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Predictions graded

Adrian Mannarino #79France0Daniil Medvedev #5Russia2

Sets 2-6 · 3-6Fri 30 Oct 2026, 12:40 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions8–373%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Medvedev · 74 places

Adrian Mannarino

France

Mannarino, 38, is the left-hander in this matchup and reached career-high No. 17 in January 2024. He has said he enjoys playing on all surfaces.

Current ranking: #79
Peak ranking: #17 · 2024
Current age: 38
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

Former world No. 1, with his career-high ranking reached in February 2022. His 2026 Dubai title was awarded by walkover after Tallon Griekspoor withdrew from the final; this was not a Medvedev fitness issue.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Medvedev's 5-1 head-to-head lead and 12-2 recent run make him the clear favourite, but 1.2 on him to win the match asks too much.

The margins hold more interest: Over 2.5 sets at 2.75, Mannarino to win the first set at 3.5 and Medvedev to win 2-1 at 3.8 all offer something.

Context

The 6-4, 7-5 victory over Mensik on 28 October placed Mannarino in the Vienna quarter-finals. It followed an Almaty semi-final the prior week, linking two consecutive indoor events. That sequence explains the immediate competitive context of his Vienna run before facing Medvedev.
- Mannarino's 6-4, 7-5 win over Mensik placed him in the Vienna quarter-finals after his Almaty semi-final the previous week.
ReportedSources checked 29 Oct 2026, 22:07 · Europe/BucharestThe Stats Zonewww.thestatszone.com · 29 Oct 2026
Medvedev's win over Norrie required him to erase a 5-3 final-set deficit and save a match point before a 7-1 deciding tie-break. That three-set route provides the immediate lead-in to this quarter-final and marks his 100th career appearance at this stage. The lopsided closing tie-break is a useful counterpoint to the late pressure he faced.
- Medvedev beat Norrie 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(1) after trailing 5-3 in the deciding set and saving a match point.
ReportedSources checked 29 Oct 2026, 22:07 · Europe/BucharestThe Stats Zonewww.thestatszone.com · 29 Oct 2026
Medvedev has won five of the pair's six meetings and the last four, so the 2025 result fits a long pattern rather than a one-off.
The tiebreak first set is the useful detail, because Mannarino has won 10 of his 14 opening sets in the current window while Medvedev's first sets have averaged 10.2 games. If that pattern holds, the early part of this quarter-final is where Mannarino is most likely to stay level, while Medvedev's 11-2 second-set record points the other way later.
- 12 June 2025: Medvedev beat Mannarino 7-6(6), 6-4, with the opening set decided by a tiebreak.
Mannarino has been a fast starter in this window, and the middle of the match is where his numbers fall away.
That drop is the difference between a player who starts well and one who sustains it, and Medvedev won 11 of 13 second sets in his own recent sample while conceding 3.2 games per second set. This quarter-final looks likely to get harder for Mannarino the longer it runs. His two-set comebacks against Buse and Rublev show he can still close out three-setters, so the pattern is not absolute.
- Sample: 14 completed hard-court best-of-three matches, 24 September to 28 October 2026.
- First sets: 10 wins, 4 losses, 5.2 games won against 5.0 lost.
- Second sets: 6 wins, 8 losses, 4.6 games won against 5.1 lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Medvedev's ranking, current form and head-to-head record all point clearly his way against a lower-ranked left-hander.
- Medvedev is 12-2 across his last 14 completed matches, all on hard courts, and ranked 5 against Mannarino's 79.
- He has won five of six career meetings, including the last four.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance76%

