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Predictions graded

Inter Miami1Toronto2

HT 0–0Sat 22 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–529%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 16:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Inter Miami are likely to win, but the odds offer no value (1.30 implies 76.9% vs our 62% estimate).

The only marginal edge is Over 1.5 first-half goals at 1.83, but it's thin. Avoid the heavily juiced favourites and consider the draw as a live possibility.

Context

Inter Miami home record: 3W-4D-1L in 8 matches.
- They have drawn 4 of 8 home games, including against New England and Columbus.
- Their home goal difference is +4 (21 scored, 17 conceded), indicating close games.
Toronto away record: 1W-3D-5L in 9 matches.
- They have drawn 3 of their last 5 away matches (0-0, 0-0, 1-1).
- Toronto have scored only 7 goals in 9 away games, averaging 0.78 goals per away match.
Last 5 H2H: Inter Miami 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
- In the most recent meeting (May 2026), Inter Miami won 4-2 away.
- Toronto have not beaten Inter Miami in their last 5 attempts.
Injury list for Inter Miami is empty.
- Injury list for Toronto is empty.
- No intel findings reported for either team.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Inter Miami

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Inter Miami's superior home form, Toronto's poor away record, and dominant H2H history strongly favor a home win.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Inter Miami or Draw

1.08fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 92.6%

−4.6ppshort

Toronto's inability to win against Inter Miami and their poor away form make the home double chance highly likely.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Inter Miami

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Inter Miami's tendency to lead at half-time and Toronto's weaker first-half away performance favor a home lead at the break.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Inter Miami at half-time / Inter Miami at full-time

1.75fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 57.1%

−12.1ppshort

Inter Miami's ability to lead at half-time and maintain leads at home makes HT/FT home win plausible.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's superior home form, Toronto's poor away record, and dominant H2H history strongly favor a home win.
- Inter Miami home record: 3W-4D-1L, 21 goals scored, 17 conceded in 8 home matches
- Toronto away record: 1W-3D-5L, 7 goals scored, 14 conceded in 9 away matches
- Inter Miami overall: 11W-5D-3L, 46 goals scored, 36 conceded; Toronto overall: 4W-8D-7L, 26 goals scored, 33 conceded
- H2H last 5: Inter Miami 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostInter MiamiEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's inability to win against Inter Miami and their poor away form make the home double chance highly likely.
- Inter Miami home record: 3W-4D-1L (87.5% unbeaten at home)
- Toronto away record: 1W-3D-5L (44.4% losing away)
- H2H last 5: Toronto has never beaten Inter Miami (0 wins)
BetBugs · Double ChancelostInter Miami or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's tendency to lead at half-time and Toronto's weaker first-half away performance favor a home lead at the break.
- Inter Miami leading at half-time in 53% of recent matches (from averages)
- Toronto trailing at half-time in 33% of recent matches (from averages)
- Inter Miami home first-half goal difference: +0.8 per match (1.5 scored - 0.7 conceded)
- Toronto away first-half goal difference: -0.1 per match (0.5 scored - 0.6 conceded)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostInter MiamiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's ability to lead at half-time and maintain leads at home makes HT/FT home win plausible.
- Inter Miami home record: 3W-4D-1L, with 2 wins after leading at half-time
- Toronto away record: 1W-3D-5L, with 0 wins after leading at half-time
- Inter Miami overall: 53% leading at half-time, 58% win rate
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostInter Miami/Inter MiamiEstimated chance45%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's high-scoring home games and Toronto's defensive vulnerabilities on the road support over 2.5 goals.
- Inter Miami home matches average 4.75 total goals (21 scored + 17 conceded in 8 games)
- Toronto away matches average 2.33 total goals (7 scored + 14 conceded in 9 games)
- Inter Miami overall average 4.32 total goals per match (46+36 in 19 games)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, especially in H2H encounters.
- Inter Miami home: scored in 7 of 8 matches, conceded in 7 of 8
- Toronto away: scored in 6 of 9 matches, conceded in 8 of 9
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's strong first-half scoring at home combined with Toronto's tendency to concede early suggests over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Inter Miami home first-half goals: 1.5 average per match (from recent form data)
- Toronto away first-half goals conceded: 0.6 average per match (from recent form data)
- Inter Miami overall first-half goals: 1.5 average, first-half goals conceded: 0.7 average
- Toronto overall first-half goals: 0.5 average, first-half goals conceded: 0.6 average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners each, suggesting a total near 10, but variance is high.
- Inter Miami home corners average: 5.9 per match (from averages)
- Toronto away corners average: 4.9 per match (from averages)
- Combined average corners: 10.8 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Miami's high shot volume at home and Toronto's moderate away shots suggest over 8.5 shots on target.
- Inter Miami home shots on target average: 6.6 per match (from averages)
- Toronto away shots on target average: 3.9 per match (from averages)
- Combined average shots on target: 10.5 per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2-3 yellow cards, making over 4.5 cards a coin flip.
- Inter Miami home yellow cards average: 3.0 per match (from averages)
- Toronto away yellow cards average: 2.1 per match (from averages)
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.1 per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 76.9% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Inter Miami has been highly reliable when projected to exceed 9.5 corners

Inter Miami has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent Over 9.5 corners predictions. The average estimated probability was 58%, with an expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 3 fulfilled predictions exceeded expectation. The current prediction of 52% sits below the historical range of 55–62%, suggesting the model is less confident than in previous matches.

Recent evidence for Inter Miami4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer