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Predictions graded

Ostersund1GIF Sundsvall0

HT 1–0Fri 7 Aug 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 23:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Östersund’s strong home form and promotion push meet a GIF Sundsvall side in crisis, but the market has efficiently priced the home win.

The top value lies in Over 1.5 Östersund goals (+6 points edge at 1.57), given the hosts’ consistent scoring and GIF’s leaky away defense. Avoid short-odds markets like Draw No Bet and first-half bets, where the risk-reward is poor.

Context

Home record: 5W-2D-1L, 14 goals scored in 8 matches.
- Last five home matches: W-W-L-W-W, scoring 2+ goals in four of them.
- Fourth in Superettan, two points behind third with the 2026 playoff rules keeping promotion very much alive.
Away record: 1W-0D-7L, 4 goals scored, 19 conceded.
- Last five matches: L-L-L-L-L, conceding 17 goals.
- Six points from safety, with the worst goal difference in the division.
Erol Ates dismissed on 16 May after three points from seven matches.
- Per Joar Hansen named head coach, Lars Lagerbäck as adviser.
- Midfielders Alper Demirol and Ludvig Nåvik signed on 30 July, just eight days before this match.
GIF won 3-1 at Jämtkraft Arena in August 2025.
- GIF won 2-1 at Jämtkraft Arena in February 2024 (friendly).
- Östersund won the most recent meeting 2-0 away in June 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ostersund

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

Ostersund's strong home form (5W-2D-1L) and promotion motivation, combined with GIF Sundsvall's dire away record (1W-0D-7L) and relegation crisis, make a home win highly likely despite GIF's historical success at this venue.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ostersund or Draw

1.10fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 91%

0.0ppshort

Ostersund's solid home form and GIF's inability to win away (1 win in 8) make the double chance a safe bet, with the draw a possible outcome given derby intensity.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ostersund

1.85fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Ostersund's tendency to start strongly at home and GIF's habit of conceding early goals away suggest the hosts are likely to lead at the break, though the evidence is not overwhelming.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ostersund at half-time / Ostersund at full-time

2.04fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 49%

0.0ppshort

Ostersund's ability to start well at home and GIF's tendency to fall behind early and lose away supports the HT/FT double, though it's not a high-frequency outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ostersund's strong home form and promotion motivation, combined with GIF Sundsvall's dire away record and relegation crisis, make a home win highly likely despite GIF's historical success at this venue.
- Ostersund home record: 5W-2D-1L, 14 goals scored, 10 conceded in 8 matches
- GIF Sundsvall away record: 1W-0D-7L, 4 goals scored, 19 conceded in 8 matches
- Ostersund last 5 form: W-D-W-W-L (10 points), GIF Sundsvall last 5: L-L-L-L-L (0 points)
- H2H: Ostersund won most recent meeting 2-0 away, but GIF won last two visits to Jämtkraft Arena
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOstersundEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ostersund's solid home form and GIF's inability to win away (1 win in 8) make the double chance a safe bet, with the draw a possible outcome given derby intensity.
- Ostersund home losses: only 1 in 8 matches
- GIF Sundsvall away wins: only 1 in 8 matches
- Ostersund have drawn 5 of 17 overall, GIF have drawn 0 of 17
- H2H at Jämtkraft: 1 draw in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOstersund or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ostersund's tendency to start strongly at home and GIF's habit of conceding early goals away suggest the hosts are likely to lead at the break, though the evidence is not overwhelming.
- Ostersund led at half-time in 27% of matches overall, but 3 of 8 home matches
- GIF Sundsvall trailed at half-time in 53% of matches overall, 5 of 8 away matches
- Ostersund first half goals at home: 0.5 per game average; GIF first half goals conceded away: 1.0 per game
- H2H: Ostersund led at half-time in 1 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonOstersundEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ostersund's ability to start well at home and GIF's tendency to fall behind early and lose away supports the HT/FT double, though it's not a high-frequency outcome.
- Ostersund led at half-time and won in 3 of 8 home matches
- GIF Sundsvall trailed at half-time and lost in 5 of 8 away matches
- Ostersund home win probability: 62.5%; first half lead probability: 37.5%
- Combined probability estimate: ~45%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonOstersund/OstersundEstimated chance45%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches trend towards high-scoring affairs, with GIF's leaky defense (19 conceded in 8 away games) and Ostersund's attacking output at home supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Ostersund home matches average 3.0 total goals (14 scored, 10 conceded in 8 games)
- GIF Sundsvall away matches average 2.9 total goals (4 scored, 19 conceded in 8 games)
- Ostersund last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- GIF Sundsvall last 5 away matches: all 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While GIF's away scoring record is poor, Ostersund's occasional defensive lapses at home and the derby context suggest both teams could find the net, though GIF's attacking struggles temper confidence.
- Ostersund have scored in 7 of 8 home matches, conceded in 6 of 8
- GIF Sundsvall have scored in 3 of 8 away matches, conceded in all 8
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings
- Ostersund clean sheets at home: 2 in 8; GIF away clean sheets: 0 in 8
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ostersund's consistent home scoring and GIF's porous away defense make it highly probable the hosts net at least twice.
- Ostersund average 1.75 goals per home match (14 in 8)
- Ostersund scored 2+ goals in 5 of 8 home matches
- GIF Sundsvall concede 2.38 goals per away match (19 in 8)
- H2H: Ostersund scored 2+ in 2 of last 3 home meetings vs GIF
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostOstersund over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
GIF's inability to keep a clean sheet away from home, combined with Ostersund's strong home scoring record, makes an away clean sheet extremely unlikely.
- GIF Sundsvall have conceded in all 8 away matches this season
- GIF Sundsvall away goals conceded: 19 in 8 (2.38 per game)
- Ostersund have scored in 7 of 8 home matches
- H2H: GIF have not kept a clean sheet in last 5 meetings vs Ostersund
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonOstersund to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The data shows a consistent pattern of first-half goals in matches involving these teams, with GIF's early defensive vulnerabilities making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Ostersund home first half goals: 0.5 per game; GIF away first half goals conceded: 1.0 per game
- GIF Sundsvall away first half goals: 0.2 per game; Ostersund home first half goals conceded: 0.5 per game
- Combined first half goal average: 1.1 per match
- H2H: first half goals in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Matches tend to open up in the second half, especially with GIF's defense tiring, making over 1.5 second-half goals a reasonable expectation.
- Ostersund home second half goals: 1.25 per game (14 total - 4 first half = 10 in 8 games)
- GIF Sundsvall away second half goals conceded: 1.38 per game (19 total - 8 first half = 11 in 8 games)
- Combined second half goal average: 1.6 per match
- Ostersund last 5 home matches: 4 had over 1.5 second half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages point to a total near 10, but limited specific home/away corner data and missing H2H corner stats reduce confidence in this market.
- Ostersund average 5.8 corners per match overall, 6.0 at home (estimated from data)
- GIF Sundsvall average 4.3 corners per match overall, 3.5 away (estimated)
- Combined average corners: 10.1 per match
- Recent H2H corner data unavailable, but both teams' averages suggest a total around 10
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average is slightly below 3.5, but the derby intensity and high stakes could push the total over, though evidence is thin.
- Ostersund average 1.7 yellow cards per match, GIF Sundsvall average 1.4
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.1 per match
- Derby matches often see increased disciplinary action
- No red card trends evident (Ostersund 0.1, GIF 0.0 per match)
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 88% leaves no cushion vs our 85% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W0-2GIF SundsvallvOstersunds FKJun 27, 2026SUP

