Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Bellucci's cleaner Rome rhythm and recent top-30 clay win give him a slight edge, despite Landaluce's H2H dominance on faster surfaces.
- Bellucci has won 2 Rome main-draw matches in May 2026, including a comeback over No. 26 Etcheverry, showing strong current clay form.
- Landaluce lost in Rome qualifying to Pellegrino (rank 155) and entered as lucky loser; his Rome path is less clean.
- H2H is 0-3 in Landaluce's favor, but all meetings were on hard/grass; no clay H2H data.
- Bellucci's career clay win rate is 61/116 (52.6%), while Landaluce's is 40/83 (48.2%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMattia BellucciEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Landaluce's recent losses are competitive, and Bellucci rarely blows out opponents; +3.5 games covers most scenarios.
- Landaluce's last 5 losses: by 3, 7, 6, 7, 3 games; only one loss by more than 3.5 games.
- Bellucci's last 5 wins: by 5, 4, 1, 2, 3 games; only one win by more than 3.5 games.
- H2H margins: 3, 5, 4 games in Landaluce's wins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMartin Landaluce +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
First sets tend to be tight when both players are holding serve at decent rates; over 9.5 is likely.
- Bellucci's last 5 first sets: 7-5, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 2-6 (avg 9.8 games).
- Landaluce's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 1-6, 4-6 (avg 9.0 games).
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 69-72%, limiting early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Competitive clay match with two solid returners and moderate serve stats points to a total above 21.5 games.
- Bellucci's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games; Landaluce's last 5 averaged 21.8.
- Both players have break-point save rates around 61-62%, suggesting extended games.
- Landaluce's 3-set match vs Pellegrino and Bellucci's 3-setter vs Etcheverry indicate stamina for longer matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight lean to over based on Bellucci's ability to push sets deep, but Landaluce's recent second-set efficiency tempers confidence.
- Bellucci's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 6-4, 1-6, 6-4, 6-4 (avg 9.0 games).
- Landaluce's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3 (avg 8.6 games).
- Landaluce's second-set dominance in recent wins may shorten this set, but Bellucci's resilience could extend it.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight lean to Bellucci based on his cleaner Rome form, but first-set outcomes are volatile; confidence is low.
- Bellucci won first set in 3 of his last 5 matches; Landaluce won first set in 3 of his last 5.
- Bellucci's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, Landaluce's is 83%.
- No clay H2H data to inform set-level dynamics.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMattia BellucciEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H and similar double-fault rates suggest a combined total above 5.5 is plausible.
- Bellucci's double-fault rate is 4.5%, Landaluce's is 5.4%.
- In H2H, they combined for 19 double faults in 3 matches (avg 6.3 per match).
- Both have moderate second-serve win rates (51% and 49%), encouraging aggressive second serves.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight lean to over based on Bellucci's higher ace rate, but clay surface and H2H data suggest a moderate total.
- Bellucci's ace rate is 8% (career), Landaluce's is 5.4%.
- In H2H, they combined for 20 aces in 3 matches (avg 6.7 per match).
- Clay typically reduces ace counts, but both have decent first serves.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Mattia Bellucci #80Italy0Martin Landaluce #94Spain2

Player Profiles

Mattia Bellucci

Martin Landaluce

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Martin Landaluce +3.5

Over 9.5

Mattia Bellucci

Over 21.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci

Martin Landaluce