Lillestrom0Rosenborg2

HT 0–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 18–15On targetOn target 4–7CornersCorners 8–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 08:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Lillestrøm's unbeaten home H2H run and Rosenborg's poor away form make a home win or draw likely, but the market has already priced this in.

The top actionable edge is over 3.5 cards at 2.30, where our 60% estimate offers a +16.5pt value gap, fueled by the intense rivalry and both teams' high card averages.

Context

Lillestrøm confirmed the move from Saturday to Sunday on police advice due to past incidents.
- Increased policing and a charged crowd are expected, raising the likelihood of a stop-start, aggressive match.
Last six home league H2Hs: 1-1, 3-0, 3-1, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0.
- Rosenborg's last league win at Åråsen came before this six-match run.
Alexandersson used the same starting XI in his first four league matches.
- Rosenborg led Brann 2-1 before conceding in the 75th and 90+2 minutes on 2 August.
Yttergård Jenssen departed on 23 July after 11 league appearances.
- Kristiansen entered the back four on 31 July, with no prior competitive minutes for Lillestrøm.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lillestrom or Draw

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 70%

−5.0ppshort

Lillestrom are unbeaten in their last 6 home league H2Hs vs Rosenborg (3W 3D), while Rosenborg have a poor away record this season (1W 1D 5L).

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lillestrom or Draw

1.28fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 78%

0.0ppshort

Lillestrom have not trailed at halftime in 4 of their last 5 home matches, while Rosenborg have trailed at halftime in only 2 of their last 7 away matches.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H, and Lillestrom have scored in 6 of 7 home matches while Rosenborg conceded in 6 of 7 away.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lillestrom's strong historical home dominance over Rosenborg and Rosenborg's weak away form make a home win or draw likely.
- Lillestrom are unbeaten in their last 6 home league H2Hs vs Rosenborg (3W 3D), including a 3-0 win in 2023.
- Rosenborg have a poor away record this season: 1W 1D 5L in 7 away games, scoring only 5 goals and conceding 12.
- Lillestrom's home form is solid: 4W 0D 3L, with 14 goals scored and 9 conceded in 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLillestrom or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be level at halftime in recent matches, suggesting a tight first half.
- Lillestrom have been drawing at halftime in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Rosenborg have been drawing at halftime in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- The last H2H at Lillestrom ended 1-1 at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lillestrom's solid first-half home performances and Rosenborg's tendency to start slowly away make a home lead or draw likely.
- Lillestrom have not trailed at halftime in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Rosenborg have trailed at halftime in only 2 of their last 7 away matches.
- Lillestrom's home first-half record: 27% leading, 40% trailing, 33% drawing.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostLillestrom or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lillestrom's stronger second-half home performances and Rosenborg's defensive lapses late in games give the hosts an edge.
- Lillestrom have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Rosenborg have lost the second half in 4 of their last 7 away matches.
- Rosenborg's late-game fade under Alexandersson was evident in their last match (conceded 75' and 90+2').
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLillestromEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, especially in H2H and respective home/away splits.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Lillestrom have scored in 6 of their last 7 home matches, while Rosenborg have conceded in 6 of their 7 away games.
- Rosenborg have scored in 5 of their last 7 away matches despite poor results.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H and Lillestrom's home goal averages support a relatively high-scoring match.
- 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings had over 2.5 goals.
- Lillestrom's home matches average 3.3 total goals (14 scored, 9 conceded in 7 games).
- Rosenborg's away matches average 2.4 total goals, but their overall matches average 2.8 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring averages for both teams and historical H2H data point to a quiet first half.
- Lillestrom average 0.6 first-half goals at home, conceding 0.7.
- Rosenborg average 0.8 first-half goals away, conceding 0.7.
- Only 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings had over 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and H2H history shows high totals.
- Lillestrom average 4.9 corners per game, Rosenborg average 5.8.
- Combined average corners in their matches: Lillestrom 9.8, Rosenborg 10.6.
- Recent H2H corner counts: 12, 11, 10 in last three meetings.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average hovers around the line, making it a borderline call.
- Lillestrom average 3.8 shots on target per game, Rosenborg 4.7.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.5.
- Recent H2H: 7, 9, 8 shots on target in last three meetings.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Average card counts and the heated rivalry context point to a match with multiple bookings.
- Lillestrom average 1.8 yellow cards per game, Rosenborg 1.8.
- Combined average cards: 3.6 per game.
- The intense rivalry and police-driven rescheduling suggest a physical match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 44% leaves no cushion vs our 40% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Lillestrom has seen Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 recent matches

Lillestrom's Over 2.5 goals projection has been fulfilled in 4 of 6 recent matches. At home, all three matches exceeded 2.5 goals, while away only one of three did. The current estimated probability of 55% is within the historical range of 55–65%.

Recent evidence for Lillestrom6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Eliteserien