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Predictions graded

Evan Zhu #479United States0Alibek Kachmazov #525Russia2

Sets 6-7 · 6-7Thu 8 Oct 2026, 05:28 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEvan Zhu · 46 places

Evan Zhu

United States

American right-hander whose ATP career-high singles ranking was No. 271 on 6 March 2023. Public results show significant activity on hard and clay, but no authoritative preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #479
Peak ranking: #271 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

Kachmazov reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #525
Peak ranking: #161 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 21:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Kachmazov brings a 14-1 hard-court run and an unbeaten second-set record into a Wuning second-round meeting with Zhu, who is the higher-ranked player and has won 10 of his last 14 first sets.

Kachmazov is the likely winner, most probably in straight sets. His match price of 1.44, first set at 1.55 and second set at 1.55 all carry a potential-value tag; the 2.2 on a 2-0 win is close to fair.

Context

Kachmazov arrives with three Wuning matches already completed, while Zhu's stored current-event sample contains one match. The qualifying route gives Kachmazov additional time on the event courts but also adds match load. His main-draw win over Broom was decided in three sets, making the turnaround more demanding than the two qualifying wins.
- Kachmazov defeated Y. L. Chen and G. Lomakin in qualifying before defeating Charles Broom in the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 21:50 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore player recordwww.flashscore.com · 7 Oct 2026
If this second-round match reaches a second set, Zhu faces the most one-sided pattern in either player's recent record, with Kachmazov conceding little and closing sets quickly. The sample is 15 matches and much of it came against opponents ranked outside the top 500, so it describes recent form rather than a guaranteed repeat.
- Kachmazov won 15 of 15 second sets across 15 hard-court matches dated 6 September to 6 October 2026.
- He averaged 6.2 games won to 3.07 lost per second set in that window.
- Two of those 15 second sets went to a tiebreak.
That serve is the base of his recent results and the reason Zhu needs to make inroads on second serves in this second-round match. Kachmazov put only 52.6% of first serves in play over the same 15 matches, so there is a window when the delivery misses, though his 2.3 double faults per match show it has not cost him much.
- Kachmazov won 80.4% of first-serve points (401 of 499) across 15 hard-court matches dated 6 September to 6 October 2026.
- He averaged 8.7 aces and 2.3 double faults per match in the same 15-match window.
- He landed only 52.6% of first serves (499 of 949) in that period.
Their Shymkent qualifying match provides a specific prior matchup reference rather than a generic head-to-head total. Zhu won a close opening set before the second set became one-sided. The meeting was four years earlier and came in qualifying, so it gives historical context rather than a current-condition finding.
- Zhu won their only supplied previous meeting in Shymkent qualifying in 2022.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 21:50 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple head-to-head recorden.tennistemple.com · 7 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Kachmazov is the stronger current hard-court player by record, serve numbers and set share, and he has already adjusted to the event through three wins.
- Kachmazov is 14-1 in his last 15 hard-court matches, winning 29 of 33 sets.
- He has won 64% of games played in that window against Zhu's 9-5 record over 14 hard-court matches.
- He won 80.4% of first-serve points and averaged 8.7 aces per match on this surface.
- Confirmed context: he won two qualifying rounds and a main-draw match in Wuning this week.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance73%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's second-set dominance tends to produce 6-3 and 6-2 scorelines that stay under the line.
- Kachmazov's second sets average 9.27 total games.
- Zhu's second sets average 9.43 total games.
- Kachmazov wins 6.2 games against 3.07 in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's matches are short and one-sided, which pulls the game total toward the under side of 21.5.
- Kachmazov's hard-court matches average 20.7 total games.
- Zhu's average 22.4 total games over 14 matches.
- Kachmazov wins 64% of his games, the higher game share in the match.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets sit right around the line, with the favourite's 6-3 type sets landing just under it.
- Kachmazov's first sets average 9.67 total games.
- Zhu's first sets average 9.57 total games.
- Kachmazov has played 3 first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Kachmazov's second-set record is the strongest single number in the evidence and points to a clear edge if the match reaches a second set.
- Kachmazov has won all 15 of his second sets on hard courts in this window.
- He averages 6.2 games won to 3.07 lost in second sets.
- Zhu has lost 3 of 14 second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Kachmazov starts strongly and has the better serve, which is the main driver of first-set outcomes.
- Kachmazov has won the first set in 12 of his 15 hard-court matches.
- He averages 6 games won to 3.67 lost in first sets.
- Zhu has lost the first set in 4 of 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish most matches in two sets, and Kachmazov's dominance makes a short match the more likely outcome.
- Kachmazov's 15 matches average 2.2 sets, with 12 straight-set wins.
- Zhu's 14 matches average 2.36 sets.
- Three of Kachmazov's last 15 matches went the distance.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Kachmazov's matches are decided by clear margins rather than 7-6 sets, so a tiebreak-free match is the likelier outcome.
- Kachmazov has had a tiebreak in 5 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Zhu has had a tiebreak in 3 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Kachmazov's matches average 20.7 games and 2.2 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Evan Zhu

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#481Koki Matsuda

6-7(6) 6-4 6-2#170Alex Bolt

6-3 6-4#831Hanyi Liu

6-3 4-2 ret.#115Aleksandar Vukic

6-1 6-0—Zhiheng Xia

6-3 6-7(8) 6-3#228Henry Searle

6-2 6-4#448Alafia Ayeni

6-1 7-5#889Aleksi Lofman

6-1 4-6 7-5#94Michael Zheng

6-4 4-6 6-4#408Ozan Baris

6-3 6-2#796Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

7-6(8) 4-6 6-2#366Juan Pablo Ficovich

7-5 6-0#772Joshua Sheehy

6-3 6-2#899Arjun Kadhe

7-5 6-4#130Pedro Martinez Portero

Alibek Kachmazov

14W 1L

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#268Charles Broom 6-1 6-1#865Grigoriy Lomakin

6-1 6-2—Yan Lang Chen

6-3 6-4#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-3#674Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(4) 6-2#898Sheng Tang

6-3 6-3#595Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-2—Xirui Han

6-3 6-4#756Yunseong Chung

6-4 7-5#651Nikolai Barsukov

6-3 6-4#586Robin Catry

7-5 6-1#896Qian Sun

6-7(3) 6-1 6-1—Shaoyun Liu

7-6(1) 2-6 6-4#570Gabriel Ghetu

6-3 7-6(4)#435Louis Wessels

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EZEvan ZhuZhu

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Alibek KachmazovKachmazovAK

Alibek Kachmazov carries the stronger recent form — Evan Zhu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In64.6%+12.0pp52.6%

1st Serve Won67.6%+12.8pp80.4%

2nd Serve Won52.6%+5.8pp58.4%

Aces / Match3.3+5.48.7

Double Faults / Match3.10.8 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.8%—42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.1%+2.2pp45.9%

Break Pts Saved63.7%+9.5pp73.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.4%+3.4pp55.8%

Serve · 1–4

64.6%1st Serve In+12.0pp52.6%

67.6%1st Serve Won+12.8pp80.4%

52.6%2nd Serve Won+5.8pp58.4%

3.3Aces / Match+5.48.7

3.1Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.8%Return Pts Won—42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

48.1%Break Pts Converted+2.2pp45.9%

63.7%Break Pts Saved+9.5pp73.2%

Points · 0–1

52.4%Total Pts Won+3.4pp55.8%

Evan Zhu

Alibek Kachmazov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Evan Zhu

Alibek Kachmazov

Stat Battle