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Predictions graded

Fajing Sun #303China0Alibek Kachmazov #525Russia2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Fri 9 Oct 2026, 04:47 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFajing Sun · 222 places

Fajing Sun

China

Chinese right-hander whose official ITF profile lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 197 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #303
Peak ranking: #197 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

Kachmazov reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #525
Peak ranking: #161 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 01:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Kachmazov arrives with 14 wins in 15 hard-court matches and an unbroken run of 15 second sets, yet he sits 222 ranking places below sixth seed Sun.

He is the likelier winner, and three quoted selections hold value: Kachmazov to win the second set at 1.6, Kachmazov 2-0 at 2.2, and Kachmazov to win the first set at 1.6. The 1.55 on him to win the match asks too much, and Sun's prices do not appeal.

Context

Kachmazov has closed out second sets with unusual consistency across a 15-match sample from 7 September to 8 October 2026.
If this quarter-final reaches a second set, Kachmazov's record says he has taken that set in every one of his 15 hard-court matches this autumn. Sun has lost seven of his 14 second sets in the same window, so dropping the first set would leave him needing to break a pattern Kachmazov has not yet slipped on.
- Kachmazov won 15 of 15 second sets across 15 completed hard-court matches tracked from 7 September to 8 October 2026.
- He averaged 6.20 games won to 3.07 lost in those second sets, with two second-set tiebreaks.
These serve numbers cover the same 15 hard-court matches from 7 September to 8 October 2026, not Kachmazov's season as a whole.
A first-serve points-won rate of 80.6% leaves few return chances, so Sun's path is to make the most of the break points he does create. Kachmazov has saved 34 of 45 in this window, which is why the serving side of this match matters more than the ranking gap.
- Over 15 completed hard-court matches (7 September–8 October 2026), Kachmazov averaged 8.3 aces and 2.4 double faults per match.
- He won 80.6% of first-serve points (398 of 494) and 58.5% of second-serve points (271 of 463).
- He saved 75.6% of break points faced (34 of 45) and converted 45.5% (50 of 110).
Sun's hard-court sample covers 14 completed matches with one retirement excluded, so it describes this autumn rather than his career.
Sun rarely finishes quickly: seven three-setters and four straight-set defeats in the same 14-match window, with first sets averaging 4.93 games won to 5.00 lost. If he can push sets past nine games, he gives himself the kind of longer contest he has been playing.
- Sun's 14 completed hard-court matches from 11 August to 8 October 2026 averaged 25.7 total games, with one retirement excluded.
- Seven of the 14 went to a third set and four ended in straight-set defeats; five matches featured a tiebreak.
- His first sets averaged 4.93 games won to 5.00 lost; second sets 5.07 to 5.43.
The draw places a seeded player against a qualifier in the Wuning quarterfinals. Sun's seed and Kachmazov's qualifying entry establish their different routes into this fixture. These entry labels do not, by themselves, describe either player's level in the matches already played.
- Sun held the sixth seed for Wuning Challenger III.
- His seeding ranking was No. 299 on 28 September 2026.
- Kachmazov entered the singles main draw from qualifying.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 19:45 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Wuning Challenger IIIen.wikipedia.org · 8 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Kachmazov's dominant recent hard-court form and serve statistics outweigh his lower ranking.
- Kachmazov is 14-1 on hard in his last 15 completed matches.
- He has won 12 of 15 matches in straight sets and 29 of 33 sets.
- He averages 8.3 aces per match and wins 80.6% of first-serve points.
- He has won all 15 second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance60%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's efficient straight-set wins make the under slightly more likely.
- Kachmazov's 15 hard-court matches average 21.0 total games.
- He has won 12 of 15 matches in straight sets.
- Sun's matches average 25.7 total games, but he lost 4 matches in straight sets.
- Kachmazov's straight-set wins often produce totals around 18-20 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The averages sit just above the line, making over slightly more likely.
- Sun's first sets average 9.93 total games on hard.
- Kachmazov's first sets average 9.93 total games on hard.
- Sun has played 1 tiebreak in 14 first sets; Kachmazov has 4 in 15.
- Both players' first-set averages are just above the 9.5 line.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sun's longer second sets push the total up, while Kachmazov's are shorter.
- Sun's second sets average 10.5 total games on hard.
- Kachmazov's second sets average 9.27 total games on hard.
- Sun has 3 tiebreaks in 14 second sets; Kachmazov has 2 in 15.
- Kachmazov's recent second sets include two 7-6 scorelines.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kachmazov's unblemished second-set record strongly favors him in the second set.
- Kachmazov has won all 15 second sets on hard.
- He averages 6.20 games won to 3.07 lost in second sets.
- Sun has lost 7 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Kachmazov's second-set tiebreak count is 2 in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kachmazov's strong first-set record and serve stats make him the clear favorite for the opening set.
- Kachmazov has won 12 of 15 first sets on hard.
- He wins 80.6% of first-serve points and 75.6% of break points saved.
- Sun has lost 8 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Kachmazov's first-set game average is 6.07 won to 3.87 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' straight-set tendencies, especially Kachmazov's, favor a two-set match.
- Kachmazov has won 12 of 15 hard matches in straight sets.
- He has won 29 of 33 sets on hard.
- Sun has lost 4 of 14 matches in straight sets.
- Kachmazov's straight-set rate is 80%.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Kachmazov's strong straight-set record makes a 2-0 win the most likely exact score.
- Kachmazov has won 12 of 15 hard matches in straight sets.
- He has won 29 of 33 sets on hard.
- Sun has lost 4 of 14 hard matches in straight sets.
- Kachmazov's 2-0 rate among wins is 12 of 14.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAlibek Kachmazov 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's dominant sets and Sun's occasional lopsided losses make a tiebreakless match more likely.
- Sun has avoided tiebreaks in 9 of 14 hard matches.
- Kachmazov has avoided tiebreaks in 10 of 15 hard matches.
- Kachmazov has won 12 of 15 matches in straight sets.
- Many of Kachmazov's wins feature decisive breaks rather than tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Previous match context available

