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Predictions graded

Mayar Sherif #97Egypt2Paula Badosa Gibert #115Spain0

Sets 6-4 · 4-0Mon 20 Jul 2026, 14:30 Predictions gradedFinalClay

Predictions1–614%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMayar Sherif · 18 places

Mayar Sherif

Egypt

Career-high No. 31 came on 2023-06-19. Her cited WTA bio is heavily clay-weighted, with most of her standout 2023-26 results and titles coming on that surface. She has been coached by Justo Gonzalez Martinez since her teens.

Current ranking: #97
Peak ranking: #31 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Paula Badosa Gibert

Spain

Career-high No. 2 came on 2022-04-25. The WTA lists Pol Toledo as her current coach and describes 2025 as injury-affected. She arrives in Iasi on a nine-match winning streak after winning the Bastad WTA 125 title.

Current ranking: #115
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 06:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Paula Badosa’s nine-match clay winning streak and dominant 2023 H2H win give her a slight edge over Mayar Sherif’s 14-0 clay run.

Expect a tight, physical final with value on over 20.5 games, Sherif +3.5 games, and over 8.5 double faults. Badosa is favored to win, but Sherif’s resilience could push it to three sets.

Context

Sherif beat Putintseva 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(5) in a 3:09 quarterfinal on July 18.
- She then beat Oliynykova 6-3, 6-1 in the semifinal on July 19, showing no immediate fatigue.
- The final is her third match in three days, with less than 24 hours between the semifinal and final.
Badosa won the Bastad WTA 125 title and has won four matches in Iasi, including a semifinal comeback from 4-1 down in the decider.
- She has won 9 of her last 10 clay matches, with the only loss a three-setter to Grabher in April.
- Her last five clay wins include victories over top-100 opponents Udvardy (71) and Kalinina (59).
Badosa won 6-3, 6-1 in the 2023 Charleston quarterfinal on clay.
- Sherif won their first meeting 6-3, 6-0 in 2013, but both players were juniors then.
- Badosa's return points won (58%) and break point conversion (46%) in that match were far superior.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Badosa's current 9-match clay winning streak and higher-quality recent opposition give her a slight edge over Sherif's perfect clay record, with the most recent H2H win reinforcing the advantage.
- Badosa has won 9 straight matches on clay, including the Bastad WTA 125 title and four wins in Iasi this week.
- Sherif is 14-0 on clay in her last 15 matches, but her last 5 wins include a 3:09 marathon vs. Putintseva and a tight three-setter vs. Vandromme.
- H2H is 1-1 on clay, but Badosa won their most recent meeting 6-3, 6-1 in 2023.
- Badosa's clay return points won (48.4%) and break point conversion (38.3%) in last 10 clay matches edge Sherif's 52% return but 49.4% conversion, with Badosa facing stronger recent opponents.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both players are in strong form and have been pushed to three sets recently, making a competitive match with over 20.5 games likely.
- Sherif's last 5 clay matches averaged 21.4 games per match.
- Badosa's last 5 clay matches averaged 22.6 games per match.
- Both players have been involved in tight matches: Sherif's last 5 include two three-setters, Badosa's include two three-setters.
- Combined, their recent clay matches have gone over 20.5 games in 8 of last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Sherif's strong clay form and Badosa's tendency for close matches make Sherif +3.5 games a solid bet, as she is unlikely to lose by a wide margin.
- Sherif's last 5 clay matches: average game margin of +4.4 games.
- Badosa's last 5 clay matches: average game margin of +2.2 games.
- Sherif has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 13 of her last 14 clay matches.
- Badosa's wins have often been tight, with 3 of her last 5 clay wins by 4 games or fewer.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMayar Sherif +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both players are strong first-set performers on clay, but Badosa's slightly higher first-set win conversion and recent H2H first-set win tip the scale marginally.
- Badosa has won the first set in 8 of her last 10 clay matches (80%).
- Sherif has won the first set in 12 of her last 14 clay matches (85.7%).
- Badosa's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, Sherif's is 87%.
- In their 2023 meeting, Badosa won the first set 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Badosa's high double fault rate on clay, combined with Sherif's moderate rate, makes over 8.5 double faults likely in a competitive match.
- Badosa averages 6.7 double faults per match on clay in last 10 matches.
- Sherif averages 2.4 double faults per match on clay in last 14 matches.
- Combined average double faults per match: 9.1.
- Badosa has hit 8+ double faults in 6 of her last 10 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Badosa's ace count could push the total over 5.5 if the match goes three sets, but Sherif's low ace rate makes this a coin flip.
- Badosa averages 3.7 aces per match on clay in last 10 matches.
- Sherif averages 0.7 aces per match on clay in last 14 matches.
- Combined average aces per match: 4.4, but Badosa's ace rate is higher in longer matches.
- In their 2023 meeting, total aces were 3.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L6-3 6-1Mayar Sherif#97vPaula Badosa Gibert#115Apr 4, 2023

W6-3 6-0Mayar Sherif#97vPaula Badosa Gibert#115Sep 9, 2013

2 total meetings

Mayar Sherif

14W 1L

6-3 6-1#52Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-2 3-6 7-6(5)#82Yulia Putintseva

6-3 7-6(2)#100Kaitlin Quevedo

6-2 6-0#137Dalma Galfi

3-6 7-6(0) 7-5#129Jeline Vandromme

7-5 7-6(3)#110Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 6-3#340Alicia Herrero Linana

6-3 7-5#404Amandine Hesse

6-4 6-2#271Yasmine Kabbaj

6-2 6-2#470Heather Watson

6-4 6-3#89Xiyu Wang

6-3 6-3#196Elizara Yaneva

6-2 6-2#168Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

3-6 6-3 6-3#213Jennifer Ruggeri

6-1 7-6(5)#323Raluca Georgiana Serban

Paula Badosa Gibert

11W 4L

3-6 7-5 7-6(1)#148Tamara Zidansek

6-4 7-6(2)#71Panna Udvardy

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#275Alevtina Ibragimova

6-3 6-1#59Anhelina Kalinina

7-5 7-5#81Simona Waltert

6-1 6-2#82Yulia Putintseva

7-5 7-6(3)#172Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 6-2#96Emiliana Arango

6-3 6-2#144Marina Bassols Ribera

4-6 6-3 7-5#26Emma Navarro

6-1 6-3#7Linda Noskova

1-6 6-3 6-2#4Cori Gauff

6-3 6-2#147Suzan Lamens

6-1 7-6(2)#56Daria Snigur

7-6(3) 4-6 6-0#116Julia Grabher

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMayar SherifSherif

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Paula Badosa GibertGibertPG

Mayar Sherif carries the stronger recent form — Paula Badosa Gibert's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In78.0%+23.9pp54.1%

1st Serve Won60.4%+8.3pp68.7%

2nd Serve Won49.3%+2.9pp46.4%

Aces / Match0.8+3.34.1

Double Faults / Match2.54.0 fewer6.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.9%+5.4pp45.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.4%+12.0pp37.4%

Break Pts Saved49.0%+6.4pp55.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.3%+2.7pp51.6%

Serve · 3–2

78.0%1st Serve In+23.9pp54.1%

60.4%1st Serve Won+8.3pp68.7%

49.3%2nd Serve Won+2.9pp46.4%

0.8Aces / Match+3.34.1

2.5Double Faults / Match4.0 fewer6.5

Return · 1–0

50.9%Return Pts Won+5.4pp45.5%

Pressure · 1–1

49.4%Break Pts Converted+12.0pp37.4%

49.0%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp55.4%

Points · 1–0

54.3%Total Pts Won+2.7pp51.6%