MexicoWTA GuadalajaraFinished

Predictions graded

Peyton Stearns #57United States2Sloane Stephens #286United States0

Sets 7-6 · 6-4Fri 18 Sept 2026, 02:40 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePeyton Stearns · 229 places

Peyton Stearns

United States

Reached a career-high No. 28 on May 19, 2025. The Cincinnati-born American lists hard court as her favourite surface.

Current ranking: #57
Peak ranking: #28 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Sloane Stephens

United States

Reached career-high No. 3 on July 16, 2018 and lists clay as her favorite surface. Her 2026 season follows rehabilitation from the right-foot stress fracture that severely limited her 2025 schedule.

Current ranking: #286
Peak ranking: #3 · 2018
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 15:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Stephens leads the H2H 2-0 and has better recent form, making her a value pick at 2.40 with a 58% model probability.

The match is likely to be close, with value on over 21.5 total games and over 2.5 sets. Stearns' higher ranking and hard-court solidity prevent a bigger edge for Stephens.

Context

Stephens, 33, is a former US Open champion and has a career win percentage of 55.8%.
She beat Stearns in 2023 and 2024, both on clay, and won the last meeting in three sets. The surface is different here, but Stephens has shown she can handle Stearns' game.
- Stephens won 1-6 6-1 6-3 in April 2024.
- Stephens won 6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(6) in May 2023.
- Both matches were on clay.
Stearns, 24, is ranked No. 60 and has a 57.6% career win rate.
She beat Diane Parry (No. 30) and Emiliana Arango in straight sets this week. Her only recent loss was to Harriet Dart in three sets, so she enters this quarter-final with confidence.
- Stearns beat Diane Parry 6-2 7-5 on September 15.
- Stearns beat Emiliana Arango 6-3 6-2 on September 13.
- Stearns lost to Harriet Dart 3-6 6-3 6-2 on August 31.
Stephens, 33, is ranked No. 169 but has a career win percentage of 55.8%.
She beat Janice Tjen in two tiebreaks and Carole Monnet in straight sets this week. Her recent hard-court record is 9-6 in her last 15 matches, so she is competitive despite her lower ranking.
- Stephens beat Janice Tjen 7-6(4) 7-6(3) on September 16.
- Stephens beat Carole Monnet 6-4 7-6(5) on September 14.
- Stephens has a 60% win rate in her last 15 matches.
Sloane Stephens, 33, is the lower-ranked player in this matchup at No. 169 and has won her last two matches in Guadalajara.
Her previous match on September 16 was suspended by rain at 4-4 in the first set and resumed after about 30 minutes, lasting 1 hour 55 minutes. That stop-start court time is a minor disruption but unlikely to affect her readiness for this match.
- The prior match had a rain suspension and an approximately 30-minute pause before resumption.
- The official match record lists a 1-hour-55-minute duration and a suspended state.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 15:19 · Europe/BucharestWTA Match Centrewww.wtatennis.com · 16 Sep 2026GDL Open 2026: Sloane Stephens remonta el segundo set para meterse a cuartos de finalwww.informador.mx · 15 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Stephens' superior recent form and perfect H2H record give her the edge, though Stearns' higher ranking and solid hard-court play keep it competitive.
- Stephens leads H2H 2-0, both wins on clay in 2023 and 2024.
- Stephens has won 9 of last 15 matches (60%) vs Stearns' 8 of 15 (53.3%).
- Stephens has won her last two matches in Guadalajara, including a win over No. 51 Janice Tjen.
- Stearns has a 5-4 record on hard courts in last 15, while Stephens is 9-6 on hard in same window.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSloane StephensEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Competitive matchups and recent three-set tendencies suggest a longer match.
- Both H2H matches went three sets with 23 and 25 total games.
- Stearns' last 15 matches average 21.5 games per match; Stephens' average 21.5.
- Stephens' last two matches in Guadalajara had 26 and 23 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for Stephens have been tight, and Stearns can push sets deep.
- Stephens' last two matches had first sets of 7-6 and 6-4.
- Stearns' last match had first set 6-2, but previous matches often had closer first sets.
- Both players have similar first-set points won percentages around 50%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been competitive in recent matches for both players.
- Stephens' last two matches had second sets of 7-6 and 7-6.
- Stearns' last match had second set 7-5.
- Both players have similar second-set points won percentages.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stephens' H2H dominance and solid recent margins support a narrow handicap win, but Stearns' own strong wins make it close.
- Stephens has won both H2H matches by margins of 4 and 3 games.
- Stephens' recent wins have been by margins of 2, 3, 7, 5, and 5 games.
- Stearns' recent wins have been by margins of 6, 7, 6, 9, and 6 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostSloane Stephens -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stephens' historical first-set success against Stearns and slightly better recent first-set record support a narrow edge.
- Stephens won first set in both H2H meetings.
- Stephens has won first set in 7 of last 15 matches; Stearns in 6 of 15.
- Stephens' first serve percentage (65.5%) is higher than Stearns' (57.6%) in last 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSloane StephensEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Historical H2H and Stearns' tendency for three-setters support a deciding set.
- Both H2H matches went three sets.
- Stearns has played 8 three-set matches in last 15; Stephens has played 5 three-set matches in last 15.
- Stephens' last two matches were straight sets, but Stearns often goes the distance.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stephens' recent tiebreak-heavy matches and both players' ability to hold serve suggest a tiebreak is likely.
- Stephens' last two matches both had tiebreaks in each set.
- Stearns has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches.
- Stephens has a career tiebreak win percentage of 59%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stearns' ace count could push the total over, but Stephens' low ace rate makes this a coin flip.
- Stearns averages 4.0 aces per match in last 15; Stephens averages 1.3.
- Combined average is 5.3 aces per match.
- Stearns' hard-court ace average is 4.4 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stearns' high double fault rate could push the total over, but Stephens' low rate balances it.
- Stearns averages 3.8 double faults per match in last 15; Stephens averages 2.2.
- Combined average is 6.0 double faults per match.
- Stearns' hard-court double fault average is 4.9 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L1-6 6-1 6-3Peyton Stearns#60vSloane Stephens#169Apr 15, 2024