Games2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mannarino has been losing narrowly rather than heavily, which favours him staying within five games.
- Mannarino's recent matches average 24.1 games with only one lopsided defeat in six.
- Half of Medvedev's last six completed matches finished with a margin under five games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAdrian Mannarino +4.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets regularly reach ten games or more, often through tiebreaks.
- Medvedev's first sets average 10.2 total games with three tiebreaks in 13 matches.
- Mannarino's first sets average 10.2 total games with four tiebreaks in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's dominant second sets are the main reason this line leans under.
- Medvedev concedes only 3.2 games per second set and wins 5.5 across 13 matches.
- Mannarino has lost 8 of 14 second sets, often by clear margins.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mannarino's competitive scorelines make a narrow defeat or better the slightly likelier outcome.
- Mannarino has lost by more than three games only once in his last six completed matches.
- Medvedev's average recent margin of +3.8 games sits narrowly above this line.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAdrian Mannarino +3.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's short second sets are the strongest single factor pushing the total below the line.
- Medvedev has played 13 recent hard-court matches averaging 22.1 total games.
- He conceded only 3.2 games per second set in that sample.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
The second set is where Medvedev has been most dominant and Mannarino most vulnerable.
- Medvedev has won 11 of 13 second sets on this surface, with zero tiebreaks in those sets.
- Mannarino is 6-8 in second sets over his recent hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's opening-set record is strong and Mannarino's first sets have been extremely tight.
- Medvedev has won the opening set in 9 of 13 recent hard-court matches.
- Mannarino has won 10 of 14 opening sets but averages only 5.2 games won against 5.0 lost in that set.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are marginally the more common outcome in the combined recent samples.
- Eight of Medvedev's 13 recent hard-court best-of-three matches ended 2-0.
- Mannarino has lost in straight sets in three of his four recent defeats.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these recent matches finished without a tiebreak, which keeps no the favoured side.
- Medvedev's total-games average of 22.1 across 13 matches is on the short side.
- Mannarino's matches featured a tiebreak in less than half of his recent sample.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.2 price requires 83.3%, above our 76.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

4-5 (9 meetings)

L7-6(6) 6-4Adrian Mannarino#79vDaniil Medvedev#5Jun 12, 2025

L7-6(6) 6-2Adrian Mannarino#79vDaniil Medvedev#5Sep 28, 2024

L6-3 6-3 7-6(5)Adrian Mannarino#79vDaniil Medvedev#5Jul 7, 2023

W4-6 6-4 6-2Adrian Mannarino#79vDaniil Medvedev#5Jun 15, 2023

L7-5 7-5Adrian Mannarino#79vDaniil Medvedev#5Jun 11, 2022

L6-2 6-1Adrian Mannarino#79vDaniil Medvedev#5Mar 23, 2019

W6-4 6-3 4-6 5-7 6-3Adrian Mannarino#79vDaniil Medvedev#5Jul 6, 2018

W6-3 6-1Adrian Mannarino#79vDaniil Medvedev#5Aug 7, 2017

W6-4 6-2Adrian Mannarino#79vDaniil Medvedev#5Jun 9, 2016

9 total meetings

Previous match context available

Adrian Mannarino

11W 4L

6-4 7-5#16Jakub Mensik 0-6 7-5 6-4#32Ignacio Buse 7-5 6-2#80Alex Molcan

6-4 7-6(5)#51Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-3 6-1#95Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 3-6 6-3#22Andrey Rublev

7-6(4) 4-6 6-3#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-2 6-4#24Karen Khachanov

6-1 4-6 6-3#6Flavio Cobolli

6-3 2-2 ret.#95Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(5)#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#52Denis Shapovalov

6-4 6-4#30Alejandro Tabilo

7-6(9) 6-2#250Juncheng Shang

Daniil Medvedev

13W 2L

4-6 6-3 7-6(1)#41Cameron Norrie

7-6(5) 6-1#42Daniel Merida Aguilar 6-7(6) 6-1 6-3#95Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-3 ret.#19Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-4#90Terence Atmane

6-2 6-1#106Sho Shimabukuro

6-3 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

6-3 1-6 6-3#15Tommy Paul

6-4 7-5#33Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-3#119Dalibor Svrcina

4-6 6-4 6-3#47Jan-Lennard Struff

7-5 5-3 def.#12Novak Djokovic

7-6(4) 6-3#19Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 6-3#47Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 6-2#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAdrian MannarinoMannarino

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniil MedvedevMedvedevDM

Daniil Medvedev carries the stronger recent form — Adrian Mannarino's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In67.1%+1.6pp65.5%

1st Serve Won73.6%+4.7pp78.3%

2nd Serve Won50.3%—50.8%

Aces / Match5.9+4.110.0

Double Faults / Match1.12.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.9%+4.7pp41.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.5%+1.9pp36.6%

Break Pts Saved56.3%+15.1pp71.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.0%+3.5pp54.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

67.1%1st Serve In+1.6pp65.5%

73.6%1st Serve Won+4.7pp78.3%

50.3%2nd Serve Won—50.8%

5.9Aces / Match+4.110.0

1.1Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

36.9%Return Pts Won+4.7pp41.6%

Pressure · 1–1

38.5%Break Pts Converted+1.9pp36.6%

56.3%Break Pts Saved+15.1pp71.4%

Points · 0–1

51.0%Total Pts Won+3.5pp54.5%

Adrian Mannarino

Daniil Medvedev

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Adrian Mannarino

Daniil Medvedev 2-1

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 5 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Daniil Medvedev

Head-to-Head

Adrian Mannarino

Daniil Medvedev

Stat Battle