Fajing Sun

9W 6L

6-4 7-5#397Kasidit Samrej 6-3 1-0 ret.#891Aoran Wang

6-4 6-7(8) 6-3#185Bernard Tomic

6-2 6-0#79Roman Safiullin

6-4 7-5#185Bernard Tomic

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#283Matthew Dellavedova

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#474Alexandr Binda

7-5 3-6 7-5#184Alexis Galarneau

7-5 6-4#420Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#225Chun Hsin Tseng

6-0 7-5#831Hanyi Liu

6-7(2) 6-4 7-6(2)#364Tung-Lin Wu

7-5 7-5#247Hayato Matsuoka

4-6 7-6(4) 6-3#432Semen Pankin

6-2 3-6 6-2—Zangar Nurlanuly

Alibek Kachmazov

14W 1L

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#479Evan Zhu 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#268Charles Broom 6-1 6-1#865Grigoriy Lomakin

6-1 6-2—Yan Lang Chen

6-3 6-4#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-3#674Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(4) 6-2#898Sheng Tang

6-3 6-3#595Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-2—Xirui Han

6-3 6-4#756Yunseong Chung

6-4 7-5#651Nikolai Barsukov

6-3 6-4#586Robin Catry

7-5 6-1#896Qian Sun

6-7(3) 6-1 6-1—Shaoyun Liu

7-6(1) 2-6 6-4#570Gabriel Ghetu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FSFajing SunSun

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Alibek KachmazovKachmazovAK

Alibek Kachmazov carries the stronger recent form — Fajing Sun's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In64.6%+13.0pp51.6%

1st Serve Won70.2%+10.4pp80.6%

2nd Serve Won55.2%+3.3pp58.5%

Aces / Match4.9+3.48.3

Double Faults / Match1.50.9 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.8%+5.6pp42.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted40.2%+5.3pp45.5%

Break Pts Saved60.9%+14.7pp75.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.6%+5.1pp55.7%

Serve · 2–3

64.6%1st Serve In+13.0pp51.6%

70.2%1st Serve Won+10.4pp80.6%

55.2%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp58.5%

4.9Aces / Match+3.48.3

1.5Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

36.8%Return Pts Won+5.6pp42.4%

Pressure · 0–2

40.2%Break Pts Converted+5.3pp45.5%

60.9%Break Pts Saved+14.7pp75.6%

Points · 0–1

50.6%Total Pts Won+5.1pp55.7%

Fajing Sun

Alibek Kachmazov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov 2-0

Alibek Kachmazov

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Fajing Sun

Alibek Kachmazov

Stat Battle