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Predictions graded

Inter Miami6Philadelphia Union4

HT 4–4Sun 24 May 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 17–21On targetOn target 10–10CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 May 2026, 00:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Inter Miami are clear favorites against a struggling Philadelphia Union side missing a key defender, but the short odds on a home win and over 2.5 goals offer no value.

The standout betting edge is over 4.5 cards at 2.90, with both teams’ high card averages and the competitive pre-World Cup break context supporting a feisty encounter.

Context

Philadelphia’s official recap confirmed Makhanya’s yellow-card accumulation suspension after the May 16 draw with Columbus.
- Philadelphia concede 2.25 goals per away match this season, and Makhanya has been a consistent starter in central defense.
- No direct replacement was named, forcing a reshuffle in a backline that has kept only one away clean sheet in eight attempts.
ESPN reported on April 14 that Mascherano resigned and sporting director Guillermo Hoyos would take over, but no official club statement has confirmed the change.
- Inter Miami’s current technical-staff page on their website still shows Mascherano as head coach.
- The team has continued to win despite the noise, but a lack of clarity before a pre-break finale could create distraction.
Last five H2H results: Inter Miami 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; Philadelphia’s last win was in 2023.
- Philadelphia’s official match preview explicitly noted the Union had not beaten Miami since 2023.
- Recent meetings include a 3-1 Miami win in September 2024 and a 4-1 Miami win in the 2023 Leagues Cup semifinal.
Philadelphia’s away record this season: 1 win, 1 draw, 6 losses in 8 matches.
- They have conceded 2.25 goals per away game, keeping only one clean sheet on the road.
- In their last five away matches, they have lost four and drawn one, conceding 13 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Inter Miami

1.41fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

Inter Miami's superior form, strong H2H dominance, and Philadelphia's poor away record and defensive absence give Miami a clear edge, though Miami's modest home win rate tempers confidence.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Inter Miami or Draw

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Given Philadelphia's extremely poor win rate and Miami's resilience, a Miami win or draw is highly probable, supported by both teams' season-long form.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 4 of last 5 H2H and Miami's home matches, with Philadelphia conceding in 12 of 15, making BTTS a high-probability outcome.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Miami's 1.0 first-half goals and Philadelphia's 0.8 conceded, plus 4 of last 5 H2H with first-half goals, make a goal before the break likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's superior form, strong H2H dominance, and Philadelphia's poor away record and defensive absence give Miami a clear edge, though Miami's modest home win rate tempers confidence.
- Inter Miami home record this season: 1W-3D-1L (5 matches), but overall form is strong with 8W-4D-2L in last 14.
- Philadelphia Union away record: 1W-1D-6L in 8 matches, conceding 18 goals (2.25 per away game).
- H2H last 5: Inter Miami 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; Philadelphia have not beaten Miami since 2023.
- Philadelphia missing starting CB Makhanya (yellow accumulation), weakening an already leaky defense.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonInter MiamiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Philadelphia's extremely poor win rate and Miami's resilience, a Miami win or draw is highly probable, supported by both teams' season-long form.
- Inter Miami have lost only 2 of 14 league matches this season.
- Philadelphia Union have won only 1 of 14 league matches, with 9 losses.
- At home, Miami have lost only 1 of 5 (to Orlando City).
- Philadelphia have failed to win in 7 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonInter Miami or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Miami's superior first-half performance and Philadelphia's slow starts suggest Miami could lead at the break, but Miami's own halftime leads are not dominant enough for high confidence.
- Inter Miami led at halftime in 40% of matches; Philadelphia trailed in 60%.
- Miami average 1.0 first-half goals vs Philadelphia's 0.2 first-half goals scored.
- In last 5 H2H, Miami led at halftime in 3 matches (2-1, 3-1, 4-1).
- Philadelphia have not led at halftime in any of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostInter MiamiEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Miami are favorites, their tendency to draw at home and Philadelphia's occasional resilience make a wire-to-wire win less certain, though possible given Philadelphia's poor starts.
- Inter Miami led at halftime in 40% of matches and won 57% overall.
- Philadelphia trailed at halftime in 60% and lost 64% of matches.
- In H2H, Miami led at halftime and won in 3 of last 5 meetings.
- Miami's home form: only 1 win in 5, but that win was a 2-0 halftime lead.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableInter Miami/Inter MiamiEstimated chance35%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Miami's attacking output and Philadelphia's defensive fragility on the road, combined with a history of high-scoring H2H encounters, point to over 2.5 goals.
- Inter Miami average 2.3 goals scored per match over last 15; Philadelphia concede 1.7 per match.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3+ goals in 4 of 5 (3-3, 2-1, 3-1, 2-1, 4-1).
- Miami's last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (2-0, 5-3, 4-2, 3-4, 1-1).
- Philadelphia's away matches average 3.6 total goals (11 scored, 18 conceded in 8 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent ability to score and concede, and the H2H trend strongly supports both teams finding the net.
- Inter Miami have scored in 13 of last 15 matches; conceded in 11 of 15.
- Philadelphia have scored in 8 of last 15, but conceded in 12 of 15.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 4 of 5.
- Miami's home matches: both teams scored in 4 of 5 this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Miami's consistent scoring and Philadelphia's poor away defense make it likely the hosts net at least twice.
- Inter Miami average 2.3 goals per match overall; at home this season they average 2.0 goals per game (10 in 5).
- Philadelphia concede 2.25 goals per away game.
- Miami scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- Philadelphia allowed 2+ goals in 6 of 8 away league matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonInter Miami over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Miami's strong first-half scoring trend and Philadelphia's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal highly likely.
- Inter Miami average 1.0 first-half goals scored; Philadelphia concede 0.8 first-half goals on average.
- Miami led at halftime in 40% of matches; Philadelphia trailed at halftime in 60%.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (3-3 had 2, 2-1 had 1, 3-1 had 1, 2-1 had 1, 4-1 had 2).
- Miami's last 5 matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in open second halves, and the overall goal expectation supports at least two goals after the break.
- Inter Miami's matches average 3.8 total goals; second-half goals account for roughly 60% of total goals in their games.
- Philadelphia's away matches see 3.6 total goals on average, with many coming after halftime.
- Last 5 H2H: second half produced 2+ goals in 3 of 5 meetings.
- Miami scored in the second half in 12 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Philadelphia's anemic first-half scoring and Miami's solid first-half defense make it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- Inter Miami concede only 0.5 first-half goals on average; Philadelphia score only 0.2 first-half goals.
- Philadelphia have scored a first-half goal in only 3 of last 15 matches.
- Miami kept a first-half clean sheet in 8 of last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in first half in only 1 of 5 (3-3 draw).
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined averages suggest a total around 10-11, making over 9.5 a reasonable but low-confidence call.
- Inter Miami average 5.9 corners per match; Philadelphia average 5.8.
- Combined average corners in Miami matches: 11.2 (5.9 for, 5.3 against).
- Philadelphia away matches average 10.1 total corners (5.8 for, 4.3 against).
- Last 5 H2H corner data unavailable, but both teams' season averages hover near 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages point to a total above 4.5, and the competitive nature of a pre-World Cup break match could increase fouls and bookings.
- Inter Miami average 2.5 yellow cards per match; Philadelphia average 2.3.
- Combined average cards in Miami matches: 5.0 (2.5 for, 2.5 against).
- Philadelphia away matches see an average of 5.1 total cards.
- Last 5 H2H card data unavailable, but both teams have disciplined issues (Miami 0.5 red cards per game, Philadelphia 1.0).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

