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Predictions graded

Kamilla Rakhimova #83Uzbekistan0Katie Volynets #91United States2

Sets 3-6 · 0-6Wed 23 Sept 2026, 03:17 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions9–190%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKamilla Rakhimova · 8 places

Kamilla Rakhimova

Uzbekistan

ITF lists hard as her preferred surface. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 60; no current public source in the search set established an active injury or return-from-absence issue.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #60
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Katie Volynets

United States

Volynets, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup and lists hard courts as her preferred surface. Her career-high singles ranking is No. 56, reached in July 2024.

Current ranking: #91
Peak ranking: #56 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players one ranking place apart meet in Seoul, and their recent hard-court work is not level: Volynets has won 8 of her 11 matches in this window and lost only three games in her opener.

She is the likelier winner, but 1.45 on the match and 1.45 on a straight-sets finish ask more than that form justifies. The only price that offers something is Rakhimova to win 2-1 at 5.25.

Context

Rakhimova's opening round lasted three sets, 7-6(4) 4-6 7-5, while Volynets' was decided in straight sets at 6-3 6-0, and Rakhimova is also entered in the doubles draw on the same day as this tie. That combination is the clearest physical difference between two players separated by one ranking place, and it matters because it is the one part of the fixture where preparation is not equal. The limitation is that neither a set count nor a doubles entry measures fatigue directly, and the doubles assignment comes after this match, so it is a load risk rather than something already affecting her preparation.
- Rakhimova beat Polina Kudermetova 7-6(4) 4-6 7-5
- Volynets beat Elvina Kalieva 6-3 6-0
- Rakhimova is listed with Alina Charaeva in the doubles draw
- A doubles match involving Rakhimova appears on the same day's schedule
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Rakhimova's most recent completed event was a US Open run to the third round, where she beat former Grand Slam champion Barbora Krejcikova and then lost to world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka 6-3 6-4 . It matters here because it is the strongest recent evidence of her level against higher-ranked opposition, and it came in the same hard-court block as this Seoul event. The limit is that the run ended nearly three weeks earlier, and Krejcikova arrived in New York on a four-match losing run, so the win is a weaker form marker than the scoreline alone suggests.
- Rakhimova beat Barbora Krejcikova in the US Open first round on 30 August 2026
- Aryna Sabalenka beat Rakhimova 6-3 6-4 in the third round
- Krejcikova had lost four matches in a row going into that first round
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Rakhimova is 7-4 in first sets and 5-6 in second sets across the same 11 hard-court matches.
Four of 11 hard-court matches reaching a third set shows that Rakhimova's matches in this window tend to stay close rather than swing quickly, which keeps a deciding set in play against a higher-form opponent. Her first sets have been the stronger half of that pattern, with three tiebreaks and an average of 10.2 games, while her 5-6 second-set record is the part that has let matches slip. Two of the four three-set matches ended in her favour.
- Rakhimova's 11 tracked hard-court matches run from 25 July to 21 September 2026
- Four of the 11 went to a deciding set (two 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses)
- Her average total is 22.8 games per hard-court match
- Set records in the same sample: 7-4 in first sets with three tiebreaks, 5-6 in second sets
Volynets' most common hard-court result in this window is a 2-0 win, which has happened seven times in 11 matches.
A 9-2 record in second sets on hard courts is why Volynets reads as the likelier player to close this out in straight sets, and seven of her 11 matches in the sample did finish 2-0. The sample is small and largely untested in tight second sets, though: an average of 8.7 games and only two tiebreaks across those 11 second sets, so the record leans on lopsided sets rather than narrow ones.
- Volynets' 11 tracked hard-court matches run from 27 July to 21 September 2026
- She has won 9 of 11 second sets and lost 2 in that sample
- Seven of the 11 matches finished 2-0 in her favour
- Average second-set total is 8.7 games, with two second-set tiebreaks

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Katie Volynets

1.45fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69%

−6.0ppshort

Volynets has stronger current hard-court form, better set-by-set consistency, and arrives fresher after a straight-sets opener.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Katie Volynets

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Volynets has been dominant in second sets on hard courts, and her straight-set wins often come with a strong second set.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Katie Volynets