L6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(6)Peyton Stearns#60vSloane Stephens#169May 25, 2023

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Peyton Stearns

8W 7L

6-2 7-5#30Diane Parry 6-3 6-2#139Emiliana Arango

3-6 6-3 6-2#112Harriet Dart

7-6(7) 1-6 7-5#36Clara Tauson

6-1 7-6(6)#112Harriet Dart

6-0 7-5#65Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-1 2-6 6-3#113Elvina Kalieva

6-1 6-2#165Tatiana Prozorova

6-7(5) 6-0 6-4#116Mary Stoiana

6-4 3-6 7-5#34Nikola Bartunkova

7-5 6-0#56Kimberly Birrell

7-5 6-3#428Emily Appleton

6-3 6-3#12Belinda Bencic

6-4 6-0#42Daria Snigur

6-3 6-3#100Sofia Kenin

Sloane Stephens

9W 6L

7-6(4) 7-6(3)#51Janice Tjen 6-4 7-6(5)#215Carole Monnet

6-1 7-5#10Marta Kostyuk

6-4 6-1#36Clara Tauson

4-6 6-2 6-2#88Mananchaya Sawangkaew

7-5 7-5#10Marta Kostyuk

6-2 6-4#25Anastasia Potapova

7-5 6-3#95Sinja Kraus

6-3 6-1#12Belinda Bencic

6-3 6-4#90Solana Sierra

3-6 6-0 6-2#112Harriet Dart

6-2 6-4#86Darja Vidmanova

6-4 5-7 6-2#43Yuliia Starodubtseva

2-6 6-3 6-2#91Renata Zarazua

6-4 6-2#425Boyoung Jeong

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPeyton StearnsStearns

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Sloane StephensStephensSS

Sloane Stephens carries the stronger recent form — Peyton Stearns's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In57.6%+7.9pp65.5%

1st Serve Won66.2%+3.9pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won44.1%+1.5pp45.6%

Aces / Match4.0+2.71.3

Double Faults / Match3.81.6 fewer2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won45.0%—44.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.5%+4.7pp47.2%

Break Pts Saved56.5%+1.2pp55.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.9%—50.6%

Serve · 2–3

57.6%1st Serve In+7.9pp65.5%

66.2%1st Serve Won+3.9pp62.3%

44.1%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp45.6%

4.0Aces / Match+2.71.3

3.8Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

45.0%Return Pts Won—44.6%

Pressure · 1–1

42.5%Break Pts Converted+4.7pp47.2%

56.5%Break Pts Saved+1.2pp55.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.9%Total Pts Won—50.6%

Peyton Stearns

Sloane Stephens

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Sloane Stephens

Over 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Peyton Stearns

Sloane Stephens

Stat Battle