D3-3Philadelphia UnionvInter MiamiMay 24, 2025MAJ

W2-1Inter MiamivPhiladelphia UnionMar 29, 2025MAJ

W3-1Inter MiamivPhiladelphia UnionSep 14, 2024MAJ

W1-2Philadelphia UnionvInter MiamiJun 15, 2024MAJ

W1-4Philadelphia UnionvInter MiamiAug 15, 2023LEA

Inter Miami unbeaten in 5 meetings4.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Inter Miami Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	14	8	4	2	33-24	28	WWWLD
15	Philadelphia Union	14	1	4	9	14-24	7	DLLDL

21pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Inter Miami

W2-0Portland TimbersMay 17MAJ

W5-3FC CincinnatiMay 13MAJ

W4-2Toronto FCMay 9MAJ

L3-4Orlando City SCMay 2MAJ

D1-1New England RevolutionApr 25MAJ

W2-0Real Salt LakeApr 23MAJ

W3-2Colorado RapidsApr 18MAJ

D2-2New York Red BullsApr 11MAJ

D2-2AustinApr 4MAJ

W3-2New York City FCMar 22MAJ

D1-1Nashville SCMar 18CON

D0-0CharlotteMar 14MAJ

D0-0Nashville SCMar 11CON

W2-1DC UnitedMar 7MAJ

W4-2Orlando City SCMar 2MAJ

Philadelphia Union

D1-1Columbus CrewMay 16MAJ

L3-4Orlando City SCMay 13MAJ

L1-2New England RevolutionMay 9MAJ

D0-0Nashville SCMay 2MAJ

L0-2Columbus CrewApr 25MAJ

D3-3Toronto FCApr 22MAJ

D0-0DC UnitedApr 18MAJ

W2-1CF MontrealApr 11MAJ

L1-2CharlotteApr 4MAJ

L1-2Chicago FireMar 21MAJ

D1-1Club AmericaMar 19CON

L1-3Atlanta United FCMar 14MAJ

L0-1Club AmericaMar 10CON

L0-1San Jose EarthquakesMar 8MAJ

L1-2New York City FCMar 1MAJ

Squad & Injuries

Inter Miami

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Philadelphia Union

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Over 4.5

Inter Miami

Inter Miami or Draw

Yes

Over 0.5

No

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Inter Miami

Philadelphia Union

Squad & Injuries

Inter Miami

Philadelphia Union