AllsvenskanFull time

Predictions graded

Elfsborg2Degerfors0

HT 1–0Sat 29 Aug 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 13–6On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 8–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 07:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Elfsborg are likely to win or draw, but the market has already priced that in, leaving no value on the straight win or double chance.

The only market with a slight positive edge is Over 2.5 goals (offered at 1.73, estimated 60% probability), but it is marginal and carries risk if Degerfors sit deep. Avoid the heavily juiced markets on Elfsborg to win, double chance, and first-half Over 0.5 goals.

Context

Degerfors have 16 points from 18 matches, with four wins, four draws, and ten losses. They are currently in the relegation playoff position.
They are level on points with the relegation playoff line, so every match matters for their survival hopes. Elfsborg are 12 points ahead in 5th place, so the pressure is on Degerfors to get a result here.
- Degerfors are 14th with 16 points, in the relegation playoff spot.
- They have 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses from 18 matches.
- Elfsborg are 5th with 28 points, 12 points ahead of Degerfors.
Elfsborg have 28 points from 18 matches and sit 5th in the table.
They have won three of their last four league matches, including a 3-0 home win over Vasteras SK on 14 August. Their only recent league defeat was a 1-3 home loss to Sirius on 19 July, but they have bounced back well.
- Elfsborg beat Vasteras SK 3-0 at home on 14 August.
- They won 1-0 at Mjallby AIF on 8 August.
- They drew 1-1 at IFK Goteborg on 23 August.
Elfsborg midfielder S. Olsson is suspended for this match after accumulating too many yellow cards.
His absence removes a midfield selection option and forces Elfsborg to alter their midfield structure. The available sources do not establish his replacement, so the exact change remains uncertain.
- bet365 News reports that Simon Olsson is suspended after accumulating too many yellow cards.
- FotMob lists Olsson as suspended for the 29 August match.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:42 · Europe/Bucharestbet365 News: Elfsborg–Degerfors previewnews.bet365.com · 27 Aug 2026FotMob match pagewww.fotmob.com · 29 Aug 2026
Degerfors are 14th with 16 points and have conceded 29 goals in 18 matches.
They have lost four of their last five league matches, with the only win in that run coming at home against IFK Goteborg on 16 August. Their away form is also poor, with just two wins in nine away games this season.
- Degerfors lost 0-2 at IF Brommapojkarna on 23 August.
- They lost 0-2 at IFK Goteborg on 2 August.
- They lost 0-4 at Hammarby FF on 19 July.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Elfsborg

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Elfsborg's home form is solid but the market price already reflects that, leaving no value on the straight win.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Elfsborg or Draw

