Quilmes AC3CA San Telmo0

HT 2–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 17:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Quilmes' strong home defense and San Telmo's toothless away attack point to a low-scoring match.

The top actionable bet is under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.50, where our 65% estimate offers a 25-point edge over the implied 40% probability. Avoid backing Quilmes outright at short odds, as the value has been squeezed.

Context

San Telmo away record: 0 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses in 11 matches.
- They have scored only 6 goals and conceded 11 on the road.
- Quilmes home record: 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses, conceding only 5 goals in 12 matches.
Quilmes home clean sheets: 7 out of 12 (58%).
- Quilmes conceded only 5 goals in 12 home matches.
- San Telmo failed to score in 6 of 11 away matches (55%).
Quilmes average 0.2 first-half goals scored at home.
- San Telmo average 0.2 first-half goals scored away.
- In Quilmes' last 5 home matches, 4 were 0-0 at halftime.
- In San Telmo's last 5 away matches, 4 were 0-0 at halftime.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Quilmes AC's strong home form (only 2 losses all season) and San Telmo's winless away record (0 wins in 11) give the hosts a clear structural edge, reinforced by a dominant 3-0 H2H win earlier this year.
- Quilmes AC home record: 6W-4D-2L, 13 goals scored, 5 conceded in 12 home matches this season.
- CA San Telmo away record: 0W-6D-5L, 6 goals scored, 11 conceded in 11 away matches this season.
- Quilmes AC won the most recent H2H 3-0 away at San Telmo on 29 March 2026.
- Quilmes AC last 5 home matches: 2W-2D-1L, scoring 6 and conceding 3.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonQuilmes ACEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Quilmes AC's strong home avoidance of defeat (83%) with San Telmo's complete inability to win away (0 wins in 11) makes a home win or draw highly probable, driven by structural home/away splits.
- Quilmes AC home record: 6W-4D-2L, meaning they avoid defeat in 83% of home games.
- CA San Telmo away record: 0W-6D-5L, meaning they fail to win in 100% of away games.
- Quilmes AC have lost only 2 of 12 home matches this season.
- San Telmo have drawn 6 of 11 away matches, showing they often hold on for a point but rarely win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonQuilmes AC or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high tendency to be level at halftime in their respective home/away splits (Quilmes 60% home draws, San Telmo 66% away draws), and recent form reinforces this pattern, making a halftime draw the most likely outcome.
- Quilmes AC home first-half record: led at halftime in 13% of matches, trailed in 27%, drawn in 60%.
- CA San Telmo away first-half record: led at halftime in 7% of matches, trailed in 27%, drawn in 66%.
- Quilmes AC last 5 home matches: 4 were drawn at halftime.
- San Telmo last 5 away matches: 4 were drawn at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Quilmes AC tend to grow into home games, scoring most goals after the break, while San Telmo often fade away, conceding the majority of their away goals in the second half, giving the hosts a slight edge to win the second period.
- Quilmes AC have won the second half in 5 of 12 home matches (42%).
- CA San Telmo have lost the second half in 5 of 11 away matches (45%).
- Quilmes AC score 67% of home goals after halftime.
- San Telmo concede 64% of away goals after halftime.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonQuilmes ACEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern emerges where Quilmes AC often break deadlocks after halftime at home, while San Telmo tend to concede late away, making a halftime draw followed by a home win a plausible sequence, though not highly frequent.
- Quilmes AC home matches: 4 of 12 were draw at HT and Quilmes win at FT (33%).
- CA San Telmo away matches: 3 of 11 were draw at HT and away loss at FT (27%).
- Quilmes AC score 67% of home goals in the second half.
- San Telmo concede 64% of away goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Quilmes ACEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles in their respective home/away splits, with Quilmes AC's tight home defense (0.42 goals conceded per game) and San Telmo's blunt away attack (0.55 goals scored per game) pointing to a low total.
- Quilmes AC home matches average 1.5 total goals (13 scored, 5 conceded in 12 games).
- CA San Telmo away matches average 1.55 total goals (6 scored, 11 conceded in 11 games).
- Quilmes AC last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- San Telmo last 5 away matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes AC's strong home defense (58% clean sheets) combined with San Telmo's poor away scoring record (55% blanks) makes it likely at least one side fails to score, supported by structural home/away defensive and offensive splits.
- Quilmes AC home clean sheets: 7 in 12 matches (58%).
- CA San Telmo away failed to score: 6 in 11 matches (55%).
- Quilmes AC conceded only 5 goals in 12 home games, averaging 0.42 per game.
- San Telmo scored only 6 goals in 11 away games, averaging 0.55 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes AC's home defensive solidity (58% clean sheets) and San Telmo's away scoring struggles (55% scoreless) point to a home clean sheet, with the recent H2H shutout adding psychological reinforcement.
- Quilmes AC kept a clean sheet in 7 of 12 home matches this season (58%).
- CA San Telmo failed to score in 6 of 11 away matches (55%).
- Quilmes AC conceded only 0.42 goals per home game.
- In the most recent H2H, Quilmes AC won 3-0 away, keeping a clean sheet.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA San Telmo not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates, with Quilmes AC and San Telmo each averaging just 0.2 first-half goals in their respective home/away splits, and recent matches showing a strong pattern of goalless first halves.
- Quilmes AC average 0.2 first-half goals scored at home (based on season averages).
- CA San Telmo average 0.2 first-half goals scored away (based on season averages).
- Quilmes AC first-half goals conceded at home: 0.4 per game.
- San Telmo first-half goals conceded away: 0.5 per game.
- In Quilmes AC's last 5 home matches, 4 were 0-0 at halftime.
- In San Telmo's last 5 away matches, 4 were 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams see the majority of goals after halftime in their respective home/away splits, with Quilmes AC's home matches and San Telmo's away matches both showing over 70% likelihood of a second-half goal, driven by tactical fatigue and increased urgency.
- Quilmes AC home matches: 10 of 12 had at least one second-half goal (83%).
- CA San Telmo away matches: 8 of 11 had at least one second-half goal (73%).
- Quilmes AC score 67% of their home goals in the second half.
- San Telmo concede 64% of their away goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the low-scoring, low-possession nature of both teams' recent matches suggests a below-average corner count, though confidence is low due to missing direct evidence.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided match logs.
- Primera Nacional matches average around 8.5 corners per game based on league-wide trends.
- Both teams have low possession and shot metrics (all zeros in averages), suggesting limited attacking pressure.
- Quilmes AC home matches tend to be low-event, with few goals and likely few corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Odds of 2.10 imply 48% probability, but our estimate is 60%, creating a 12-point edge. However, the market is efficient on halftime draws in low-scoring leagues, and the edge may be illusory due to small sample bias.