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

−4.5ppshort

Volynets is the more reliable first-set player in this window, with a better hard-court first-set record.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

−9.0ppshort

Volynets has been winning in straight sets regularly, and a 2-0 result is the most common outcome in her hard-court evidence.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Volynets has stronger current hard-court form, better set-by-set consistency, and arrives fresher after a straight-sets opener.
- Volynets is 8-3 on hard courts in this window and has won 58.2% of hard-court games.
- She holds a 9-2 record in second sets and an 8-3 record in first sets on hard courts.
- She won her Seoul opener 6-3 6-0 while Rakhimova went three sets and also has doubles duty.
- She has converted 51.4% of break points and saved 53.1% on hard courts.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKatie VolynetsEstimated chance63%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova has repeatedly kept hard-court matches within a few games, and Volynets' recent wide margins came mostly against lower-ranked opponents.
- Rakhimova's recent hard-court matches include a 7-6 4-6 7-5 win (one-game margin) and a 6-3 3-6 6-7 loss.
- Her hard-court set evidence shows an average of 22.8 total games, with four of 11 matches containing a tiebreak.
- She has won 6 of 11 hard-court matches and often keeps sets close.
- Volynets' wide recent wins came mostly against lower-ranked opponents (No. 61 or lower).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKamilla Rakhimova +3.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Volynets' dominant straight-set wins and below-line average point toward a shorter match.
- Volynets' hard-court matches average 21.1 total games, and five of her six recent wins were in straight sets.
- Her recent wins include 12-3, 12-5, and 12-2 game totals.
- Rakhimova's hard-court matches average 22.8 total games, but three of her last six finished under 21.5 games.
- Volynets has won 58.2% of hard-court games, which can produce short sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set averages are under 9.5, and lopsided second sets are common.
- Volynets' hard-court second sets average 8.7 total games, below the line.
- Rakhimova's hard-court second sets average 9.0 total games, also slightly below.
- Tiebreaks are rare in their combined hard-court second sets (3 of 22).
- Volynets won her Seoul second set 6-0, a three-game total.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-set averages sit just above 9.5, and Rakhimova's first sets often go long.
- Rakhimova's hard-court first sets average 10.2 total games, above this line.
- Volynets' hard-court first sets average 9.6 total games, just above the line.
- Rakhimova has played three first-set tiebreaks in 11 hard-court matches.
- Their only previous meeting had a 6-4 first set (10 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Volynets has been dominant in second sets on hard courts, and her straight-set wins often come with a strong second set.
- Volynets has won 9 of 11 second sets on hard courts and lost only two.
- She won her Seoul opener's second set 6-0.
- Her total points won on hard courts is 53.8%, supporting sustained set performance.
- Rakhimova has won only 5 of 11 second sets on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKatie VolynetsEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Volynets has been winning in straight sets regularly, and a 2-0 result is the most common outcome in her hard-court evidence.
- Volynets has seven 2-0 scorelines in 11 hard-court matches and won her Seoul opener 6-3 6-0.
- Her hard-court sets-won rate is 72%, and she has lost only three of 11 hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova has lost two of her last six hard-court matches in straight sets.
- The setBetting split gives 60% straight-sets outcomes for this match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Volynets is the more reliable first-set player in this window, with a better hard-court first-set record.
- Volynets has won 8 of 11 first sets on hard courts and lost only three.
- She won her Seoul opener 6-3 in the first set.
- Her first-serve points won on hard courts is 61.9%, helping her start sets strongly.
- Rakhimova has lost four of 11 first sets on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKatie VolynetsEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' hard-court matches have avoided tiebreaks, and Volynets' serve can keep sets short.
- Volynets has played only three tiebreaks in 11 hard-court matches, and none in her Seoul opener.
- Rakhimova has four tiebreaks in 11 hard-court matches, but her recent straight-set wins were 6-3 6-0 and 6-3 6-2.
- Combined, 15 of 22 hard-court matches in the set evidence did not have a tiebreak.
- Volynets' high first-serve percentage (71.6% on hard) helps avoid 6-6 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Katie Volynets: 9/10 recent winner projections matched

9 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Katie Volynets matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Katie Volynets10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·WTA Memphis

#205Iryna Shymanovich0-2#93Katie Volynets

BetBugsKatie Volynets to win·65%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

WTA Memphis

#205Iryna Shymanovich0-2#93Katie Volynets

Katie Volynets to win

65%probability

Katie Volynets won

Matched

27 Jul·WTA Memphis

#93Katie Volynets2-1#51Viktorija Golubic

BetBugsKatie Volynets to win·55%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

WTA Memphis

#93Katie Volynets2-1#51Viktorija Golubic

Katie Volynets to win

55%probability

Katie Volynets won

Matched

9 Jul·WTA Newport

#101Katie Volynets2-0#494Kylie Collins

BetBugsKatie Volynets to win·82%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

WTA Newport

#101Katie Volynets2-0#494Kylie Collins

Katie Volynets to win

82%probability

Katie Volynets won

Matched

8 Jul·WTA Newport

#101Katie Volynets2-1#424Ariana Arseneault

BetBugsKatie Volynets to win·85%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

WTA Newport

#101Katie Volynets2-1#424Ariana Arseneault

Katie Volynets to win

85%probability

Katie Volynets won

Matched

25 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#99Katie Volynets0-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

BetBugsKatie Volynets to win·65%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#99Katie Volynets0-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

Katie Volynets to win

65%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-3Kamilla Rakhimova#76vKatie Volynets#77Jul 30, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Kamilla Rakhimova

8W 7L

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#103Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-0#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

7-6(4) 6-2#44Barbora Krejcikova

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#87Maria Timofeeva

6-4 4-6 6-2#108Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 5-7 6-1#33Maria Sakkari

6-2 6-2#60Kimberly Birrell

6-4 6-0#3Jessica Pegula

6-7(1) 6-0 5-2 ret.#53Katerina Siniakova

6-4 6-1#588Venus Williams

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#387Heather Watson

6-3 0-6 7-6(7)#33Maria Sakkari

4-6 6-4 7-5#48Anhelina Kalinina

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

Katie Volynets

11W 4L

6-3 6-0#116Elvina Kalieva

7-5 6-1#6Linda Noskova

6-3 7-5#61Tereza Valentova

6-3 7-6(6)#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-2 6-3#88Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-1 6-1#212Mia Pohankova

6-2 6-1#603Hong Yi Cody Wong

7-5 0-6 6-4#54Katie Boulter

6-4 6-7(5) 6-1#85Darja Vidmanova

6-4 6-2#186Iryna Shymanovich

7-5 2-6 7-6(3)#65Viktorija Golubic

6-2 6-4#80Tatjana Maria

6-3 6-2#217Greetje Minnen

3-6 6-4 6-3#167Elizabeth Mandlik

6-3 6-4#330Kylie Collins

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KRKamilla RakhimovaRakhimova

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Katie VolynetsVolynetsKV

Katie Volynets carries the stronger recent form — Kamilla Rakhimova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In54.9%+16.6pp71.5%

1st Serve Won62.8%+2.5pp60.3%

2nd Serve Won46.5%+4.0pp50.5%

Aces / Match1.9+0.71.2

Double Faults / Match5.94.5 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.7%+3.9pp49.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.2%+0.8pp51.4%

Break Pts Saved52.8%+4.6pp57.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.6%+3.0pp53.6%

Serve · 2–3

54.9%1st Serve In+16.6pp71.5%

62.8%1st Serve Won+2.5pp60.3%

46.5%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp50.5%

1.9Aces / Match+0.71.2

5.9Double Faults / Match4.5 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

45.7%Return Pts Won+3.9pp49.6%

Pressure · 1–1

52.2%Break Pts Converted+0.8pp51.4%

52.8%Break Pts Saved+4.6pp57.4%

Points · 0–1

50.6%Total Pts Won+3.0pp53.6%

Kamilla Rakhimova

Katie Volynets

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kamilla Rakhimova 2-1

Katie Volynets

Katie Volynets

Katie Volynets

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Kamilla Rakhimova

Katie Volynets

Stat Battle