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Predictions graded

Paula Badosa Gibert #61Spain1Harriet Dart #117United Kingdom2

Sets 6-3 · 2-6 · 4-6Fri 30 Oct 2026, 05:05 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges5–183%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePaula Badosa · 56 places

Paula Badosa

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 2 in April 2022. Badosa is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard courts.

Current ranking: #61
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Thiago Moura Monteiro

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #117
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 06:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Dart brings 12 wins in 15 hard-court matches and a habit of three-set matches; Badosa is the higher-ranked player but has lost three of her last six completed hard-court matches.

Badosa is still likelier to win, but 1.29 on her asks for 77.5% of the chance. The prices that hold up: Dart 3.75 to win, Dart with a 2.5-game start at 2.75, over 22.5 games at 2.30, over 2.5 sets at 2.60, and Dart at 3.00 in either of the first two sets.

Context

Dart spent two hours and 28 minutes on court in her win over Tjen, while Badosa's victory over Kraus lasted 67 minutes. That creates a marked difference in immediate match load before their October 30 quarterfinal. The durations alone do not establish either player's recovery, but they give the route to this fixture important context.
- Dart's win over Tjen lasted two hours and 28 minutes.
- Badosa's win over Kraus lasted 67 minutes.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Oct 2026, 06:06 · Europe/BucharestAustralian Newswww.australiannews.net · 28 Oct 2026
Dart's 12-3 hard-court record has been built on matches that often run long.
Nine of those 15 matches went the distance, and her hard-court matches average 2.6 sets and 24.0 total games. She has also won the first set in nine of the 15, averaging 5.07 games won to 4.27 games lost in it. That supports the case for a longer contest here, though a straight-set finish remains possible and Badosa's recent wins came in straight sets.
- Dart's hard-court scorelines across 15 matches: eight 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss, four 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses.
- Dart's hard-court matches average 2.6 sets and 24.0 total games across 15 matches (26 August to 28 October 2026).
- Dart's first sets in that sample: nine won, six lost, averaging 5.07 games won to 4.27 games lost.
The head-to-head is level at 1-1, Dart's 6-3 6-4 win in 2022 followed by Badosa's three-set win in 2023.
Two completed meetings a year apart give only a loose guide, but both were competitive, and the 2023 match turned on two tiebreaks before Badosa pulled clear in the decider. That sits alongside Dart's 6-3 6-4 win in 2022 as evidence neither player has dominated the other. The sample is small and says little about current form.
- 2023 meeting: Badosa won 6-7(6) 7-6(5) 6-1.
- 2022 meeting: Dart won 6-3 6-4.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa has the higher ranking and a solid hard-court record, while Dart's stronger recent wins have mostly come against lower-ranked opposition.
- Badosa is ranked 61 to Dart's 117 and has a 7-4 hard-court record in the available 11-match sample.
- Dart is 12-3 on hard, but most recent wins came against opponents ranked 123, 257, 300 and 635.
- Badosa won her last two completed matches 6-1 6-4, including against No. 76 Sinja Kraus.
- Head-to-head is 1-1, with Badosa's 2023 win going three sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance56%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Dart has usually stayed within two games or better in recent completed matches, while Badosa's margins have often been close or negative.
- Dart's recent hard-court game margins were +2, +2, +9, +4, -3 and +5; +2.5 covers in five of six.
- Badosa's recent margins were +7, +7, -2, -3, +1 and -5; she covered -2.5 in only two of six.
- Dart has averaged +3.2 games per match across those six completed matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHarriet Dart +2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Dart's longer matches and frequent three-set wins point to a total above this line, with Badosa also capable of extended sets.
- Dart's hard-court matches average 24.0 total games; Badosa's average 21.8.
- Dart's last win over Tjen lasted two hours and 28 minutes and had 28 games.
- Dart has gone over 22.5 games in five of her last six completed matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance56%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's second-set record is stronger than Dart's, making her the more likely winner if the set is reached.
- Badosa has won the second set in 7 of 11 hard-court matches.
- Badosa's second-set game average is 5.64 won to 4.55 lost.
- Dart has lost the second set in 7 of 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's higher ranking and solid first-set record give her a slight edge to take the opener.
- Badosa has won the first set in 6 of 11 hard-court matches.
- Dart has won the first set in 9 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Badosa's first-set game average is 5.18 won to 4.00 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Dart has regularly gone the distance, and a close matchup with Badosa makes a third set more likely than not.
- Dart's hard-court matches average 2.6 sets and include eight 2-1 wins in 15 matches.
- Badosa's hard-court matches average 2.27 sets, with three 2-1 or 1-2 scorelines in 11.
- Dart's last two completed matches both went three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of the available hard-court matches for both players finished without a tiebreak.
- Badosa's hard-court matches had no tiebreak in 8 of 11; Dart's in 11 of 15.
- The combined sample has tiebreaks in 7 of 26 matches.
- Badosa's last two wins were 6-1 6-4 with no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Prediction history

Paula Badosa: 11/14 recent winner projections matched

11 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Paula Badosa matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Paula Badosa14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·68%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

Paula Badosa to win

68%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·78%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

78%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·62%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

62%probability

Mayar Sherif won

Missed

18 Jul·WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·72%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

Paula Badosa to win

72%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

17 Jul·WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·65%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

65%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-7(6) 7-6(5) 6-1Paula Badosa Gibert#61vHarriet Dart#117Jan 1, 2023

L6-3 6-4Paula Badosa Gibert#61vHarriet Dart#117Nov 10, 2022

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Paula Badosa Gibert

9W 6L

6-1 6-4#76Sinja Kraus 6-1 6-4#161Carol Young Suh Lee

3-6 6-4 6-3#91Antonia Ruzic

7-6(5) 7-5#24Jelena Ostapenko

4-6 7-6(7) 6-4#75Daria Kasatkina

6-3 6-4#201Nadia Podoroska

6-4 6-2#114Mary Stoiana

4-6 6-2 6-2#150Jazmin Ortenzi

6-3 6-2#241Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 7-6(5)#5Cori Gauff

6-1 6-4#75Daria Kasatkina

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-4#52Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-1#83Panna Udvardy

7-5 6-4#128Katarzyna Kawa

6-4 4-0 ret.#52Mayar Sherif

Harriet Dart

12W 3L

6-4 3-6 6-3#46Janice Tjen 6-4 2-6 6-2#123Tatiana Prozorova 6-2 6-1#257Mei Yamaguchi 5-7 7-6(5) 6-1#635Cheuk Ying Shek

7-5 7-6(6)#42Talia Gibson

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3#300Aoi Ito

6-3 6-1#305Rina Saigo

2-6 6-3 6-3#12Iva Jovic

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5—Unknown Player

6-3 6-2#194Yexin Ma

6-2 6-3#437Tiphanie Lemaitre

6-2 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-3 6-2#37Peyton Stearns

2-6 6-4 6-1#384Heather Watson

5-7 6-0 6-3#486Kristina Penickova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PGPaula Badosa GibertGibert

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Harriet DartDartHD

Harriet Dart carries the stronger recent form — Paula Badosa Gibert's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In58.1%—57.6%

1st Serve Won65.5%+2.1pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won44.5%—44.6%

Aces / Match3.5+0.72.8

Double Faults / Match6.12.0 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won46.6%+1.9pp48.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.5%+3.4pp51.9%

Break Pts Saved57.9%+2.3pp55.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.7%+1.4pp53.1%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

58.1%1st Serve In—57.6%

65.5%1st Serve Won+2.1pp67.6%

44.5%2nd Serve Won—44.6%

3.5Aces / Match+0.72.8

6.1Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

46.6%Return Pts Won+1.9pp48.5%

Pressure · 1–1

48.5%Break Pts Converted+3.4pp51.9%

57.9%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp55.6%

Points · 0–1

51.7%Total Pts Won+1.4pp53.1%

Paula Badosa

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Harriet Dart +2.5

Over 22.5

Over 2.5

Harriet Dart

Harriet Dart

Harriet Dart

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Paula Badosa Gibert

Harriet Dart

Stat Battle