined average corners per game: 12.1.
- In the last H2H meeting, total corners were 11 (Inter Miami 6, CF Montreal 5).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a solid number of shots on target, and the combined average supports a total above 9.5.
- Inter Miami average 6.4 shots on target per game over their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal average 5.5 shots on target per game over their last 15 matches.
- Combined average shots on target per game: 11.9.
- In the last H2H meeting, total shots on target were 5 (Inter Miami 2, CF Montreal 3).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the combined average suggests a total above 4.5 cards is possible.
- Inter Miami average 2.7 yellow cards per game over their last 15 matches.
- CF Montreal average 2.2 yellow cards per game over their last 15 matches.
- Combined average yellow cards per game: 4.9.
- In the last H2H meeting, total yellow cards were 2 (Inter Miami 2, CF Montreal 0).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 71% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Inter Miami has been reliable when projected over 9.5 corners

Inter Miami has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent over 9.5 corners predictions. The average estimated probability was 58%, with an expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment slightly exceeded expectation. At home, 2 of 3 such predictions were fulfilled, while the current probability of 50% sits below the historical range of 55-62%.

Recent evidence for Inter Miami4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer