Antonia Ruzic #5922 – 1Kamilla Rakhimova #76Uzbekistan1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

The combination of H2H history, recent clay match lengths, and both players' moderate hold rates on clay points to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Both H2H matches went over 21.5 games (29 and 30 games)
• Ruzic's last 4 clay matches averaged 21.8 games; Rakhimova's last 3 clay matches averaged 22.3 games
• Both players have break-point save rates around 53-54%, indicating frequent service breaks on clay
• Rakhimova's 3-set win rate is 53% career, and Ruzic's deciding-set win rate is 60%, suggesting extended matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Rakhimova is unlikely to lose by a wide margin given her H2H success and Ruzic's recent clay struggles, making +1.5 games a solid handicap.

• Rakhimova won both H2H matches, covering +1.5 games easily
• Ruzic's last 4 clay losses were by margins of 2, 7, 8, and 2 games; only one blowout
• Rakhimova's last 3 clay losses were by 5, 6, and 5 games, but she kept matches competitive

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00

The read

Recent first-set data and H2H trends suggest a competitive opening set with a good chance of exceeding 9.5 games.

• First sets in H2H were 7-5 and 6-4, both over 9.5 games
• Ruzic's last 5 clay first sets: 6-1, 6-3, 6-0, 6-4, 7-5 (average 9.4 games, but 3 of 5 over 9.5)
• Rakhimova's last 5 clay first sets: 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3, 6-7 (average 9.2 games, 3 of 5 over 9.5)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

With a history of three-set battles and both players showing a tendency for extended matches on clay, over 2.5 sets is a reasonable expectation.

• Both H2H matches went to three sets
• Ruzic's last 5 clay matches: 3 three-setters, 2 two-setters
• Rakhimova's last 5 clay matches: 3 three-setters, 2 two-setters
• Ruzic's deciding-set win rate is 60%, Rakhimova's is 53%, indicating neither dominates in final sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' career double fault rates and the H2H average, the match could see over 7.5 double faults, though confidence is low due to match variability.

• Rakhimova averages 5.2 double faults per match career, Ruzic 4.3
• In H2H, combined double faults were 17 in 2 matches (8.5 per match)
• On clay, both players' double fault rates may increase due to longer rallies and pressure on second serves