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Predictions graded

Alibek Kachmazov #525Russia2Charles Broom #268United Kingdom1

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 6-4Tue 6 Oct 2026, 09:31 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCharles Broom · 257 places

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

Kachmazov reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #525
Peak ranking: #161 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Charles Broom

United Kingdom

Limited reliable public profile information found. Structured match data lists Broom at No. 289.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 02:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth seed Charles Broom meets qualifier Alibek Kachmazov, ranked 525, in the Wuning first round, with Broom the likelier winner.

Kachmazov's 13-2 hard-court run and perfect second-set record are the main counterweight, though his recent opponents rank far lower. Two prices carry a potential edge: Broom to win at 1.85 and Broom 2-0 at 3. Broom's first set at 1.85 shows no clear advantage, and Kachmazov's second set at 1.85 is one to leave.

Context

Kachmazov arrives as the 525-ranked qualifier, and his second-set record is the standout line in his recent hard-court form.
A 15-from-15 second-set run is a strong pattern inside a small sample, and it came alongside 13 wins in 15 matches overall. The same window lists his opponents at 595 or lower, so it says more about how he has handled that level than about facing the fourth seed. Charles Broom won 13 of his own 15 second sets in his hard-court sample, which is why that set looks closer than Kachmazov's run alone suggests.
- Kachmazov won all 15 second sets in his 15 hard-court matches tracked from 9 August to 5 October 2026.
- His second sets averaged 9.27 total games in that sample.
- He won 13 of the 15 matches in the same window.
Broom, the fourth seed and world No. 268, came into Wuning with a hard-court record built on two-set results.
Eleven of his twelve wins were completed in straight sets, and his three defeats split between one two-set loss and two three-set losses. That shape points to short matches when his game is working, with the caveat that it covers 15 matches ending on 1 September. Alibek Kachmazov's 15-match window produced twelve 2-0 results in his favour, so both players have usually finished quickly.
- Broom's 15 hard-court matches tracked from 4 August to 1 September 2026 finished 2-0 in his favour eleven times, 2-1 once, 1-2 twice and 0-2 once.
- Twelve of the 15 matches ended in two sets.
- He won 12 of the 15 matches overall.
Kachmazov has already completed two matches in Wuning before this fixture, including qualifying wins over Chen and Lomakin. That route gives relevant tournament-specific context to his main-draw entry. Both victories came in qualifying, so they do not by themselves establish how he compares with the fourth seed.
- Kachmazov won two straight-set qualifying matches to reach the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 02:42 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Wuning Challenger IIIen.wikipedia.org · 5 Oct 2026Alibek Kachmazov player recordwww.flashscore.com · 5 Oct 2026
The fourth seed has direct draw significance for Broom's place in this event. It distinguishes his main-draw entry from Kachmazov's qualifying route. The ranking reference was set on 28 September and is a seeding snapshot rather than a current assessment for this match.
- Broom occupies the fourth seeding position in the singles draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 02:42 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Wuning Challenger IIIen.wikipedia.org · 5 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Broom is higher ranked and more consistent on first serve, and his recent wins came against stronger opponents.
- Broom is ranked 268, while Kachmazov is ranked 525.
- Broom is the fourth seed in the main draw.
- Broom is 12-3 in his last 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCharles BroomEstimated chance57%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Their first sets average just under 10 games, so going over 9.5 is slightly more likely.
- Kachmazov’s set-1 total games average is 9.87.
- Broom’s set-1 total games average is 9.8.
- Both players often play close opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The line sits right at their combined average, and a competitive first-round match could push total games over.
- Kachmazov’s average total games on hard is 20.8.
- Broom’s average total games on hard is 20.4.
- Their combined set-1 average total games is about 9.8.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have averaged below 9.5 total games for both.
- Kachmazov’s set-2 total games average is 9.27.
- Broom’s set-2 total games average is 9.2.
- Both players have strong second-set records.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes dominate their recent hard-court records.
- Kachmazov won 12 of 15 hard matches in straight sets.
- Broom won 11 of 15 hard matches in straight sets.
- Their combined three-set rate is 20%.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Broom’s higher ranking and strong first-set record make him slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Broom won the first set in 12 of 15 hard matches.
- Broom is ranked 268 versus Kachmazov’s 525.
- Broom is the fourth seed.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCharles BroomEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Kachmazov has an exceptional second-set record and strong overall point-winning numbers.
- Kachmazov won all 15 second sets in his hard-court sample.
- He has won 55.3% of total points.
- He won 13 of 15 hard matches overall.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their matches do not feature a tiebreak.
- Kachmazov had tiebreaks in 5 of 15 hard matches.
- Broom had a tiebreak in 1 of 15 hard matches.
- Most of their completed matches had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double-fault rates, pointing to under 4.5.
- Kachmazov averages 2.3 double faults per match.
- Broom averages 1.7 double faults per match.
- Combined average double faults per match is 4.0.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined average is close to the line, so over is marginally more likely.
- Kachmazov averages 8.9 aces per match.
- Broom averages 3.5 aces per match.
- Their combined average is 12.4 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Alibek Kachmazov

13W 2L

6-1 6-1#865Grigoriy Lomakin

6-1 6-2—Yan Lang Chen

6-3 6-4#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-3#674Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(4) 6-2#898Sheng Tang

6-3 6-3#595Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-2—Xirui Han

6-3 6-4#756Yunseong Chung

6-4 7-5#651Nikolai Barsukov

6-3 6-4#586Robin Catry

7-5 6-1#896Qian Sun

6-7(3) 6-1 6-1—Shaoyun Liu

7-6(1) 2-6 6-4#570Gabriel Ghetu

6-3 7-6(4)#435Louis Wessels

7-6(3) 6-7(6) 6-2#485Colin Sinclair

Charles Broom

12W 3L

6-2 6-7(5) 6-1#373Mathys Erhard

6-2 6-2—Hongjin Qi

7-5 6-3#374George Loffhagen

6-4 5-7 6-1#307Oliver Tarvet

6-4 6-2#248Max Basing

6-4 6-1#715Patrick Brady

6-4 6-1#545Leonardo Rossi

6-4 5-7 6-1#307Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-3#707Alex Rybakov

6-1 6-1#661Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-2#307Oliver Tarvet

6-1 7-5#394Lui Maxted

6-4 6-0—Oscar Brown

7-5 6-4#735Nicolas Jadoun

7-5 6-4—Nicholas Godsick

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlibek KachmazovKachmazov

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Charles BroomBroomCB

Alibek Kachmazov carries the stronger recent form — Charles Broom's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In51.1%+13.1pp64.2%

1st Serve Won80.6%+9.3pp71.3%

2nd Serve Won58.0%+2.3pp55.7%

Aces / Match8.9+5.43.5

Double Faults / Match2.30.6 fewer1.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.5%—41.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted44.1%+4.9pp49.0%

Break Pts Saved75.0%—75.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.3%+1.8pp53.5%

Serve · 3–2

51.1%1st Serve In+13.1pp64.2%

80.6%1st Serve Won+9.3pp71.3%

58.0%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp55.7%

8.9Aces / Match+5.43.5

2.3Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer1.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.5%Return Pts Won—41.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

44.1%Break Pts Converted+4.9pp49.0%

75.0%Break Pts Saved—75.3%

Points · 1–0

55.3%Total Pts Won+1.8pp53.5%

Alibek Kachmazov

Charles Broom

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Charles Broom

Charles Broom

Charles Broom 2-0

Alibek Kachmazov

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Alibek Kachmazov

Charles Broom

Stat Battle