WTA GuangzhouFinished

Predictions graded

Paula Badosa Gibert #61Spain2Carol Young Suh Lee #161United States0

Sets 6-1 · 6-4Mon 26 Oct 2026, 08:25 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions1–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePaula Badosa · 100 places

Paula Badosa

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 2 in April 2022. Badosa is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard courts.

Current ranking: #61
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Carol Young Suh Lee

United States

Reached a career-high No. 162 on July 27, 2026 and entered Warsaw at No. 165. She reached the Prague WTA round of 16 in July after qualifying for her tour-level main-draw debut.

Current ranking: #161
Peak ranking: #162 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 14:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Badosa's 100-place ranking edge over Lee is the frame for this Guangzhou first round, but her latest match was a three-set loss to a player ranked 91 and Lee has won twice here this week.

Badosa should still come through, though 1.44 asks for more than the case supports; Lee at 2.75 offers nothing either, so no quoted price is worth taking.

Context

The listed Center Court assignment identifies the fixture's setting and confirms an outdoor hard-court environment in Guangzhou. That is directly relevant to the match's staging and aligns with Lee's structured hard-court preference. No supplied evidence describes court pace, weather, or a player-specific response to these conditions.
- The first-round fixture is listed for Center Court at Nansha International Tennis Center on October 26.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 14:51 · Europe/BucharestTennis.comwww.tennis.com · 25 Oct 2026
That win came one round before her 6-4 6-2 defeat of Elena Pridankina (190) on 25 October, so Lee arrives with two straight wins on the Guangzhou hard court. Vandromme sits 40 places above Lee, which suggests the ranking gap to Badosa is real but not unbridgeable over a best-of-three match. The counterweight is that Lee's three recent defeats came to Blinkova (72), Jeanjean (92) and Tan (215), so results against higher-ranked opposition have mostly gone the other way.
- 24 October 2026: beat Jeline Vandromme (rank 123) 5-7 7-6 6-3 in Guangzhou — completed match, no retirement.
- 25 October 2026: beat Elena Pridankina (rank 190) 6-4 6-2 in Guangzhou.
Badosa arrives off a defeat but has beaten a top-75 opponent in this same recent stretch.
Badosa took the opening set before dropping the next two against an opponent ranked 30 places below her, so the result is a warning rather than a trend. It sits alongside a three-set win over Daria Kasatkina (74) on 1 October and a 6-7 5-7 loss to Jelena Ostapenko (24) two days later in the same hard-court stretch. Taken together with 9 wins from 14 completed matches, the picture is inconsistency at the margins rather than a clear decline.
- 20 October 2026: lost 6-3 4-6 3-6 to Antonia Ruzic (rank 91) — most recent completed match.
- Recent window: 9 wins and 5 losses across 14 completed matches, with one retirement excluded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Paula Badosa Gibert

1.44fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 69.4%

−5.4ppshort

Higher-ranked and generally faced stronger opposition, giving her a clear but not overwhelming edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Higher-ranked and generally faced stronger opposition, giving her a clear but not overwhelming edge.
- Ranked 61, 100 places above Carol Lee at 161.
- Won 9 of 14 completed matches in the recent window.
- Lost most recent match to Antonia Ruzic (rank 91) in three sets.
- Beat Daria Kasatkina (rank 74) in three sets in the same hard-court window.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance64%

Prediction history

Paula Badosa: 11/14 recent winner projections matched

11 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Paula Badosa matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Paula Badosa14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·68%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

Paula Badosa to win

68%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·78%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

78%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·62%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

62%probability

Mayar Sherif won

Missed

18 Jul·WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·72%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

Paula Badosa to win

72%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

17 Jul·WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·65%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

65%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

Previous match context available

Paula Badosa Gibert

9W 6L

3-6 6-4 6-3#91Antonia Ruzic

7-6(5) 7-5#24Jelena Ostapenko

4-6 7-6(7) 6-4#74Daria Kasatkina

6-3 6-4#205Nadia Podoroska

6-4 6-2#114Mary Stoiana

4-6 6-2 6-2#150Jazmin Ortenzi

6-3 6-2#241Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 7-6(5)#5Cori Gauff

6-1 6-4#74Daria Kasatkina

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-4#52Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-1#83Panna Udvardy

7-5 6-4#128Katarzyna Kawa

6-4 4-0 ret.#52Mayar Sherif

3-6 7-5 7-6(1)#143Tamara Zidansek

6-4 7-6(2)#83Panna Udvardy

Carol Young Suh Lee

9W 6L

6-4 6-2#190Elena Pridankina

5-7 7-6(3) 6-3#123Jeline Vandromme

6-3 7-5#215Harmony Tan

6-1 6-3#72Anna Blinkova

6-1 7-6(4)#92Leolia Jeanjean

7-6(5) 7-5#164Emiliana Arango

6-3 7-6(5)#167Vendula Valdmannova

6-4 3-6 6-0#58Katie Boulter

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#105Polina Kudermetova

6-4 7-5#159Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-2 6-2#167Vendula Valdmannova

3-6 7-6(4) 6-1#294Weronika Falkowska

2-6 6-3 6-1#197Aliona Falei

6-4 6-4#157Elsa Jacquemot

7-5 6-4#26Marie Bouzkova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PGPaula Badosa GibertGibert

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Carol Young Suh LeeLeeCL

Carol Young Suh Lee carries the stronger recent form — Paula Badosa Gibert's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In58.3%+4.6pp62.9%

1st Serve Won63.9%+1.9pp65.8%

2nd Serve Won44.7%+3.9pp48.6%

Aces / Match3.2+0.53.7

Double Faults / Match6.54.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.9%+5.3pp41.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.0%+1.5pp44.5%

Break Pts Saved54.1%+1.7pp55.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.3%+1.0pp50.3%

Serve · 0–5

58.3%1st Serve In+4.6pp62.9%

63.9%1st Serve Won+1.9pp65.8%

44.7%2nd Serve Won+3.9pp48.6%

3.2Aces / Match+0.53.7

6.5Double Faults / Match4.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

46.9%Return Pts Won+5.3pp41.6%

Pressure · 1–1

46.0%Break Pts Converted+1.5pp44.5%

54.1%Break Pts Saved+1.7pp55.8%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won+1.0pp50.3%