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Predictions graded

Alibek Kachmazov #822Russia2Grigoriy Lomakin #896Kazakhstan0

Sets 6-1 · 6-1Mon 5 Oct 2026, 02:39 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlibek Kachmazov · 74 places

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

Kachmazov reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #822
Peak ranking: #161 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Grigoriy Lomakin

Kazakhstan

Lomakin, 28, is the 198 cm right-hander in this matchup. His career-high singles ranking is No. 713, reached in July 2024.

Current ranking: #896
Peak ranking: #713 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Kachmazov arrives at this Wuning qualifier with six straight-set wins on hard and a 12-3 run across 15 tracked matches; Lomakin is 7-7 with no serve or return data in the feed.

Kachmazov is the likely winner, probably in two sets, but his 1.03 match price and 1.12 first-set price leave no room. Two Lomakin quotes are worth a look: 9 to win the match, 5.25 to take the opening set.

Context

Kachmazov's recent hard-court matches have leaned short: 11 of 15 finished 2-0 and his matches average 2.2 sets.
The two-set finish is the most common shape of his recent hard-court matches, which matters in a best-of-three qualifier where dropping the opening set leaves little room. Lomakin has gone to a third set in six of his 13 tracked matches, so a straight-sets result is far from automatic.
- Hard-court setEvidence, 15 completed matches from 7 Aug to 4 Oct 2026: eleven 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, two 1-2 losses and one 0-2 loss.
- Second-set record 14-1 in that sample; sets won 26 of 33 (78.8%); average 2.2 sets per match.
- First-set record 11-4 with four tiebreaks in the sample; average 21.3 total games per match.
Lomakin has started matches on roughly even terms, taking seven of 13 first sets, none of which ran past 10 games.
Opening sets that settle inside ten games keep a lower-ranked player in touch early, and Lomakin has done that across 13 tracked matches. Kachmazov has won 11 of his 15 opening sets, so the first set is a real contest rather than a formality.
- Hard-court setEvidence, 13 completed matches from 1 Jul to 4 Oct 2026, one retirement excluded: first-set record 7-6 with zero tiebreaks and 8.54 games on average.
- Second-set record 7-6 with three tiebreaks; matches average 23.3 total games and 2.46 sets.
- Scorelines in the sample: four 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins, three 1-2 losses and three 0-2 losses.
Kachmazov's serving numbers sit behind a 12-3 record in this window, with the strength in points won rather than first serves landed.
Efficient service points and a 73.5% break-point save rate underpin that 12-3 run, and the modest 50.9% first-serve rate is offset by winning 56.4% of second-serve points. Lomakin has no serve or return figures in the feed, so those phases cannot be compared directly.
- 15 tracked hard-court matches, 7 Aug to 4 Oct 2026: first-serve points won 410 of 509 (80.6%); first serves in 509 of 1000 (50.9%).
- Break points saved 36 of 49 (73.5%); second-serve points won 277 of 491 (56.4%); 9.2 aces per match.
- Record of 12 wins and 3 losses in the sample; average match duration 96.8 minutes.
Lomakin's most recent match against a top-300 player shows he can take a set at that level even in a three-set loss.
It is the clearest item in the feed showing Lomakin can hold his level for a set against better-ranked opposition, which is why his first-set price reads shorter than his ranking. One match is a thin basis, and he lost the next two sets by the same 3-6 scoreline.
- 15 Sep 2026, hard court: lost 6-4 3-6 3-6 to Matthew Dellavedova, ranked 278 at the time, with Lomakin ranked 857.
- Lomakin won 12 games to Dellavedova's 16 in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Alibek Kachmazov 2-0

1.30fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 76.9%

−22.9ppshort

Kachmazov has repeatedly won in straight sets on hard courts and is the stronger player in this matchup.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov has the better ranking, a far stronger recent hard-court record and clear serve numbers, while Lomakin has won only half his recent matches.
- Kachmazov is 12-3 on hard in the last 15 tracked matches and wins 60.5% of games
- He wins 80.6% of first-serve points and saved 73.5% of break points
- He has won his last six matches all in straight sets
- Lomakin is 7-7 on hard, with no serve or return metrics available in the feed
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance74%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov has been winning in straight sets with few games dropped, so a short match is the more likely shape.
- Kachmazov's 15 hard matches average 21.3 total games
- Kachmazov won 2-0 in 11 of his 15 tracked matches
- Kachmazov's last six wins produced 15, 19, 16, 21, 18 and 16 total games
- Lomakin's setEvidence matches average 23.3 total games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lomakin's first sets regularly finish 6-3 or shorter, and Kachmazov has been closing opening sets quickly.
- Lomakin's first sets average 8.5 total games
- None of Lomakin's 13 first sets went to a tiebreak
- Kachmazov's recent opening sets included 6-1, 6-3 and 6-2 scorelines
- Kachmazov's first sets average 10.0 total games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets sit around the line, and Lomakin's recent second sets have been close.
- Kachmazov's second sets average 9.6 total games
- Lomakin's second sets average 9.85 total games with 3 tiebreaks
- Kachmazov lost only 1 of 15 second sets
- Lomakin's latest second set finished 7-6
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's second-set record on hard courts is very strong, while Lomakin has been even in second sets.
- Kachmazov won the second set in 14 of 15 hard matches
- He averages 6.13 games won and 3.47 lost in set two
- Lomakin lost the second set in 6 of 13 setEvidence matches
- Lomakin averages 4.85 games won and 5.00 lost in set two
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov has started strongly on hard courts, winning the opening set in most of his recent matches.
- Kachmazov won the first set in 11 of 15 hard matches
- Kachmazov averages 5.93 games won and 4.07 lost in set one
- Lomakin lost the first set in 6 of 13 setEvidence matches
- Kachmazov's last six matches all opened with a set win
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov has repeatedly closed matches in two sets and is the stronger player on recent form.
- Kachmazov's 15 matches average 2.2 sets
- Kachmazov recorded a 2-0 scoreline in 11 of 15 tracked matches
- Kachmazov won each of his last six matches in straight sets
- Lomakin's 13 setEvidence matches average 2.46 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Kachmazov has repeatedly won in straight sets on hard courts and is the stronger player in this matchup.
- Kachmazov's 15 hard matches produced 11 scorelines of 2-0
- He won each of his last six matches 2-0
- Lomakin lost 3 of 13 setEvidence matches 0-2
- Kachmazov wins 60.5% of games on this surface
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAlibek Kachmazov 2-0Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent matches have been settled without a tiebreak, particularly Lomakin's opening sets.
- 10 of Kachmazov's 15 hard matches had no tiebreak
- 8 of Lomakin's 13 setEvidence matches had no tiebreak
- Lomakin's first sets produced 0 tiebreaks in 13 matches
- Kachmazov won 11 of 15 matches 2-0
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance59%

Previous match context available

Alibek Kachmazov

12W 3L

6-1 6-2—Yan Lang Chen

6-3 6-4#900Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-3#715Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(4) 6-2#898Sheng Tang

6-3 6-3#585Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-2—Xirui Han

6-3 6-4#753Yunseong Chung

6-4 7-5#650Nikolai Barsukov

6-3 6-4#577Robin Catry

7-5 6-1#891Qian Sun

6-7(3) 6-1 6-1—Shaoyun Liu

7-6(1) 2-6 6-4#563Gabriel Ghetu

6-3 7-6(4)#430Louis Wessels

7-6(3) 6-7(6) 6-2#479Colin Sinclair

6-3 7-5—Maan Kesarwani

Grigoriy Lomakin

7W 8L

6-4 7-6(3)#887Ajeet Rai

4-6 6-3 6-3#278Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 6-4#897Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-0 3-6 6-3#679Yurii Dzhavakian

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#674Filip Peliwo

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#743Dong Ju Kim

6-0 6-1—Thanh-Trung Hoang

6-1 6-3#500Hiroki Moriya

6-2 7-6(1)—Chen Hui Ho

6-7(3) 6-1 10-6—Tin Chen

6-3 6-1#450Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

7-5 7-5—Viktor Markov

3-2 ret.#810Yuta Tomida

6-3 2-6 6-4#798Tianhui Zhang

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#861Martin Borisiouk

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlibek KachmazovKachmazov

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Grigoriy LomakinLomakinGL

Alibek Kachmazov carries the stronger recent form — Grigoriy Lomakin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1550.9%+17.4pp68.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1580.6%+11.5pp69.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1556.4%+12.4pp44.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/159.2+5.24.0

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.7—2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1539.7%+1.6pp38.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1541.1%+1.6pp39.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1573.5%+10.4pp63.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1554.2%+4.4pp49.8%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

50.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+17.4pp68.3%

80.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+11.5pp69.1%

56.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+12.4pp44.0%

9.2Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+5.24.0

2.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/15—2.7

Return · 1–0

39.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+1.6pp38.1%

Pressure · 2–0

41.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+1.6pp39.5%

73.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+10.4pp63.1%

Points · 1–0

54.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+4.4pp49.8%