ChinaWTA GuangzhouFinished

Predictions graded

Harriet Dart #117United Kingdom2Cheuk Ying Shek #635Hong Kong SAR China1

Sets 5-7 · 7-6 · 6-1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Moura Monteiro · 518 places

Thiago Moura Monteiro

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #117
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Cheuk Ying Shek

Hong Kong SAR China

Hong Kong player ranked No. 641, competing mainly in Asian ITF hard-court events, with a straight-sets loss to Sayaka Ishii on 15 September 2026 as her most recent completed match. Age, career-high ranking and preferred surface are not established by the available evidence.

Current ranking: #635
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 · Europe/Bucharest

A qualifying opener with a 518-place ranking gap: Dart is No. 117 and 11-4 across 15 hard-court matches, Shek No. 635 and 5-6 in her hard-court sample.

Dart is the clear sporting pick, most likely in straight sets, but the 1.05 match price asks for 95.2% and gives nothing back. No reviewed price is worthwhile.

Context

Dart's recent hard-court wins have tended to stretch past two sets, with second sets averaging 9.8 games and five tiebreaks across the 15 matches. That points to a longer contest than the ranking gap might suggest, and it works against a quick, clean straight-sets finish. Shek's own matches have finished in two sets far more often, so the two records pull in different directions.
- Dart's 15 completed hard-court matches from 11 August to 19 October 2026 produced five 2-0 wins, six 2-1 wins, three 0-2 losses and one 1-2 loss.
- Dart's average match length in that sample is 2.47 sets and 22.6 total games.
The Court 2 listing fixes this as a qualifying, rather than main-draw, meeting and establishes the immediate stage of the event. That gives the fixture its tournament context and clarifies that both players begin outside the main draw. The available schedule information does not establish a court-specific playing condition or an unusual recovery situation.
- The fixture is listed as a WTA Guangzhou qualifying first-round match on Court 2 for 24 October.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 21:58 · Europe/BucharestTennis.comwww.tennis.com · 23 Oct 2026
The 19 October finish places Dart's Guangzhou qualifying start five days after her most recent recorded match, following two earlier wins at the same event. That supplies current hard-court continuity immediately before this fixture. The available account records no retirement, withdrawal or active physical restriction from that run.
- Dart completed three matches in Japan before Guangzhou, with her run ending against Gibson on 19 October.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 21:58 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 23 Oct 2026
Shek's matches have been decided quickly, in either direction, without many tiebreaks. That profile argues against an extended three-set grind and against a tiebreak-heavy contest. The caveat is the level of the sample: her most recent completed win came against a player ranked 815, so the pattern comes from lower-tier matches than this one.
- Shek's hard-court scorelines across 11 tracked matches: five 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses and two 1-2 losses.
- Her hard-court matches average 2.18 sets with one tiebreak in 11 matches; three retirements were excluded from the sample.
- Her latest completed match was a 2-6 4-6 loss to Chengyiyi Yuan, ranked 429, on 21 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Harriet Dart

1.05fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 95.2%

−13.2ppshort

Dart has a much higher ranking and clearly better hard-court results and game margins, so she is a strong favourite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Dart has a much higher ranking and clearly better hard-court results and game margins, so she is a strong favourite.
- Dart is ranked 117 and is 11-4 in her 15 tracked hard-court matches.
- Shek is ranked 635 and is 5-6 on hard in her current-surface sample.
- Dart has won 57.5% of hard-court games and 62.2% of sets in that sample.
- Shek's latest completed match was a 2-6 4-6 loss to Chengyiyi Yuan.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance82%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart's matches tend to run past 21.5 games, and her second-set record includes several close sets.
- Dart's hard-court matches average 22.6 total games.
- Shek's hard-court matches average 20.4 total games.
- Dart's second sets average 9.8 total games, with five tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Shek's first sets average 9.3 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance53%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dart has the better ranking and a positive first-set record, so she is favoured to start well.
- Dart is 9-6 in first sets across 15 hard-court matches.
- Shek is 6-5 in first sets across 11 hard-court matches.
- Dart's first-set games average 4.8 won and 3.9 lost.
- Shek's first-set games average 5.0 won and 4.3 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHarriet DartEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shek's results lean heavily to straight-set finishes, making under 2.5 the more likely side.
- Shek's hard-court scorelines include five 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses in 11 matches.
- Shek's hard-court matches average 2.18 sets.
- Dart's last completed match was a straight-set loss.
- Dart's hard-court scorelines include five 2-0 wins in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart is the stronger player and a straight-set win fits her record against lower-ranked opposition.
- Dart has five 2-0 wins in 15 hard-court matches.
- Shek has four 0-2 losses and two 1-2 losses in 11 hard-court matches.
- Shek's five hard-court wins were all 2-0, showing she can be competitive in straight sets.
- Dart's average match length is 2.47 sets.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostHarriet Dart 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shek's low tiebreak count and Dart's lack of first-set tiebreaks make no the more likely outcome.
- Shek has had only one tiebreak in 11 hard-court matches.
- Dart has had a tiebreak in 5 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Shek's latest completed match was a 2-6 4-6 straight-set loss.
- Dart's first sets had no tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance66%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.05 price requires 95.2%, above our 82.0% estimate.

Harriet Dart

11W 4L

7-5 7-6(6)#42Talia Gibson

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3#314Aoi Ito

6-3 6-1#306Rina Saigo

2-6 6-3 6-3#12Iva Jovic

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5—Unknown Player

6-3 6-2#200Yexin Ma

6-2 6-3#471Tiphanie Lemaitre

6-2 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-3 6-2#37Peyton Stearns

2-6 6-4 6-1#388Heather Watson

5-7 6-0 6-3#555Kristina Penickova

6-0 6-7(1) 6-1—Jordyn Hazelitt

6-1 7-6(6)#37Peyton Stearns

6-3 6-4#314Aoi Ito

6-3 6-0#121Moyuka Uchijima

Cheuk Ying Shek

8W 7L

6-2 6-4#429Chengyiyi Yuan

6-3 5-7 6-2#371Jia-Jing Lu

7-6(2) 6-4#589Sayaka Ishii

6-3 4-6 6-2#873Eva Marie Desvignes

6-1 6-3#815Meng Yi Chen

5-7 6-4 6-3#770Gaeul Jang

6-3 6-1#684Yushan Shao

6-3 ret.#859Meiling Wang

7-5 6-3#659Alina Trynkina

6-3 7-5#638Ikumi Yamazaki

6-1 6-4—Xinyi Nong

7-5 3-0 ret.#859Meiling Wang

6-1 5-1 ret.#613Yuhan Wang

6-2 6-4#272Hiromi Abe

6-2 6-2#741Chia Yi Tsao

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HDHarriet DartDart

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Cheuk Ying ShekShekCS

Harriet Dart carries the stronger recent form — Cheuk Ying Shek's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.5%+13.7pp69.2%

1st Serve Won67.8%+8.7pp59.1%

2nd Serve Won43.9%—43.3%

Aces / Match2.3+1.01.3

Double Faults / Match4.01.0 fewer3.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.2%+1.2pp48.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.4%+5.5pp54.9%

Break Pts Saved59.2%+4.1pp55.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+2.0pp51.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

55.5%1st Serve In+13.7pp69.2%

67.8%1st Serve Won+8.7pp59.1%

43.9%2nd Serve Won—43.3%

2.3Aces / Match+1.01.3

4.0Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.0

Return · 1–0

49.2%Return Pts Won+1.2pp48.0%

Pressure · 1–1

49.4%Break Pts Converted+5.5pp54.9%

59.2%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp55.1%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+2.0pp51.1%