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Predictions graded

Mattia Bellucci #86Italy2Shintaro Mochizuki #123Japan0

Sets 6-2 · 7-6Sat 17 Oct 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMattia Bellucci · 37 places

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

Italian left-hander whose ATP career-high ranking is No. 63, achieved in July 2025. Official player profiles list hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #86
Peak ranking: #63 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

Reached a career-high No. 92 on November 10, 2025 after moving into the Top 100 that autumn. Former world No. 1 junior.

Current ranking: #123
Peak ranking: #92 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 15:38 · Europe/Bucharest

A place in the Jinan final is at stake, with Bellucci through without dropping a set and Mochizuki needing three sets and a deciding tiebreak to reach the last four.

Bellucci's serve and hard-court record make him the likely winner, though Mochizuki's 46.7% break-point conversion keeps the match live. At 1.30 for the match, 1.40 for set one and 1.44 for set two, none of the quoted Bellucci prices offers value, and Mochizuki's 3.20 is no bargain either.

Context

Bellucci has spent only six sets across the Jinan draw, closing out Ymer, Pavlovic and Shevchenko without a deciding set. That leaves him comparably rested for the semifinal against an opponent who needed three sets and a deciding tiebreak in the quarterfinal. Shevchenko, ranked No. 111, is the strongest player he has beaten this week, so the straight-set run reflects control over lower-ranked opposition as much as dominant form.
- Three straight-set wins at the Jinan Open, including a 6-4 6-4 quarterfinal against Alexander Shevchenko .
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 15:36 · Europe/BucharestLottomatica Sportwww.lottomatica.sport · 16 Oct 2026
Mochizuki was a set down and then a tiebreak away from elimination, so his route to the last four has been more fragile than Bellucci's. Watanuki, ranked No. 406 but a former top-75 player, needed treatment for a back and leg problem in the deciding set, which complicates how much the win says about Mochizuki's current level. Mochizuki also needed tiebreaks to close both earlier wins this week, against Facundo Diaz Acosta and Dane Sweeny.
- Mochizuki won 4-6 6-2 7-6 over Yosuke Watanuki in the Jinan quarterfinals .
- Watanuki received treatment for a back and leg problem at 3-2 in the third set.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 15:36 · Europe/BucharestLottomatica Sportwww.lottomatica.sport · 16 Oct 2026
Bellucci arrived in Jinan directly from a final the previous week, having taken the opening set 6-1 before losing a deciding tiebreak to Lloyd Harris. Back-to-back deep runs on the Asian hard-court swing are the main workload caveat to his set-free progress in Jinan. The Jingshan result also shows his autumn hard-court form spans more than one week.
- Bellucci was beaten by Lloyd Harris 1-6 6-3 7-6 in the Jingshan final earlier in October.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 15:36 · Europe/BucharestLottomatica Sportwww.lottomatica.sport · 16 Oct 2026
Bellucci, ranked No. 86, has landed 62.8% of first serves across that 15-match sample.
Bellucci's serve gives him a stable base for this semifinal and underpins his 57.6% hard-court games-won rate over the same 15 matches. Mochizuki converts 46.7% of break points, so those service games will be tested rather than untroubled. If the first serve keeps its rate, Bellucci should keep pressure on Mochizuki's return games.
- Last 15 hard-court matches to 16 October 2026: 75.7% first-serve points won (462 of 610), 69.1% break points saved (47 of 68), 62.8% first serves in (610 of 971).
- Bellucci won 57.6% of games (185 of 321) in the same 15-match sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mattia Bellucci

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

−6.9ppshort

Bellucci has served and returned better on hard courts this season and is the fresher, higher-ranked player at Jinan.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mattia Bellucci

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

−3.4ppshort

Bellucci starts hard-court matches strongly and has a clear first-set record over Mochizuki.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mattia Bellucci

