KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Terence Atmane #98France2Mattia Bellucci #68Italy1

Sets 6-7 · 7-6 · 7-6Thu 22 Oct 2026, 06:35 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMattia Bellucci · 30 places

Terence Atmane

France

Reached a career-high No. 41 on April 13, 2026. The reviewed public results did not establish a reliable preferred-surface label or a current active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #98
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

Italian left-hander whose ATP career-high ranking is No. 63, achieved in July 2025. Official player profiles list hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #68
Peak ranking: #63 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 07:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Bellucci brings a six-match run and the stronger hard-court numbers into a second round against a fresher Atmane, who won their only recorded meeting.

Bellucci winning is the likeliest outcome, and the 1.75 match price, 1.73 for the opening set and 2.6 for a Bellucci 2-0 win all offer something. The 1.5 on a two-set finish does not.

Context

Two retirements sit inside the month before this match, at Jingshan on 30 September and in Shanghai qualifying on 5 October. His straight-sets win over Rinky Hijikata was his first completed match since, and finishing a two-set match does not show that a long three-setter is available against an opponent who has won six matches in a row. Coming through a full match at least removes the immediate worst case, so the honest read is an unresolved physical question rather than a confirmed problem.
- Atmane retired against Elias Ymer in Jingshan on 30 September with the score 4-6 7-5 5-5.
- He retired again in Shanghai qualifying on 5 October, trailing Bernard Tomic 6-3 4-6 5-3.
- The Almaty opener against Hijikata was his first completed match after those two retirements.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Bellucci has played on six of the nine days from 13 to, including a Challenger final on 18 October, a flight to Kazakhstan and a 2 hour 29 minute three-setter in the Almaty first round. Atmane had entirely free after a straight-sets opener, so the recovery gap is a full day plus roughly 90 minutes of saved court time. Six straight wins show the load has not yet cost him results, which is the counterpoint; the accumulation is the one measurable asymmetry in preparation between two left-handers arriving from very different fortnights.
- Bellucci won the Jinan final on 18 October and played his Almaty first round .
- The Etcheverry win took 2 hours 29 minutes and went to a third set.
- He faces Atmane on 22 October, a seventh match in ten days and a second consecutive day of play.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:05 · Europe/Bucharest
The Jinan title is the reason Bellucci reached Almaty on a six-match winning run and the reason his recent results read considerably better than his ranking. It also explains the schedule pressure in this match, since the final was played four days before he steps on court against Atmane. The limitation is level: a Challenger title run does not transfer directly to an ATP 250 main draw, and he is still without a tour-level singles title, so the run qualifies his form without settling how it holds up here.
- Bellucci beat Martin Landaluce in three sets in the Jinan final .
- It was his first Challenger title of 2026 and his fifth Challenger title overall.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Beating the sixth seed is the strongest evidence available that Bellucci's Challenger form carries into tour-level conditions, because it came in his first ATP main-draw match after the Jinan title. Etcheverry at No. 29 is a far better opponent than anyone he faced in China, so the win upgrades the meaning of the streak. The cost was a dropped second set at 2-6 and 2 hours 29 minutes of court time, and the performance was less clean than the result suggests.
- Bellucci beat sixth seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6(5) 2-6 6-4 in Almaty .
- The result extended his winning run to six matches.
- He lost the second set 2-6 before closing the match in the third.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 07:05 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Bellucci has the deeper hard-court sample and clearly stronger serving numbers, and he has beaten the higher-ranked opposition in this draw.
- 13-2 in his last 15 completed hard-court matches, winning 59.9% of games and 54.5% of points.
- 65.3% first serves in, 76.3% of first-serve points won, 8.7 aces and 1.9 double faults per match across that sample.
- Beat No. 29 Etcheverry 7-6(5) 2-6 6-4 in the Almaty first round for a sixth straight win.
- Ranked No. 68 against No. 98, and his tracked hard-court set record is 13-2 first sets and 12-3 second sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMattia BellucciEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane's sets in this window have been tight, so staying within two games of Bellucci looks the more likely outcome.
- Atmane's most recent completed match produced a +5 game margin against Hijikata.
- Bellucci's last two wins came with game margins of -1 and +5.
- Atmane's tracked sets have been close: 5.55-4.55 in first sets and 5.64-5.27 in second sets.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTerence Atmane +2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players hold serve well, which produces scorelines around 6-4 rather than long deuce-filled sets.
- Bellucci's tracked hard-court matches averaged 22.5 total games per match.
- Atmane's 11 tracked hard-court matches averaged 23.5 total games.
- Bellucci's first sets averaged 9.2 games and second sets 9.4 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Bellucci has started matches strongly on this surface all window and his serve gives him the early advantage.
- Won 13 of 15 first sets across tracked hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Averaged 5.87 games won against 3.33 lost in first sets.
- Took the opening set 7-6(5) against Etcheverry in the Almaty first round.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both players' recent hard-court records lean towards two-set finishes, and Bellucci's serving shortens sets when he is on top.
- Bellucci's 15 tracked hard-court best-of-three matches averaged 2.33 sets, 10 finishing 2-0.
- Atmane's 11 such matches averaged 2.27 sets.
- Their combined straight-set rate across those samples is well above half.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The aggregate second-set record still favours Bellucci, though it is weaker than his first-set numbers.
- Won 12 of 15 second sets across tracked hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Averaged 5.53 games won against 3.87 lost in second sets.
- Lost the second set in each of his last two matches despite winning both.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMattia BellucciEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' recent sets have been broken open before reaching 6-6.
- Bellucci had only 5 tiebreaks in 15 tracked hard-court matches.
- His matches averaged 22.5 total games, with most sets finishing 6-4 or shorter.
- Atmane's first sets averaged 10.1 games with just 2 tiebreaks in 11 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Mattia Bellucci: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Mattia Bellucci matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mattia Bellucci5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·58%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