1.13fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

The double chance is heavily juiced and offers no cushion even for a high-confidence prediction.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Degerfors often trail at half time, and Elfsborg's first-half scoring tendency suggests at least one first-half goal is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's stronger home form and Degerfors' poor away record, combined with recent H2H edge, support an Elfsborg win.
- Elfsborg home record: 4W-3D-2L, 14 goals scored, 9 conceded in 9 home matches
- Degerfors away record: 2W-2D-5L, 8 goals scored, 15 conceded in 9 away matches
- Elfsborg overall form: DWWWL in last 5, Degerfors: LWWLL
- H2H last 3 league meetings: Elfsborg won 2, Degerfors won 1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElfsborgEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's strong home form and Degerfors' struggles away make an Elfsborg win or draw highly likely.
- Elfsborg home record: 4W-3D-2L (78% unbeaten at home)
- Degerfors away record: 2W-2D-5L (44% losing away)
- Elfsborg overall points: 28 vs Degerfors 16
BetBugs · Double ChancewonElfsborg or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's tendency to lead at half time and Degerfors' frequent first-half deficits give Elfsborg a slight edge.
- Elfsborg leading at half time in 40% of matches overall
- Degerfors trailing at half time in 67% of matches overall
- Elfsborg first half goals average: 0.7 vs Degerfors first half goals conceded average: 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonElfsborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's home advantage and Degerfors' poor away form make a home win from half time plausible but not highly probable.
- Elfsborg leading at half time in 40% of matches, winning 39% overall
- Degerfors trailing at half time in 67% of matches, losing 56% overall
- Elfsborg home win rate: 44%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonElfsborg/ElfsborgEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around 2.5 goals, and Degerfors' leaky defense away from home increases the likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
- Elfsborg home matches average 2.56 total goals (14 scored, 9 conceded in 9 games)
- Degerfors away matches average 2.56 total goals (8 scored, 15 conceded in 9 games)
- Degerfors overall: 17 scored, 29 conceded in 18 matches (2.56 per game)
- Elfsborg overall: 25 scored, 19 conceded in 18 matches (2.44 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, making both teams scoring likely.
- Elfsborg scored in 8 of 9 home matches (89%)
- Degerfors conceded in 8 of 9 away matches (89%)
- Degerfors scored in 6 of 9 away matches (67%)
- Elfsborg conceded in 6 of 9 home matches (67%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Degerfors often trail at half time, and Elfsborg's first-half scoring tendency suggests at least one first-half goal is likely.
- Elfsborg first half goals average: 0.7 per match overall, 0.8 at home
- Degerfors first half goals conceded average: 0.9 per match overall, 1.0 away
- Degerfors trailing at half time in 67% of matches overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring averages are around 1.5, making over 1.5 a coin flip.
- Elfsborg second half goals average: 0.7 per match overall
- Degerfors second half goals conceded average: 0.8 per match overall
- Combined second half average: 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are below 9.5, but variance in corner counts makes over 9.5 possible.
- Elfsborg average corners per match: 4.3 overall, 4.6 at home
- Degerfors average corners per match: 4.2 overall, 3.9 away
- Combined average corners: 8.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average is below 3.5, but Degerfors' higher card rate could push the total over.
- Elfsborg average yellow cards per match: 1.2 overall, 1.3 at home
- Degerfors average yellow cards per match: 1.8 overall, 1.7 away
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-1Degerfors IFvIF ElfsborgApr 17, 2026ALL

W1-2IF ElfsborgvDegerfors IFSep 27, 2025ALL

W0-1Degerfors IFvIF ElfsborgApr 19, 2025ALL

L4-1IF ElfsborgvDegerfors IFMar 15, 2025FRI

D0-0IF ElfsborgvDegerfors IFMar 16, 2024FRI

Elfsborg: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Allsvenskan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Elfsborg	18	7	7	4	25-19	28	DWWWL
14	Degerfors Relegation Playoffs	18	4	4	10	17-29	16	LWWLL

12pt gap between teamsDegerfors in relegation zone

Recent Form

Elfsborg

D1-1IFK GoteborgAug 23ALL

W4-0Västra FrölundaAug 18SVE

W3-0Vasteras SK FKAug 14ALL

W1-0Mjallby AIFAug 8ALL

W2-1Malmo FFJul 26ALL

L1-3SiriusJul 19ALL

L0-1GaisJul 12ALL

L1-2Hammarby FFJul 5ALL

D0-0FredrikstadJun 28FRI

D2-2Orgryte ISMay 29ALL

D1-1BK HackenMay 25ALL

D1-1Mjallby AIFMay 21ALL

D1-1HalmstadMay 16ALL

W2-0IF BrommapojkarnaMay 8ALL

D1-1AIK StockholmMay 3ALL

Degerfors

L0-2IF BrommapojkarnaAug 23ALL

W5-1IFK ÖstersundAug 19SVE

W3-0IFK GoteborgAug 16ALL

W2-1Malmo FFAug 9ALL

L0-2IFK GoteborgAug 2ALL

L0-1Djurgardens IFJul 25ALL

L0-4Hammarby FFJul 19ALL

L0-2Vasteras SK FKJul 12ALL

L0-1Malmo FFJul 4ALL

W3-2LillestromJun 26FRI

D2-2IF BrommapojkarnaMay 31ALL

L1-2Kalmar FFMay 23ALL

D1-1GaisMay 16ALL

L1-4Mjallby AIFMay 9ALL

D1-1BK HackenMay 2ALL

Squad & Injuries

Elfsborg

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Degerfors

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders12

Goalkeeper2

Elfsborg2Degerfors0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Elfsborg

Elfsborg or Draw

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.53

@ 1.13

@ 1.29

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Elfsborg

Degerfors

Squad & Injuries

Elfsborg

Degerfors