Over 2.5
Market 59.9% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams' recent matches average over 2.5 total goals, and Orebro's leaky defense (2.1 conceded/game) should create chances for Sollentuna.
Svenska CupenFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Örebro SK are the likely winners due to their higher division and recent H2H success, but the odds offer no value.
The match is expected to have goals, with over 2.5 and both teams to score probable, yet the prices are efficient. Avoid the match winner and first-half goals markets; the double chance at 1.20 is slightly overpriced relative to our model.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 59.9% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams' recent matches average over 2.5 total goals, and Orebro's leaky defense (2.1 conceded/game) should create chances for Sollentuna.
Market 55.6% · BetBugs 58%
Both teams regularly find the net and concede, with Orebro's leaky defense and Sollentuna's consistent scoring suggesting both teams to score is probable.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 78% · Market 83%
Sollentuna have won only 2 of their last 15 overall and none of their last 5 at home, while Orebro SK have avoided defeat in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 64% vs our 55% estimate leaves no value; the away win is already heavily priced.