1.44fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 69.4%

−3.4ppshort

Bellucci's second-set record on hard is the strongest part of his set-by-set numbers.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Bellucci has served and returned better on hard courts this season and is the fresher, higher-ranked player at Jinan.
- Hard-court last 15: Bellucci 11-4, 57.6% games won; Mochizuki 8-7, 48.4% games won
- Bellucci 75.7% first-serve points won and 69.1% break points saved
- Jinan: Bellucci won all three matches in straight sets
- Mochizuki in at 50.1% first serves and 5.1 double faults per match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance70%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average slightly fewer than 9.5 games.
- Bellucci set-2 total games average: 9.23
- Mochizuki set-2 total games average: 9.43
- Bellucci lost set 2 only twice in 13 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have tended to run a little beyond the low-20s number of games.
- Bellucci hard-court total games average: 21.3
- Mochizuki hard-court total games average: 22.4
- Mochizuki has played three-setters in recent wins
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci's first sets usually finish without many games because he breaks early.
- Bellucci set 1: 5.54 games won, 3.54 lost (9.08 total)
- Bellucci wins set 1 in 10 of 13 matches
- Bellucci's Jinan openers were 6-2 and 6-4
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Bellucci starts hard-court matches strongly and has a clear first-set record over Mochizuki.
- Set 1 on hard: Bellucci 10-3, Mochizuki 6-8
- Bellucci wins 71.4% of sets on hard
- Bellucci won all three Jinan openers in straight sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Bellucci's second-set record on hard is the strongest part of his set-by-set numbers.
- Set 2 on hard: Bellucci 11-2, Mochizuki 8-6
- Bellucci wins 71.4% of sets on hard
- Bellucci has dropped set 2 only twice in 13 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have mostly finished in straight sets.
- Bellucci set evidence: 9 of 13 hard-court matches ended 2-0
- Mochizuki set evidence: 10 of 14 matches ended in straight sets
- Bellucci averaged 2.23 sets per match on hard
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Bellucci: 10 of 13 recent matches had no tiebreak
- Mochizuki: 9 of 14 recent matches had no tiebreak
- Both players average more than 5 breaks of serve combined
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined double-fault average is just below the line.
- Combined recent average is about 7.2 double faults
- Bellucci 2.1 double faults per match on hard
- Mochizuki 5.1 double faults per match on hard
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' ace rates added together land at around eleven per match.
- Bellucci 8.1 aces per match; Mochizuki 3.0
- Combined recent average is about 11.1 aces
- Mochizuki returns at 40.8% of points won
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Mattia Bellucci: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Mattia Bellucci matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mattia Bellucci5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·58%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

58%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·72%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

Mattia Bellucci to win

72%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·62%

Missed

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

62%probability

Alex Bolt won

Missed

24 May·ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

24 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Quentin Halys won

Missed

11 May·ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

11 May 2026

ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Missed

Previous match context available

Mattia Bellucci

11W 4L

6-4 6-4#111Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 6-4#207Luka Pavlovic

6-2 6-1#192Elias Ymer

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#277Yi Zhou

6-4 6-2#133Alexandre Muller

4-6 7-5 7-6(3)#192Elias Ymer

1-6 6-3 7-6(4)#110Lloyd Harris

6-4 6-4#300Yanki Erel

7-5 6-2#98Adam Walton

6-0 6-3#133Alexandre Muller

6-2 6-2#550Keisuke Saitoh

6-2 6-4#661Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-4#70Kamil Majchrzak

6-0 6-1 6-1#12Taylor Fritz

6-4 6-2 6-0#114Zsombor Piros

Shintaro Mochizuki

8W 7L

4-6 6-2 7-6(2)#406Yosuke Watanuki

6-3 7-6(5)#112Dane Sweeny

6-2 7-6(6)#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-2 6-3#79Roman Safiullin

2-6 6-2 6-2#177Taro Daniel

6-2 6-4#60Jaime Faria

6-1 6-4#104Martin Damm

7-5 6-3#187Pavel Kotov

7-5 4-6 7-5#817Linang Xiao

7-6(4) 6-1#187Pavel Kotov

6-1 6-4 7-5#15Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-2#229Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-1#211Braden Shick

7-6(5) 6-4#315Daniel Milavsky

7-5 4-6 6-3#161Soon-Woo Kwon

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMattia BellucciBellucci

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Shintaro MochizukiMochizukiSM

Mattia Bellucci carries the stronger recent form — Shintaro Mochizuki's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In62.8%+12.7pp50.1%

1st Serve Won75.7%+5.3pp70.4%

2nd Serve Won53.7%+9.3pp44.4%

Aces / Match8.1+5.13.0

Double Faults / Match2.13.0 fewer5.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.4%—40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.1%+8.6pp46.7%

Break Pts Saved69.1%+13.5pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.4%+4.3pp49.1%

Serve · 5–0

62.8%1st Serve In+12.7pp50.1%

75.7%1st Serve Won+5.3pp70.4%

53.7%2nd Serve Won+9.3pp44.4%

8.1Aces / Match+5.13.0

2.1Double Faults / Match3.0 fewer5.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.4%Return Pts Won—40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

38.1%Break Pts Converted+8.6pp46.7%

69.1%Break Pts Saved+13.5pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

53.4%Total Pts Won+4.3pp49.1%