FC Tulsa0Detroit City1

HT 0–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 10:50 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Tulsa’s unbeaten H2H record and strong home form make them favorites to avoid defeat, with the best value in Double Chance (FC Tulsa or Draw at 1.50) and Under 2.5 Goals (1.80).

Avoid the outright Match Winner market due to a thin edge, and expect a tight, low-scoring first half.

Context

FC Tulsa won 1-0 at Detroit in August 2024 and 3-2 at home in June 2023.
- The overall record is three Tulsa wins and two draws across five matches.
- Detroit have failed to beat Tulsa in any of their previous meetings.
Tulsa's last five home results: 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0.
- They have kept clean sheets in four of those five matches.
- Overall home record this season: 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, with only 6 goals conceded in 10 games.
Detroit drew 2-2 at Miami FC on August 1, starting this road sequence.
- Their away record in the USL Championship is 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses.
- They have conceded 13 goals in 9 away matches, keeping only two clean sheets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Tulsa's strong H2H dominance and solid home form give them an edge, while Detroit City's poor away record (only 2 wins in 9) supports a home win.
- FC Tulsa unbeaten in last 5 H2H meetings (3W, 2D), including 1-0 away win in Aug 2024.
- FC Tulsa home record this season: 5W-3D-2L, 11 goals scored, 6 conceded in 10 matches.
- Detroit City away record this season: 2W-3D-4L, 13 goals scored, 13 conceded in 9 matches.
- FC Tulsa last 5 matches: 3W-1D-1L, scoring 1.2 goals per game, conceding 0.6.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC TulsaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Tulsa's historical H2H control and strong home form make them unlikely to lose, while Detroit City's away struggles reinforce a double chance for the home side.
- FC Tulsa unbeaten in last 5 H2H meetings (3W, 2D).
- FC Tulsa home record: 5W-3D-2L, only 2 losses in 10 home games.
- Detroit City away record: 2W-3D-4L, losing 4 of 9 away matches.
- FC Tulsa last 5 home matches: 3W-1D-1L.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFC Tulsa or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates at halftime, and their recent first-half performances suggest a balanced opening period.
- FC Tulsa led at halftime in 47% of matches, trailed in 20%, drawn in 33%.
- Detroit City led at halftime in 13% of matches, trailed in 33%, drawn in 54%.
- Last 5 FC Tulsa matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss at halftime.
- Last 5 Detroit City matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Tulsa tends to improve after halftime, while Detroit City's defense can be breached later in games, giving a slight edge to the home side in the second half.
- FC Tulsa scored 0.7 second-half goals per game on average (1.3 total - 0.6 first half).
- Detroit City conceded 0.5 second-half goals per game on average (1.2 total - 0.7 first half).
- FC Tulsa won 4 of last 5 second halves (based on match results and halftime scores).
- Detroit City lost 2 of last 5 second halves.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFC TulsaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a FC Tulsa win is plausible given their second-half strength and Detroit City's tendency to fade.
- FC Tulsa drew at halftime in 33% of matches, won 47% overall.
- Detroit City drew at halftime in 54% of matches, lost 29% overall.
- Last 5 FC Tulsa matches: 2 draws at halftime, 3 wins full-time.
- Last 5 Detroit City matches: 2 draws at halftime, 2 losses full-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / FC TulsaEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown low-scoring trends in recent matches, and the H2H history suggests a tight contest, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- FC Tulsa home matches average 1.7 total goals (11 scored, 6 conceded in 10 games).
- Detroit City away matches average 2.9 total goals, but 5 of 9 away games had under 2.5 goals.
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 1-0, 3-2, 1-1, with 2 of 3 under 2.5 goals.
- FC Tulsa last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Tulsa's recent defensive solidity and Detroit City's occasional away scoring struggles suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- FC Tulsa kept 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches.
- Detroit City failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches.
- FC Tulsa home matches: 6 of 10 had at least one team fail to score.
- Last H2H: 1-0 FC Tulsa win with Detroit City not scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average low first-half goal numbers, and recent matches consistently show under 1.5 goals in the first half.
- FC Tulsa first half goals per game: 0.6, first half goals conceded: 0.4.
- Detroit City first half goals per game: 0.4, first half goals conceded: 0.7.
- Last 5 FC Tulsa matches: 4 had under 1.5 first half goals.
- Last 5 Detroit City matches: 4 had under 1.5 first half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the league average suggests a moderate likelihood of over 8.5 corners, but confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- USL Championship average corners per game is approximately 9.5.
- Both teams have similar playing styles that could lead to end-to-end action.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific card data, the league average points to a balanced card count, but the competitive nature of the match could push it over 3.5.
- Card data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- USL Championship average cards per game is approximately 3.8.
- H2H matches have been competitive but not overly aggressive.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied probability of 36% is close to our 40% estimate, leaving only a 4-point edge which is below the 5-point threshold for MEDIUM confidence.

Prediction history

FC Tulsa has been unreliable when projected to win

FC Tulsa has fulfilled 2 of 5 predictions when projected to win. The two draws and one loss among the missed predictions highlight a tendency to drop points at home. The current probability of 40% sits within the historical range of 40–45%, but the team has underperformed relative to an expected 2.2 wins.

Recent evidence for FC Tulsa5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship