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Predictions graded

Paula Badosa Gibert #61Spain2Sinja Kraus #76Austria0

Sets 6-1 · 6-4Wed 28 Oct 2026, 07:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–280%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePaula Badosa · 15 places

Paula Badosa

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 2 in April 2022. Badosa is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard courts.

Current ranking: #61
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Sinja Kraus

Austria

Austrian right-hander born 29 April 2002. She reached a career-high No. 80 on 20 July 2026 after winning her first WTA 125 singles title in Cali in 2025.

Current ranking: #76
Peak ranking: #80 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest

A second-round hard-court meeting in Guangzhou between two players separated by 15 ranking places, with no head-to-head to settle it.

Badosa's ranking makes her the marginal favourite, but Kraus's 9-4 hard-court record keeps the match close. Kraus to win at 3.5 is the best of the quoted prices, with her first set at 2.9, her second set at 2.75 and Over 21.5 games at 2.05 also holding up; Badosa at 1.3 does not.

Context

The loss to a top-50 opponent lasted 15 games and was over in straight sets.
This is the clearest evidence that Kraus's 9-4 hard-court record has a ceiling against higher-ranked opposition. Gibson is ranked 42, well above Kraus at 76, and the scoreline shows how quickly the match ran away. Badosa is not at Gibson's ranking, so the comparison is not direct, but it explains why Kraus's recent form is best treated as competitive rather than dominant.
- On 21 October 2026, Kraus lost 2-6 1-6 to Talia Gibson (ranked 42).
- Kraus won 3 games and lost 12 in the match.
Badosa recovered from a set down and edged a second-set tiebreak before closing it out.
The result shows Badosa can come through a long, close hard-court match against an opponent ranked in the same region as Kraus. It also shows her matches can run: this one reached 33 games and needed a tiebreak. Against Kraus, that cuts both ways, since it supports both her resilience in tight sets and the possibility of a drawn-out contest.
- On 1 October 2026, Badosa beat Daria Kasatkina (ranked 74) 4-6 7-6 6-4.
- Badosa won 17 games and lost 16 across three sets, including one tiebreak.
Kraus, ranked 76, took six of the eight games in the second set to close out her opener.
Kraus needed 18 games to get past a lower-ranked opponent, which sets a reasonable baseline for her level on this surface. Udvardy sits at 83, so this is the sort of win a top-80 player is expected to take rather than a statement result. Badosa at 61 is a step up in ranking terms, and the manner of this win says more about Kraus's solidity than about any edge against a higher-ranked opponent.
- On 26 October 2026, Kraus beat Panna Udvardy (ranked 83) 6-4 6-2 in Guangzhou.
- Kraus won 12 games and lost 6 in the match, with no tiebreak.
Badosa, ranked 61, raced through the first set 6-1 before a tighter second set.
Badosa's opening match was short and clean against an opponent ranked 161, so it offers little test against the standard Kraus brings. The value in it is workload: she spent 17 games on court and did not need a third set. Her hard-court record in the current sample stands at 6-4 from 10 completed matches, and this result is one of the straightforward ones within it.
- On 26 October 2026, Badosa beat Carol Young Suh Lee (ranked 161) 6-1 6-4 in Guangzhou.
- Badosa won 12 games and lost 5 in the match, with no tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's higher ranking and solid hard-court win rate give her a slight advantage in a close match.
- Badosa is ranked 61, 15 places above Kraus at 76.
- Badosa has won 6 of 10 completed hard-court matches in the current sample.
- Kraus has won 9 of 13 hard-court matches, but her losses include straight-set defeats to Gibson and Sonmez.
- No head-to-head matches are available.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kraus only needs to stay close or win, and Badosa's recent margins were frequently close or negative.
- Badosa's six recent hard-court game margins are +7, -2, -3, +1, -5 and +6.
- Kraus has won 9 of 13 completed hard-court matches.
- Kraus needs to stay within two games or win to clear this handicap.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostSinja Kraus +2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set game averages sit below the 9.5 mark.
- Badosa's first sets average 9.4 total games.
- Kraus's first sets average 9.23 total games.
- The combined sample has four first-set tiebreaks in 23 completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
The combined total-game averages sit near the line, with enough three-set matches to favor the over slightly.
- Badosa's hard-court matches average 22.3 total games.
- Kraus's hard-court matches average 21.3 total games.
- The combined sample has 7 three-set matches in 23 completed matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's longer second sets lift the combined average just above the line.
- Badosa's second sets average 10.2 total games.
- Kraus's second sets average 9.08 total games.
- The combined sample has two second-set tiebreaks in 23 completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Most completed hard-court matches for both players finished in straight sets.
- Badosa has played straight sets in 7 of 10 completed hard-court matches.
- Kraus has played straight sets in 9 of 13 completed hard-court matches.
- The combined sample has 16 straight-set matches in 23 completed matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's stronger second-set game margin gives her a slight advantage in the second set.
- Badosa has a 6-4 second-set record in 10 completed hard-court matches.
- Badosa averages 5.6 second-set games won and 4.6 lost.
- Kraus has an 8-5 second-set record in 13 completed hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's slightly stronger first-set game margin offsets Kraus's better first-set win count.
- Badosa has a 5-5 first-set record in 10 completed hard-court matches.
- Badosa averages 5.1 first-set games won and 4.3 lost.
- Kraus has an 8-5 first-set record in 13 completed hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed hard-court matches for both players did not include a tiebreak.
- Badosa has had a tiebreak in 3 of 10 completed hard-court matches.
- Kraus has had a tiebreak in 3 of 13 completed hard-court matches.
- The combined sample has 6 matches with a tiebreak in 23 completed matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance69%

Prediction history

Paula Badosa: 11/14 recent winner projections matched

11 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Paula Badosa matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Paula Badosa14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·68%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

Paula Badosa to win

68%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·78%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

78%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·62%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

62%probability

Mayar Sherif won

Missed

18 Jul·WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·72%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

Paula Badosa to win

72%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

17 Jul·WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·65%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

65%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

Previous match context available

Paula Badosa Gibert

9W 6L

6-1 6-4#161Carol Young Suh Lee

3-6 6-4 6-3#91Antonia Ruzic

7-6(5) 7-5#24Jelena Ostapenko

4-6 7-6(7) 6-4#74Daria Kasatkina

6-3 6-4#201Nadia Podoroska

6-4 6-2#114Mary Stoiana

4-6 6-2 6-2#150Jazmin Ortenzi

6-3 6-2#241Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 7-6(5)#5Cori Gauff

6-1 6-4#74Daria Kasatkina

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-4#52Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-1#83Panna Udvardy

7-5 6-4#128Katarzyna Kawa

6-4 4-0 ret.#52Mayar Sherif

3-6 7-5 7-6(1)#141Tamara Zidansek

Sinja Kraus

11W 4L

6-4 6-2#83Panna Udvardy

6-2 6-1#42Talia Gibson

6-4 3-1 ret.#59Caty McNally

7-6(4) 6-4#126Sofia Kenin

6-1 3-6 6-2#375Momoko Kobori

6-2 6-4#63Zeynep Sonmez

7-6(3) 6-2#77Magda Linette

6-0 4-6 6-3#29Nikola Bartunkova

6-1 6-4#103Dayana Yastremska

4-1 ret.#27Anastasia Potapova

6-3 3-6 7-5#90Maya Joint

6-3 6-0#217Reese Brantmeier

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#286Elena Malygina

6-4 7-5#242Matilde Jorge

6-1 6-4#313Lizette Cabrera

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PGPaula Badosa GibertGibert

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Sinja KrausKrausSK

Sinja Kraus carries the stronger recent form — Paula Badosa Gibert's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.7%—59.4%

1st Serve Won64.5%+2.9pp61.6%

2nd Serve Won43.4%+4.8pp48.2%

Aces / Match3.3+1.61.7

Double Faults / Match6.53.5 fewer3.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won47.2%—46.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted46.1%+3.9pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved54.5%+4.0pp58.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.4%—51.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.7%1st Serve In—59.4%

64.5%1st Serve Won+2.9pp61.6%

43.4%2nd Serve Won+4.8pp48.2%

3.3Aces / Match+1.61.7

6.5Double Faults / Match3.5 fewer3.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

47.2%Return Pts Won—46.6%

Pressure · 0–2

46.1%Break Pts Converted+3.9pp50.0%

54.5%Break Pts Saved+4.0pp58.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.4%Total Pts Won—51.4%

Paula Badosa

Sinja Kraus

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Sinja Kraus

Sinja Kraus

Sinja Kraus

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Paula Badosa Gibert

Sinja Kraus

Stat Battle