58%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·72%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

Mattia Bellucci to win

72%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·62%

Missed

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

62%probability

Alex Bolt won

Missed

24 May·ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

24 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Quentin Halys won

Missed

11 May·ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

11 May 2026

ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Missed

Previous match context available

Terence Atmane

8W 7L

7-6(5) 6-2#86Rinky Hijikata

6-3 4-6 5-3 ret.#180Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-5 5-5 ret.#228Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#435Enzo Aguiard

6-1 6-4#620Dominik Palan

3-6 7-6(9) 6-4#56Jaime Faria

6-7(5) 3-6 6-1 7-6(4) 7-5#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#2Alexander Zverev

6-3 7-6(4)#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

3-1 ret.#141Marton Fucsovics

7-5 6-4#16Jakub Mensik

6-4 7-6(3)#25Karen Khachanov

6-3 2-6 6-2#157Jack Draper

6-3 7-6(6)#31Alejandro Tabilo

4-6 6-3 6-4#9Frances Tiafoe

Mattia Bellucci

13W 2L

7-6(5) 2-6 6-4#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-2 4-6 6-3#67Martin Landaluce 6-2 7-6(2)#129Shintaro Mochizuki 6-4 6-4#108Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 6-4#207Luka Pavlovic

6-2 6-1#228Elias Ymer

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#280Yi Zhou

6-4 6-2#131Alexandre Muller

4-6 7-5 7-6(3)#228Elias Ymer

1-6 6-3 7-6(4)#104Lloyd Harris

6-4 6-4#284Yanki Erel

7-5 6-2#97Adam Walton

6-0 6-3#131Alexandre Muller

6-2 6-2#478Keisuke Saitoh

6-2 6-4#641Filip Peliwo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TATerence AtmaneAtmane

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Mattia BellucciBellucciMB

Mattia Bellucci carries the stronger recent form — Terence Atmane's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.2%+4.1pp65.3%

1st Serve Won76.5%—76.3%

2nd Serve Won53.2%+5.6pp58.8%

Aces / Match8.3+0.48.7

Double Faults / Match3.21.3 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won31.3%+9.0pp40.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.7%+8.6pp38.1%

Break Pts Saved68.8%+7.5pp76.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.3%+4.2pp54.5%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

61.2%1st Serve In+4.1pp65.3%

76.5%1st Serve Won—76.3%

53.2%2nd Serve Won+5.6pp58.8%

8.3Aces / Match+0.48.7

3.2Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

31.3%Return Pts Won+9.0pp40.3%

Pressure · 1–1

46.7%Break Pts Converted+8.6pp38.1%

68.8%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp76.3%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won+4.2pp54.5%

Terence Atmane

Mattia Bellucci

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci 2-0

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Terence Atmane

Mattia Bellucci

Stat Battle