Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Coritiba2Corinthians1

HT 1–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 12–16On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 4–14

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 11:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Coritiba vs Corinthians is a balanced matchup with a strong draw lean and low-scoring expectation.

The market is efficient, offering no clear value; avoid Corinthians in all markets. The only slight edge is BTTS Yes at 2.10, but it's below the confidence threshold.

Context

Coritiba home record this season: 4W-3D-4L, 13 goals for, 13 against.
- In their last 6 home matches, Coritiba won 4, drew 1, and lost 1.
- Corinthians away record: 3W-5D-3L, 12 goals for, 12 against.
Corinthians away record: 3W-5D-3L.
- They have drawn 5 of 11 away matches, the highest draw count in the league away from home.
- Corinthians have only lost 3 away games, showing resilience.
Coritiba first-half goals scored average: 0.5; conceded: 0.7.
- Corinthians first-half goals scored average: 0.5; conceded: 0.5.
- Corinthians led at half-time in only 13% of matches; Coritiba in 33%.
Daronco averages over 5 cards per match in recent seasons.
- Coritiba average 1.5 yellow cards per match; Corinthians average 2.6.
- Both teams commit over 11 fouls per match on average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.94fair 3.23

BetBugs 31% · Market 34%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have nearly identical home/away splits and the historical H2H at this venue is perfectly balanced, making a draw a strong possibility.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Coritiba or Draw

1.54fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

Coritiba's home advantage and recent H2H win give them a slight edge, but Corinthians' solid away form makes the double chance a safer play.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.96fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 51%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and often go into the break level, making a draw at half-time the most likely outcome.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.48fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average just 1.1 goals scored and Corinthians concede only 0.9 away, supporting a low-scoring match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have nearly identical home/away splits and the historical H2H at this venue is perfectly balanced, making a draw a strong possibility.
- Coritiba home record: 4W-3D-4L, 13 goals for, 13 against in 11 home matches
- Corinthians away record: 3W-5D-3L, 12 goals for, 12 against in 11 away matches
- H2H at Couto Pereira: 9 Coritiba wins, 9 Corinthians wins, 8 draws in 26 league meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance31%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's home advantage and recent H2H win give them a slight edge, but Corinthians' solid away form makes the double chance a safer play.
- Coritiba home record: 4W-3D-4L, 13 goals for, 13 against in 11 home matches
- Corinthians away record: 3W-5D-3L, 12 goals for, 12 against in 11 away matches
- Coritiba won the most recent H2H meeting 2-0 away
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCoritiba or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and often go into the break level, making a draw at half-time the most likely outcome.
- Coritiba led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 47%
- Corinthians led at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailed in 27%
- Both teams average 0.5 first-half goals scored
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is plausible given the balanced matchup and tendency for low-scoring first halves.
- Coritiba home matches: 3 draws in 11 games
- Corinthians away matches: 5 draws in 11 games
- H2H at this venue has 8 draws in 26 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and solid defensive records, especially Corinthians, suggesting a low-scoring affair.
- Coritiba home matches average 2.36 total goals (13 for, 13 against in 11 games)
- Corinthians away matches average 2.18 total goals (12 for, 12 against in 11 games)
- Coritiba average 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded overall; Corinthians average 1.1 scored and 0.9 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown consistent scoring ability in their respective home/away splits, making it likely each finds the net.
- Coritiba scored in 9 of 11 home matches this season
- Corinthians scored in 8 of 11 away matches this season
- Both teams average over 1 goal per game overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a high frequency of level or low-scoring first halves.
- Coritiba average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded
- Corinthians average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Coritiba led at half-time in only 33% of matches; Corinthians in only 13%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to open up as both teams push for a result, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Coritiba average 0.6 second-half goals scored (1.1 total - 0.5 first half)
- Corinthians average 0.6 second-half goals scored (1.1 total - 0.5 first half)
- Both teams concede more in second halves: Coritiba 0.8, Corinthians 0.4
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average is well below the 9.5 line.
- Coritiba average 3.6 corners per match overall
- Corinthians average 4.5 corners per match overall
- Combined average of 8.1 corners per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The referee's tendency to show cards and both teams' foul rates suggest a higher card count, though the evidence is not overwhelming.
- Coritiba average 1.5 yellow cards per match, Corinthians average 2.6
- Referee Anderson Daronco averages over 5 cards per match in recent seasons
- Both teams commit over 11 fouls per match on average
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Coritiba's Under 2.5 goals projections have underperformed recently

Coritiba has fulfilled 2 of 5 Under 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 61%, but only 40% of matches stayed under 2.5 goals. At home, just 1 of 3 such predictions matched, indicating a tendency for higher-scoring games than projected.

Recent evidence for Coritiba5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Serie A