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Kamilla Rakhimova - Elvina Kalieva

RouenFinished

Kamilla Rakhimova

#72

Elvina Kalieva

#140

Monday, April 13, 2026 at 14:14

Finished Snapshot

FT2-0
FinishedSettled

Sets

6-3 · 7-6

Predictions

5W · 2L · 0P

Edges

1W · 0L · 0P

Quick Take

Rakhimova (#72) is significantly favored over qualifier Kalieva (#140) on ranking and clay-court experience, but Kalieva's back-to-back qualifying matches create fatigue. Best edge: Total Games Over 20.5 at 62% confidence vs. 36.4% market pricing.

Total GamesOver 20.562%+25.6pts

Context Signals

Betting Edges

Predictions

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Kamilla Rakhimova:Implied 64.5% (1/1.55) vs predictor estimate 65% yields negligible edge (~0.5pts) within noise of MEDIUM confidence; no actionable value.
Set 1 Winner Kamilla Rakhimova:Market appears fairly priced (62.5% implied vs 58% predicted) with only a 3-4pt gap, insufficient given MEDIUM confidence and no H2H data to validate the statistical conversion-rate advantage.
Set Betting Rakhimova 2-0 / 2-1:Kalieva's proven comeback pattern (lost first set, won match in 3 of last 5) undermines straight-set value; no H2H data and conflicting form signals make set betting unreliable.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Rakhimova enters this first-round matchup as a clear favorite on ranking and experience. Ranked #72 with a career 56.8% win rate over 458 matches, she holds a substantial edge over Kalieva (#140, 53.8% win rate across 364 matches). However, Rakhimova's recent form is mixed—she reached the Miami hard-court draw as a lucky loser and knocked out a respectable opponent before falling to Kostyuk in the second round. Her clay-court readiness heading into Rouen is uncertain, as her most recent matches were on hard courts and there's no verified record of her 2026 clay play prior to this tournament.

Recent Form

Kamilla Rakhimova

6W 4L
L6-2 6-4#27 Marta KostyukMar 20, 2026
W6-1 6-3#78 Solana SierraMar 19, 2026
L6-3 6-4#56 Talia GibsonMar 17, 2026
W6-7(1) 7-5 6-0#129 Leolia JeanjeanMar 16, 2026
L6-2 1-6 6-2#80 Kimberly BirrellMar 11, 2026
W5-7 6-1 6-4#118 Suzan LamensMar 9, 2026
L6-3 7-6(5)#3 Cori GauffMar 6, 2026
W6-7(6) 6-0 6-1#130 Bianca Vanessa AndreescuMar 4, 2026
W4-6 5-4 ret.#153 Maria TimofeevaMar 3, 2026
W6-2 6-2#186 Maria Lourdes CarleMar 1, 2026

Elvina Kalieva

6W 4L
W6-4 6-2#237 Julie BelgraverApr 12, 2026
W5-7 6-2 6-0#443 Astrid Lew Yan FoonApr 11, 2026
L6-4 6-1#205 Marina Bassols RiberaApr 10, 2026
W6-2 7-5#178 Whitney OsuigweApr 9, 2026
W4-6 6-4 6-4#417 Robin MontgomeryApr 7, 2026
L4-6 6-3 6-3#48 Mccartney KesslerMar 30, 2026
L6-1 6-1#233 Akasha UrhoboMar 29, 2026
W6-2 6-0#351 Madison BrengleMar 28, 2026
L6-2 6-0#20 Elise MertensMar 20, 2026
W6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(5)#103 Dalma GalfiMar 19, 2026
Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete
StatsAvailable

Apr 12, 19:40

IntelAvailable

Apr 13, 06:01

OddsAvailable

Apr 13, 15:33

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 13, 06:01

Analysis updated: Apr 13, 06:08