Harriet Dart #160United Kingdom11 – 2Kamilla Rakhimova #78Uzbekistan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Rakhimova's significant ranking edge and comparable recent form on grass give her a slight favorite status, despite Dart's home-court advantage.

• Ranking advantage: Rakhimova #78 vs Dart #160
• Rakhimova 2026 grass: 1-1, Dart 2026 grass: 1-1
• Dart last 5: 2-3, Rakhimova last 5: 2-3
• H2H: Dart won only meeting 6-4 2-6 6-0 on hard in 2024

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Both players' recent matches frequently exceed 21.5 total games, and their similar break-point stats suggest extended rallies and potential three-setter.

• Dart last 5 Bo3 matches: avg 22.6 games, 4/5 over 21.5
• Rakhimova last 5 Bo3 matches: avg 20.4 games, 3/5 over 21.5
• H2H match had 24 games
• Both players have break-point conversion rates near 48%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Both players tend to start matches with competitive opening sets, with a majority of recent set1 totals exceeding 9.5 games.

• Dart last 5 set1 games: 10, 9, 7, 12, 12 (avg 10.0)
• Rakhimova last 5 set1 games: 10, 8, 8, 9, 10 (avg 9.0)
• Combined set1 over 9.5 in 7 of last 10 matches for both

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Dart's high frequency of three-set matches and the competitive nature of both players' recent form make a deciding set likely.

• Dart last 15: 9 three-setters (60%)
• Rakhimova last 15: 7 three-setters (47%)
• H2H went three sets
• Both have deciding-set win rates around 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have elevated double-fault rates, and grass conditions often increase DF counts, making over 7.5 probable.

• Dart double-fault rate: 5.3%, Rakhimova: 5.2%
• Dart career DFs: 1963 in 703 matches (~2.8 per match), Rakhimova: 1719 in 467 (~3.7 per match)
• Grass can lead to more double faults due to lower bounce

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

On grass, both players' modest ace rates could combine to exceed 5.5 total aces, though it's a borderline call.

• Dart ace rate: 2.7%, Rakhimova: 2.3%
• Dart career aces: 1007 in 703 matches (~1.43 per match), Rakhimova: 766 in 467 (~1.64 per match)
• Grass surface typically increases ace counts slightly