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Predictions graded

Mattia Bellucci #86Italy2Martin Landaluce #73Spain1

Sets 6-2 · 4-6 · 6-3Sun 18 Oct 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Landaluce · 13 places

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

Italian left-hander whose ATP career-high ranking is No. 63, achieved in July 2025. Official player profiles list hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #86
Peak ranking: #63 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Martin Landaluce

Spain

Reached career-high No. 55 on 15 June 2026; ATP lists grass as his favourite surface. He became the first player born in 2006 or later to reach an ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final at Miami in March 2026.

Current ranking: #73
Peak ranking: #55 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 03:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Bellucci has not dropped a set in four matches in Jinan, yet he arrives at the final trailing Landaluce 4-1 in their series.

The form says Bellucci wins, probably in straight sets. Bellucci at 1.55 for the title, 1.6 for the opening set, 1.6 for the second set and 2.4 for a 2-0 win all ask less than his week and hard-court numbers justify; Landaluce at 2.3 and 2.2 does not.

Context

Bellucci has played four matches in Jinan without conceding a set, so he arrives at the final with the shortest possible court time and no long three-setter behind him. That matters against an opponent who was taken to three sets once this week, because a 125-level final is usually settled in the closing games of the second set, where freshness and a settled serve-return rhythm show. The limitation is the draw: his opponents were ranked No. 111 or lower, so the clean run reflects orderly handling of Challenger-level opposition rather than a test against top-50 power. The unbroken set record is the more telling part, since he has not yet had to solve a match from a set down here.
- Beat Shintaro Mochizuki 6-2 7-6(2) in the semifinal
- Won all four Jinan matches in straight sets, including 6-4 6-4 over Alexander Shevchenko in the quarter-final
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 03:11 · Europe/BucharestPrealpinawww.prealpina.it · 17 Oct 2026
Landaluce controlled this series until this season, and the 2024 Olbia final is a direct precedent for him winning a title match against Bellucci on clay in Italy. Bellucci's Winston-Salem win in August 2026 was his first in five attempts and came after he lost a second-set tiebreak, so the most recent evidence describes a closer contest than the 4-1 tally implies. The question for a hard-court final is whether Landaluce's earlier wins reflect a durable matchup advantage or simply a younger opponent at a lower ranking. With only one meeting in the past two years, the series explains the occasion better than it forecasts the result.
- Landaluce won their first four meetings, starting with the 2024 Olbia final 6-4 6-4
- Bellucci won at Winston-Salem in August 2026, 6-4 6-7(3) 6-1
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 03:11 · Europe/BucharestLottomatica Sportwww.lottomatica.sport · 17 Oct 2026
Bellucci has now reached three finals this season without converting any, and the Jingshan final a week ago was decided by a tiebreak after he had levelled the match. A second title match in seven days tests whether that pattern is about the quality of the opponent in front of him or about how he closes finals. The stakes are concrete: a first title of the season and a fifth Challenger title, against a player who beat him in the 2024 Olbia final. Back-to-back finals also mean this is his fifth match of the week in a fourth consecutive tournament week, so any drop in level would surface late in the match.
- Third final of 2026 after Cap Cana and Jingshan, where he lost to Lloyd Harris 1-6 6-3 7-6(4)
- Ninth career Challenger final, seeking a fifth Challenger title and first of the season
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 03:11 · Europe/BucharestLottomatica Sportwww.lottomatica.sport · 17 Oct 2026
Landaluce has slipped from a career-high No. 55 in June to No. 73 while losing eight of fifteen matches, and the move down to 125 level has produced the sequence of wins that ATP events did not. The final therefore carries live ranking points and a first title chance of 2026 at a point when his season had stalled. The limitation is the opposition: his four wins came against players ranked No. 154 or lower, so this is his first top-100 test of the week. Bellucci, who beat him in August, is a left-hander who has already shown he can take the match away in three sets.
- Beat Liam Draxl 7-6(0) 6-3 in the semifinal as the fifth seed
- First ATP Challenger final of the season after a stretch of early ATP-level defeats
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 03:11 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Bellucci has served and returned clearly better on hard this window and is winning sets far more often, which points to a solid advantage in the final.
- Hard-court sets won: Bellucci 24/34 (70.6%), Landaluce 17/34 (50.0%)
- Hard-court games won: Bellucci 56.6% (180/318), Landaluce 49.3% (170/345)
- Total points won: Bellucci 53.2% vs Landaluce 49.4%
- Jinan: Bellucci won all four matches in straight sets; Landaluce dropped a set to Keegan Smith
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance71%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci has repeatedly taken the first set by a clear margin, keeping the opening set short.
- Bellucci set 1 games won 5.57, lost 3.43 for 9.0 total
- No Bellucci set 1 tiebreaks across 14 hard-court matches
- Landaluce set 1 average 10.0 games
- Bellucci's recent Jinan set 1 scores: 6-2, 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landaluce's second sets are the longest part of his matches and often need a tiebreak or a late break.
- Landaluce set 2 total games average 10.7
- Bellucci set 2 total games average 9.5
- Landaluce three set 2 tiebreaks in 12 matches
- Bellucci one set 2 tiebreak in 14 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landaluce's matches run long and a decent share of both players' matches go the distance, pushing the total near or above the line.
- Set-evidence total games average: Bellucci 21.3, Landaluce 24.7
- Three-set rate: Bellucci 4/14, Landaluce 5/12
- Landaluce set 1 average 10.0 games, set 2 average 10.7
- Jinan: Landaluce's four wins included 22, 26 and 22-game matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Bellucci starts sets strongly and has lost the opening set only three times in fourteen hard-court matches.
- Set 1 record on hard: Bellucci 11-3, Landaluce 6-6
- Bellucci set 1 games won average 5.57, lost 3.43
- Bellucci zero set 1 tiebreaks in 14 matches
- Landaluce lost set 1 in 6 of 12 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Bellucci has won twelve of fourteen second sets on hard, a strong base for taking this one.
- Set 2 record on hard: Bellucci 12-2, Landaluce 7-5
- Bellucci set 2 games won average 5.79, lost 3.71
- Bellucci 1 set 2 tiebreak, Landaluce 3
- Bellucci converted 37% of break points overall
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMattia BellucciEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci's straight-set habit this week and Landaluce's tendency to lose in two make a two-set finish the more likely shape.
- Bellucci 2-0 in 10 of 14 hard-court matches
- Bellucci has not dropped a set in four Jinan matches
- Landaluce 2-0 in 4 of 12 matches, 0-2 in 3 more
- Landaluce set 1 record 6-6 on hard
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Bellucci's straight-set record and clean week make a 2-0 win the single most likely scoreline.
- Bellucci 2-0 in 10 of 14 hard-court matches
- Bellucci has not dropped a set in four Jinan matches
- Landaluce 0-2 in 3 of 12 hard-court matches
- Bellucci set 1 record 11-3, set 2 record 12-2
BetBugs · Set BettinglostMattia Bellucci 2-0Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci breaks serve often enough that his sets usually avoid tiebreaks entirely.
- Bellucci no set 1 tiebreaks in 14 matches
- Bellucci 10 of 14 matches finished 2-0
- Landaluce four matches with a tiebreak in 12
- Average match lengths: Bellucci 97 minutes, Landaluce 134
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landaluce's high double-fault rate alone nearly reaches the line, and Bellucci adds about two per match.
- Double faults per match: Landaluce 5.7 (74/13), Bellucci 1.9 (28/15)
- Combined average about 7.6
- Landaluce's 74 double faults came in 13 hard-court matches
- Bellucci's 28 in 15 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' ace rates add up to roughly the line, with Bellucci's serve the main driver.
- Aces per match: Bellucci 7.9 (119/15), Landaluce 5.1 (66/13)
- Combined average about 13.0
- Bellucci 63% first serves in on hard
- Landaluce 61.4% first serves in
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Mattia Bellucci: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Mattia Bellucci matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mattia Bellucci5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·58%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

58%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·72%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

Mattia Bellucci to win

72%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·62%

Missed

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

62%probability

Alex Bolt won

Missed

24 May·ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

24 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Quentin Halys won

Missed

11 May·ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

11 May 2026

ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-4 6-7(3) 6-1Mattia Bellucci#86vMartin Landaluce#73Aug 23, 2026

L6-4 6-3Mattia Bellucci#86vMartin Landaluce#73May 11, 2026

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mattia Bellucci

11W 4L

6-2 7-6(2)#123Shintaro Mochizuki 6-4 6-4#111Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 6-4#207Luka Pavlovic

6-2 6-1#192Elias Ymer

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#277Yi Zhou

6-4 6-2#133Alexandre Muller

4-6 7-5 7-6(3)#192Elias Ymer

1-6 6-3 7-6(4)#110Lloyd Harris

6-4 6-4#300Yanki Erel

7-5 6-2#98Adam Walton

6-0 6-3#133Alexandre Muller

6-2 6-2#550Keisuke Saitoh

6-2 6-4#661Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-4#70Kamil Majchrzak

6-0 6-1 6-1#12Taylor Fritz

Martin Landaluce

7W 8L

7-6(0) 6-3#219Liam Draxl 3-6 6-2 6-3#202Keegan Smith

6-4 7-5#420Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#154Ilia Simakin

6-4 6-4#59Jan-Lennard Struff

6-1 6-7(9) 7-6(2)#90Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-3#252Matias Soto

6-0 6-4#148Dusan Lajovic

4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3#96Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#86Mattia Bellucci

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 4-6 6-4#38Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 7-5#158Jack Draper

4-6 6-4 6-3#119Nicolas Mejia

6-4 6-3#94Michael Zheng

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMattia BellucciBellucci

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Martin LandaluceLandaluceML

Mattia Bellucci carries the stronger recent form — Martin Landaluce's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1563.0%+1.6pp61.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.9%+7.1pp67.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1555.6%+9.4pp46.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/157.9+3.04.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.93.7 fewer5.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.8%+1.0pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1537.0%+4.4pp41.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1569.1%+8.8pp60.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.2%+4.2pp49.0%

Serve · 5–0

63.0%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp61.4%

74.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.1pp67.8%

55.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+9.4pp46.2%

7.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.04.9

1.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.7 fewer5.6

Return · 1–0

39.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

37.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp41.4%

69.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+8.8pp60.3%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp49.0%

Mattia Bellucci

Martin Landaluce

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci

Martin Landaluce

Stat Battle