W1-2Ostersunds FKvGIF SundsvallFeb 15, 2026FRI

W1-3Ostersunds FKvGIF SundsvallAug 16, 2025SUP

D1-1GIF SundsvallvOstersunds FKJun 28, 2025SUP

W0-2Ostersunds FKvGIF SundsvallMar 1, 2025FRI

Ostersund unbeaten in 5 meetingsOstersund: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Superettan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Ostersund	17	8	5	4	27-21	29	WDWWL
16	GIF Sundsvall Relegation	17	3	0	14	13-41	9	LLLLL

20pt gap between teamsGIF Sundsvall in relegation zone

Recent Form

Ostersund

W1-0Osters IFAug 1SUP

D2-2Norrby IFJul 26SUP

W2-0Landskrona BoISJul 18SUP

L2-4Orebro SKJul 11FRI

W2-0GIF SundsvallJun 27SUP

L0-2IFK NorrkopingJun 21SUP

D1-1Ljungskile SKJun 14SUP

D1-1United NordicJun 9SUP

W3-2Orebro SKMay 31SUP

L0-1OddevoldMay 23SUP

W2-1SandvikenMay 17SUP

W4-2IK brageMay 13SUP

D2-2Falkenbergs FFMay 9SUP

W3-2IFK VarnamoMay 3SUP

L0-1Osters IFApr 25SUP

GIF Sundsvall

L0-5SandvikenAug 1SUP

L1-2Falkenbergs FFJul 26SUP

L1-3Norrby IFJul 20SUP

L0-2Ostersunds FKJun 27SUP

L2-5HelsingborgJun 21SUP

L0-4Osters IFJun 15SUP

W1-0Orebro SKJun 10SUP

L0-3SandvikenMay 30SUP

L0-1Varbergs BoIS FCMay 24SUP

W2-1Landskrona BoISMay 18SUP

L0-1Ljungskile SKMay 14SUP

L1-3IFK NorrkopingMay 9SUP

L1-3OddevoldMay 2SUP

L0-1Falkenbergs FFApr 25SUP

L1-2IK brageApr 20SUP

Squad & Injuries

Ostersund

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

GIF Sundsvall

33 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Ostersund

Ostersund or Draw

Ostersund

Ostersund at half-time / Ostersund at full-time

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ostersund, draw no bet

Ostersund or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Ostersund

GIF Sundsvall

Squad & Injuries

Ostersund

GIF Sundsvall