New York Red Bulls1Chicago Fire1

HT 0–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 16:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Chicago Fire are the better side on paper, but the market has already priced in their advantage, leaving no value on the away win, double chance, or goals markets.

The only marginal edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.85, but it is too small to recommend strongly. Avoid the heavily juiced Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes lines.

Context

New York Red Bulls confirmed Michael Bradley as head coach at the 2026 introductory press conference.
- The team's recent form is mixed: 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw in their last 5 MLS matches.
- No mid-season coaching change has occurred; this is continuity under Bradley.
Chicago beat Portland Timbers 2-1 on August 16.
- They won three consecutive Leagues Cup matches against Cruz Azul, Santos Laguna, and Necaxa.
- Their last MLS loss was on July 25 against New York City FC.
New York lost to Atlanta United, Charlotte, and Philadelphia Union in their last five MLS matches.
- They won against Orlando City and Sporting Kansas City in that span.
- Their home record this season is 4W-2D-3L, showing vulnerability at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
May 2026: Chicago 1-3 New York Red Bulls.
- July 2025: Chicago 1-0 New York Red Bulls.
- April 2025: New York Red Bulls 2-1 Chicago.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Chicago Fire

1.91fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Chicago's superior standings and scoring form give them a moderate edge, though New York's home advantage narrows the gap.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Chicago Fire

1.33fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 75.2%

−7.2ppshort

Chicago Fire's consistency and New York's vulnerability make the double chance a safer play.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago Fire's superior standings and scoring form give them a moderate edge, though New York's home advantage narrows the gap.
- Chicago Fire rank 3rd in Eastern Conference with 32 points, while New York Red Bulls rank 8th with 25 points.
- Chicago Fire have won 10 of 18 matches; New York Red Bulls have won 7 of 19.
- Chicago Fire away record: 3W-2D-3L; New York Red Bulls home record: 4W-2D-3L.
- Chicago Fire average 2.2 goals scored per match vs New York Red Bulls' 1.7.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChicago FireEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago Fire's consistency and New York's vulnerability make the double chance a safer play.
- Chicago Fire have lost only 6 of 18 matches; New York Red Bulls have lost 8 of 19.
- New York Red Bulls have drawn 4 matches at home; Chicago Fire have drawn 2 away.
- Combined probability of draw or Chicago win based on recent form and standings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Chicago FireEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half results are often balanced, with a draw being a plausible outcome.
- New York Red Bulls lead at half-time in 53% of matches; Chicago Fire lead in 27%.
- New York Red Bulls trail at half-time in 27%; Chicago Fire trail in 27%.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (1.1 vs 0.8).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's second-half scoring edge suggests they may win the second half.
- Chicago Fire score 1.4 second-half goals on average; New York Red Bulls score 0.6.
- Chicago Fire have a stronger overall goal difference (+10 vs -11).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonChicago FireEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Chicago win is a plausible but low-probability sequence.
- New York Red Bulls draw at half-time in 20% of matches; Chicago Fire draw in 46%.
- Chicago Fire win full-time in 56% of matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Chicago FireEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, and the H2H shows goals, supporting over 2.5.
- New York Red Bulls average 1.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match.
- Chicago Fire average 2.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 3.8 (New York) + 3.7 (Chicago) = 3.75.
- Both teams scored in 2 of last 3 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and have defensive vulnerabilities, making BTTS likely.
- New York Red Bulls have scored in 14 of 19 matches; Chicago Fire in 16 of 18.
- New York Red Bulls have conceded in 16 of 19; Chicago Fire in 12 of 18.
- Both teams scored in 2 of last 3 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring averages suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5, but variance is high.
- New York Red Bulls average 1.1 first-half goals; Chicago Fire average 0.8.
- New York Red Bulls concede 0.8 first-half goals; Chicago Fire concede 0.8.
- Combined first-half average: 1.9 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is higher for both teams, especially Chicago, supporting over 1.5.
- New York Red Bulls average 0.6 second-half goals (1.7 total - 1.1 first half).
- Chicago Fire average 1.4 second-half goals (2.2 total - 0.8 first half).
- Combined second-half average: 2.0 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages are near the line, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- New York Red Bulls average 5.2 corners per match; Chicago Fire average 4.6.
- Combined average corners: 9.8.
- Recent H2H meetings have varied corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate shots on target, but the line is close to the average.
- New York Red Bulls average 4.2 shots on target; Chicago Fire average 5.8.
- Combined average shots on target: 10.0.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Discipline stats suggest a moderate chance of over 4.5 cards.
- New York Red Bulls average 2.5 yellow cards; Chicago Fire average 2.2.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.7.
- New York Red Bulls have 1 red card in recent matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 52% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

New York Red Bulls: Over 2.5 goals has matched in 2 of 4 recent projections

New York Red Bulls have fulfilled 2 of 4 Over 2.5 goals projections. Their average estimated probability was 57.5%, with an expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions. Notably, both fulfilled predictions occurred away from home, while both home matches missed.

Recent evidence for New York Red Bulls4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer