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Predictions graded

Marina Bassols Ribera #134Spain0Kamilla Rakhimova #83Uzbekistan2

Sets 4-6 · 6-7Thu 1 Oct 2026, 07:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKamilla Rakhimova · 51 places

Marina Bassols Ribera

Spain

Spanish right-hander born 13 December 1999. Reached a career-high No. 105 in February 2024; the WTA profile lists hard court as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #134
Peak ranking: #105 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 165 cm

Kamilla Rakhimova

Uzbekistan

ITF lists hard as her preferred surface. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 60; no current public source in the search set established an active injury or return-from-absence issue.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #60
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 01:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Rakhimova is the higher-ranked player and the more likely winner, but she arrives without a win since 21 September while Bassols Ribera has two straight-set qualifying wins on these courts.

Rakhimova's 1.3 to win asks far more than a 6-6 hard-court run supports. The prices that do offer something are both on Bassols Ribera: 3.5 to win the match and 2.75 to take the opening set.

Context

Bassols Ribera had to win two qualifying matches to reach the main draw, both in straight sets on 28 and 29 September. That route supplies competitive rhythm and familiarity with the Beijing courts, but it also leaves her carrying two extra matches and a shorter recovery window than an opponent who entered the main draw directly. The wins were comfortable rather than draining, so the physical cost is modest, but the added workload remains the one clear asymmetry in how the two players arrive.
- Bassols Ribera was the fourth seed in the Beijing qualifying draw, listed at No. 129.
- She beat Olivia Nicholls 6-1 6-1 in the qualifying first round .
- She beat Xiaodi You 6-4 6-4 in the qualifying second round on 29 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Rakhimova's last Grand Slam run carried her to the third round before a 6-3 6-4 loss to world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka, and her only match since was a 6-3 6-0 defeat to Katie Volynets in Seoul, a match in which she held serve once and hit eight double faults. She is the higher-ranked player here at No. 76, and the US Open fortnight shows she can hold main-draw tour level on hard courts. The three-week gap without a win, and the trouble on serve in Seoul, are the counterweight, so her form picture is genuinely mixed rather than clearly strong or weak.
- Rakhimova lost 6-3 6-4 to Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open third round in September 2026.
- She lost 6-3 6-0 to Katie Volynets in the Seoul round of 16 .
- She held serve once in the Seoul defeat and struck eight double faults.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Rakhimova has done her best work in the opening set of her recent hard-court matches, with second sets close to even.
With a 7-5 first-set record and three tiebreaks across twelve matches, the opener looks like her strongest phase, while 5-7 in second sets leaves the door open if Bassols Ribera can keep the first set close. This is a single 12-match stretch with one retirement excluded, so it is a lean rather than a settled pattern.
- Rakhimova's hard-court sample covers 12 completed matches from 25 July to 23 September 2026, with one retirement excluded.
- First sets: 7 wins, 5 losses, averaging 5.2 games won and 4.9 lost, with three tiebreaks.
- Second sets: 5 wins, 7 losses, averaging 4.3 games won and 4.4 lost.
- Four of the twelve matches featured a tiebreak.
Bassols Ribera has been involved in a near-even mix of two-set and three-set matches on hard courts.
Four of seven matches ended in straight sets and three reached a third, so a long first round is as plausible as a quick one. The sample is only seven matches and one tiebreak across it means her sets have generally been settled without the extra points a tiebreak brings.
- Bassols Ribera's hard-court sample covers 7 completed matches from 28 July to 29 September 2026.
- Scorelines: two 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, two 0-2 losses and two 1-2 losses.
- Total games averaged 21.7 per match and sets averaged 2.43.
- One of the seven matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

−9.0ppshort

Straight-set results account for the clear majority of both players' recent hard-court matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova is the higher-ranked player with the better first-set and overall hard-court record, including recent wins over Krejcikova and Kudermetova at this level.
- Ranked No. 76 against No. 131
- 6-6 in a 12-match hard-court sample, winning four of six victories 2-0
- First sets on hard: 7-5, averaging 5.2 games to 4.9
- Bassols Ribera is 3-4 on hard with a 2-5 first-set record
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in both players' hard-court samples finish below nine and a half games on average.
- Bassols Ribera second sets average 9.1 total games on hard
- Rakhimova second sets average 8.8 total games on hard
- Only one second-set tiebreak between them in recent hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches have averaged just above the line, with Rakhimova's first sets often running long.
- Bassols Ribera hard-court average: 21.7 total games per match
- Rakhimova hard-court average: 22.2 total games per match
- Rakhimova had a tiebreak in 4 of 12 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's first sets regularly reach 6-4 or tiebreak territory, pulling the combined set-one total near the line.
- Rakhimova first sets average 10.1 total games on hard
- Bassols Ribera first sets average 8.6 total games on hard
- Three of Rakhimova's twelve first sets went to a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Straight-set results account for the clear majority of both players' recent hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova: eight of twelve hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Bassols Ribera: four of seven hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Both players' three-set rates sit in the mid-30s percent range
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova has started sets far better than Bassols Ribera, who has lost five of her seven hard-court openers.
- Rakhimova first sets on hard: 7-5, 5.2 games to 4.9
- Bassols Ribera first sets on hard: 2-5, 3.6 games to 5.0
- Rakhimova has three first-set tiebreaks in twelve hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova holds a small edge from ranking and overall level, though second-set evidence is close to even.
- Rakhimova second sets on hard: 5-7
- Bassols Ribera second sets on hard: 5-2
- Bassols Ribera averages 5.1 games won in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches were decided without a tiebreak.
- Only 5 of the 19 combined hard-court matches in these samples had a tiebreak
- Bassols Ribera had one tiebreak in seven hard-court matches
- Neither player has a high ace rate in the available serve data
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Prediction history

Kamilla Rakhimova: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Kamilla Rakhimova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Kamilla Rakhimova5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·WTA Washington

#78Kamilla Rakhimova0-2#475Heather Watson

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·62%

Missed

25 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#78Kamilla Rakhimova0-2#475Heather Watson

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

62%probability

Heather Watson won

Missed

20 Jun·WTA Eastbourne

#65Kamilla Rakhimova1-2#89Oksana Selekhmeteva

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·62%

Missed

20 Jun 2026

WTA Eastbourne

#65Kamilla Rakhimova1-2#89Oksana Selekhmeteva

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

62%probability

Oksana Selekhmeteva won

Missed

12 Jun·WTA London

#160Harriet Dart1-2#78Kamilla Rakhimova

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·58%

Matched

12 Jun 2026

WTA London

#160Harriet Dart1-2#78Kamilla Rakhimova

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

58%probability

Kamilla Rakhimova won

Matched

5 May·WTA Rome

#59Antonia Ruzic2-1#76Kamilla Rakhimova

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·55%

Missed

5 May 2026

WTA Rome

#59Antonia Ruzic2-1#76Kamilla Rakhimova

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

55%probability

Antonia Ruzic won

Missed

13 Apr·Rouen

#72Kamilla Rakhimova2-0#140Elvina Kalieva

BetBugsKamilla Rakhimova to win·65%

Matched

13 Apr 2026

Rouen

#72Kamilla Rakhimova2-0#140Elvina Kalieva

Kamilla Rakhimova to win

65%probability

Kamilla Rakhimova won

Matched

Previous match context available

Marina Bassols Ribera

7W 8L

6-4 6-4#203Xiaodi You

6-1 6-1#1027Olivia Nicholls

6-3 3-6 6-4#145Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-4 6-2#280Eva Bennemann

6-2 6-1#145Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-3 6-2#173Martyna Kubka

4-6 7-6(0) 6-3#187Darya Astakhova

6-4 6-3#95Sinja Kraus

6-0 2-6 6-3#176Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

6-2 3-6 6-4#88Darja Vidmanova

3-6 6-4 6-1#95Sinja Kraus

6-2 6-1#222Maria Lourdes Carle

0-6 6-1 6-1#258Arantxa Rus

6-2 6-1#260Anna-Lena Friedsam

6-3 6-2#59Paula Badosa Gibert

Kamilla Rakhimova

8W 7L

6-3 6-0#74Katie Volynets 7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#104Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-0#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

7-6(4) 6-2#43Barbora Krejcikova

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#68Maria Timofeeva

6-4 4-6 6-2#109Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 5-7 6-1#33Maria Sakkari

6-2 6-2#41Kimberly Birrell

6-4 6-0#3Jessica Pegula

6-7(1) 6-0 5-2 ret.#55Katerina Siniakova

6-4 6-1#599Venus Williams

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#394Heather Watson

6-3 0-6 7-6(7)#33Maria Sakkari

4-6 6-4 7-5#50Anhelina Kalinina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMarina Bassols RiberaRibera

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimovaKR

Kamilla Rakhimova carries the stronger recent form — Marina Bassols Ribera's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In63.8%+9.4pp54.4%

1st Serve Won60.5%+2.4pp62.9%

2nd Serve Won42.4%+2.6pp45.0%

Aces / Match0.7+1.32.0

Double Faults / Match5.30.8 fewer6.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won46.1%—45.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.7%+7.0pp52.7%

Break Pts Saved59.1%+4.5pp54.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.0%—50.2%

Serve · 2–3

63.8%1st Serve In+9.4pp54.4%

60.5%1st Serve Won+2.4pp62.9%

42.4%2nd Serve Won+2.6pp45.0%

0.7Aces / Match+1.32.0

5.3Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer6.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

46.1%Return Pts Won—45.6%

Pressure · 1–1

45.7%Break Pts Converted+7.0pp52.7%

59.1%Break Pts Saved+4.5pp54.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.0%Total Pts Won—50.2%

Marina Bassols Ribera

Kamilla Rakhimova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Marina Bassols Ribera

Marina Bassols Ribera

Under 2.5

Kamilla Rakhimova 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Marina Bassols Ribera

Kamilla Rakhimova

Stat Battle