Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

Columbus Crew1CF Montreal2

HT 1–1Wed 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–5–144%

Edges2–3–140%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 6–14On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Aug 2026, 08:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Columbus Crew are likely to beat CF Montréal given their strong H2H record and Montréal's awful away form, but the home win odds (1.53) offer no value.

The only positive edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.00, where the model sees a 55% probability versus the 50% implied. Avoid the heavily juiced double chance and first-half markets.

Context

CF Montreal away record: 1W-1D-7L
- CF Montreal have conceded 25 goals in 9 away matches
- Montreal's away matches average 4.1 total goals
H2H last 5: Columbus won 3, drew 2, lost 0
- Columbus scored 2+ goals in three of those wins
- Montreal's last win in Columbus was in August 2022
Columbus Crew average 1.1 first-half goals scored
- Columbus Crew led at halftime in 60% of recent matches
- CF Montreal trailed at halftime in only 27% of matches
No injuries listed for Columbus Crew or CF Montreal
- Wilfried Nancy confirmed as Columbus head coach
- No squad or rotation news available

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Columbus Crew

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Despite the negative edge, the predictor's medium-confidence home win is supported by Columbus's strong H2H record and Montreal's poor away form, but the odds already price in the favourite.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Columbus Crew or Draw

1.15fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 87%

−7.0ppshort

The predictor's high-confidence double chance is well-founded given Columbus's unbeaten H2H run, but the market has already priced it at 87% implied, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Columbus Crew's strong home form and dominant H2H record, combined with CF Montreal's poor away record, give the home side a clear edge.
- Columbus Crew home record: 4W-2D-3L, 12 goals scored, 9 conceded in 9 home matches
- CF Montreal away record: 1W-1D-7L, 12 goals scored, 25 conceded in 9 away matches
- H2H last 5: Columbus won 3, drew 2, lost 0; Columbus scored 2+ in three of those wins
- Columbus Crew recent form (last 5): DWLWD; CF Montreal recent form (last 5): DLLDD
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostColumbus CrewEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Columbus Crew have not lost to CF Montreal in the last five meetings and are strong at home, making a home win or draw highly likely.
- Columbus Crew home record: 4W-2D-3L, 12 goals scored, 9 conceded in 9 home matches
- CF Montreal away record: 1W-1D-7L, 12 goals scored, 25 conceded in 9 away matches
- H2H last 5: Columbus won 3, drew 2, lost 0
- Columbus Crew recent form (last 5): DWLWD; CF Montreal recent form (last 5): DLLDD
BetBugs · Double ChancelostColumbus Crew or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Columbus Crew's strong first-half performance and CF Montreal's tendency to trail at halftime support a home lead at the break.
- Columbus Crew led at halftime in 60% of recent matches
- CF Montreal trailed at halftime in 27% of recent matches
- Columbus Crew average 1.1 first-half goals scored vs 0.6 conceded
- CF Montreal average 0.7 first-half goals scored vs 0.5 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerpushColumbus CrewEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Columbus Crew's tendency to lead at halftime and their overall home advantage make a halftime/fulltime double plausible, though not highly probable.
- Columbus Crew led at halftime in 60% of recent matches
- Columbus Crew won 4 of 9 home matches
- CF Montreal lost 7 of 9 away matches
- H2H last 5: Columbus won 3, drew 2
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostColumbus Crew/Columbus CrewEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring games, and CF Montreal's away defensive struggles increase the likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
- Columbus Crew average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per match in last 15
- CF Montreal average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per match in last 15
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
- CF Montreal away matches average 4.1 total goals (12 scored, 25 conceded in 9 games)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and the H2H history shows frequent goals from both sides.
- Columbus Crew scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- CF Montreal scored in 11 of last 15 matches
- CF Montreal away: scored in 7 of 9 away matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Columbus Crew's strong first-half scoring tendency could lead to an early goal, but CF Montreal's first-half defensive record tempers the expectation.
- Columbus Crew average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 0.6 first-half goals conceded in last 15
- CF Montreal average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 first-half goals conceded in last 15
- Columbus Crew led at halftime in 60% of recent matches
- CF Montreal trailed at halftime in 27% of recent matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and CF Montreal's away defensive issues often surface late in games.
- Columbus Crew average 0.7 second-half goals scored (1.8 total - 1.1 first half)
- CF Montreal average 1.0 second-half goals scored (1.7 total - 0.7 first half)
- CF Montreal away matches average 2.8 second-half goals (12 scored, 25 conceded in 9 games)
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had at least one second-half goal
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are close to the 9.5 line, and CF Montreal's higher corner count could push the total over.
- Columbus Crew average 3.6 corners per match in last 15
- CF Montreal average 5.7 corners per match in last 15
- Combined average corners per match: 9.3
- CF Montreal away matches average 5.2 corners (5.7 overall)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card averages exceed 3.5, suggesting a moderate likelihood of over 3.5 cards.
- Columbus Crew average 1.7 yellow cards per match in last 15
- CF Montreal average 2.5 yellow cards per match in last 15
- Combined average yellow cards per match: 4.2
- CF Montreal away matches average 2.6 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

D1-1CF MontrealvColumbus CrewMay 14, 2025MAJ

W2-1Columbus CrewvCF MontrealApr 5, 2025MAJ

W1-3CF MontrealvColumbus CrewMay 15, 2024MAJ

D0-0Columbus CrewvCF MontrealApr 27, 2024MAJ

W2-1Columbus CrewvCF MontrealOct 22, 2023MAJ

Columbus Crew unbeaten in 5 meetings2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26-28	20	DWLWD
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24-35	16	DLLDD

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Columbus Crew

W2-1CF PachucaAug 7LEA

W3-1AtlasAug 4LEA

D2-2Inter MiamiAug 1MAJ

W2-1FC CincinnatiJul 25MAJ

L1-2New York City FCJul 22MAJ

D1-1BurnleyJul 12FRI

W2-0Atlanta United FCMay 24MAJ

W1-0New York City FCMay 20US

D1-1Philadelphia UnionMay 16MAJ

L2-3New York Red BullsMay 13MAJ

L0-3New York City FCMay 10MAJ

L2-3Minnesota United FCMay 2MAJ

W4-1One KnoxvilleApr 29US

W2-0Philadelphia UnionApr 25MAJ

W2-1Los Angeles GalaxyApr 22MAJ

CF Montreal

D2-2New England RevolutionAug 1MAJ

L0-1Inter MiamiJul 25MAJ

L0-1Nashville SCJul 23MAJ

D0-0Toronto FCJul 16MAJ

W2-1Vancouver FCJul 12CAN

W2-1Vancouver FCJul 9CAN

D4-4DC UnitedMay 23MAJ

L0-2Chicago FireMay 16MAJ

D2-2Portland TimbersMay 13MAJ

W2-0Orlando City SCMay 9MAJ

W5-0Calgary Blizzard SCMay 6CAN

L1-3Atlanta United FCMay 2MAJ

W1-0New York City FCApr 25MAJ

W4-1New York Red BullsApr 18MAJ

L1-2Philadelphia UnionApr 11MAJ

Squad & Injuries

Columbus Crew

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

CF Montreal

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Columbus Crew1CF Montreal2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Columbus Crew

Columbus Crew or Draw

Columbus Crew

Over 2.5

Yes

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.53

@ 1.15

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Columbus Crew

CF Montreal

Squad & Injuries

Columbus Crew

CF Montreal