MexicoWTA GuadalajaraFinished

Predictions graded

Diane Parry #64France0Peyton Stearns #57United States2

Sets 2-6 · 5-7Tue 15 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePeyton Stearns · 7 places

Diane Parry

France

French right-hander who reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 48 in October 2022. No current, reliably sourced injury or trajectory update was found in the prescribed search set.

Current ranking: #64
Peak ranking: #48 · 2022
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Peyton Stearns

United States

Reached a career-high No. 28 on May 19, 2025. The Cincinnati-born American lists hard court as her favourite surface.

Current ranking: #57
Peak ranking: #28 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 03:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Parry's superior recent form, hard-court record, and first-serve performance make her the likely winner, but Stearns' competitive game percentages suggest she can keep it close.

Best bets: Parry ML (small edge), Stearns +3.5 games, and over 21.5 total games.

Context

Parry, 31st-ranked, has been a consistent hard-court performer this season with a 15-10 record on the surface.
Parry's recent hard-court sample shows a 69.2% win rate and a 50% total points won, while Stearns has only a 50% win rate and 51.1% total points won in her last 8 hard-court matches. Parry's stronger results against higher-ranked opponents in her last five matches suggest she is better prepared for this matchup.
- Parry's last 13 hard-court matches: 9 wins, 4 losses (69.2% win rate).
- Stearns' last 8 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 4 losses (50% win rate).
- Parry's last 5 matches: wins over Mertens, Li, Tauson, Oliynykova, Vekic; loss to Cirstea.
- Stearns' last 5 matches: wins over Arango, Dart, Prozorova, Stoiana; losses to Dart, Tauson, Ruse, Kalieva.
Stearns, ranked 55th, has a career return points won percentage of 46%.
Stearns' recent return numbers are slightly better than Parry's, and Parry's second serve has been vulnerable, winning only 42% of points behind it. If Stearns can attack Parry's second serve, she may create break opportunities, but her break point conversion rate of 41% is lower than Parry's 47.3%.
- Stearns' last 15 matches: 44% return points won.
- Parry's last 15 matches: 41.2% return points won.
- Parry's second serve points won: 42%.
- Stearns' break point conversion: 41%.
Parry has been active on hard courts since late June, reaching the fourth round at the US Open.
Parry's average match duration in her last 15 matches is 123.1 minutes, compared to Stearns' 106.1 minutes. Parry has also played more three-set matches recently, which could lead to fatigue in a second-round match after a short turnaround.
- Parry's average match duration: 123.1 minutes.
- Stearns' average match duration: 106.1 minutes.
- Parry's last 15 matches include 6 three-setters; Stearns' include 4 three-setters.
Parry, 31st in the WTA and right-handed, needed a medical timeout while trailing 5-0 in the second set of the Monterrey final on 29 August.
She resumed play, completed the three-set final, and won the deciding set, so there is no confirmed ongoing restriction for this match. The timeout is 17 days old and her recent sample shows four wins from five tracked matches.
- The medical timeout came 17 days before this match.
- Parry resumed play and completed a three-set final.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 03:44 · Europe/BucharestParry defeats Mertens in Monterrey to claim maiden WTA singles titlekelo.com · 29 Aug 2026Diane Parry Lifts Maiden WTA Title in Monterreylastwordonsports.com · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Parry's stronger recent form and hard-court record give her a clear edge, supported by superior first-serve performance.
- Parry last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Stearns 7-8 (46.7%)
- Parry hard-court last 13 record 9-4 (69.2%), Stearns hard-court last 8 record 4-4 (50%)
- Parry ranking 31 vs Stearns 55
- Parry first-serve points won 71.8% vs Stearns 65.2% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDiane ParryEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stearns' competitive game percentages suggest she can keep the match close, making +3.5 games a reasonable handicap.
- Stearns last 15 games won 51.7% vs Parry 51.7%
- Stearns hard-court games won 54.1% in last 8
- Parry hard-court games won 51.3% in last 13
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPeyton Stearns +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21.5 total games, suggesting a competitive match with enough games.
- Parry last 15 average 23.7 games per match
- Stearns last 15 average 21.3 games per match
- Both players have similar games-won percentage around 51.7%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve and pushing the set over 9.5 games.
- Parry recent first sets often close: 7-5, 7-6, 6-4
- Stearns recent first sets include 6-3, 7-6, 6-4
- Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Parry's higher set-win percentage and strong first-set conversion rate make her the likely first-set winner.
- Parry first-set win conversion career 85%
- Parry last 15 sets won 61.1% vs Stearns 51.4%
- Parry hard-court sets won 61.3% in last 13
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDiane ParryEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Parry's overall set dominance suggests she is likely to win the second set if the match progresses normally.
- Parry has won 61.1% of sets in last 15
- Parry's second-set performance has been strong in recent wins
- Stearns has lost 48.6% of sets in last 15
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostDiane ParryEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match could go three sets given both players' tendency to play close matches and similar competitive levels.
- Parry last 15: 5 three-set matches out of 15
- Stearns last 15: 6 three-set matches out of 15
- Both players have similar deciding-set win percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest over 7.5 total aces is likely if the match goes at least two sets.
- Parry averages 4.7 aces per match in last 15
- Stearns averages 3.7 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average 8.4 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3 double faults per match, making over 6.5 total double faults probable.
- Parry averages 3.9 double faults per match in last 15
- Stearns averages 3.5 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 7.4 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tiebreak history suggest a tiebreak is possible.
- Parry has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Stearns has played 3 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Diane Parry has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Diane Parry has fulfilled 6 of 10 win projections, a 60% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 64%, with an expected 6.4 fulfilled predictions, so she has slightly underperformed expectations. All four missed projections resulted in losses, and her current 62% probability sits within her historical range of 58% to 78%.

Recent evidence for Diane Parry10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·WTA Prague

#55Diane Parry0-2#202Mai Hontama

BetBugsDiane Parry to win·72%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#55Diane Parry0-2#202Mai Hontama

Diane Parry to win

72%probability

Mai Hontama won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#103Francesca Jones0-2#47Diane Parry

BetBugsDiane Parry to win·65%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#103Francesca Jones0-2#47Diane Parry

Diane Parry to win

65%probability

Diane Parry won

Matched

21 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#60Diane Parry0-2#213Irina-Camelia Begu

BetBugsDiane Parry to win·65%

Missed

21 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#60Diane Parry0-2#213Irina-Camelia Begu

Diane Parry to win

65%probability

Irina-Camelia Begu won

Missed

20 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#60Diane Parry2-0#223Aoi Ito

BetBugsDiane Parry to win·78%

Matched

20 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#60Diane Parry2-0#223Aoi Ito

Diane Parry to win

78%probability

Diane Parry won

Matched

14 Jun·WTA Berlin

#55Diane Parry2-0#95Ella Seidel

BetBugsDiane Parry to win·62%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

WTA Berlin

#55Diane Parry2-0#95Ella Seidel

Diane Parry to win

62%probability

Diane Parry won

Matched

Previous match context available

Diane Parry

10W 5L

6-2 7-5#17Sorana Cirstea

7-5 6-4#56Viktorija Golubic

6-4 0-6 6-3#20Elise Mertens

7-6(7) 6-4#28Ann Li

6-3 7-5#38Clara Tauson

6-4 7-6(3)#46Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-7(5) 6-4 6-1#39Donna Vekic

6-3 6-3#8Iga Swiatek

4-6 6-4 6-3#237Lois Boisson

2-6 6-2 6-2#20Elise Mertens

6-4 7-6(7)#248Caroline Dolehide

3-6 6-3 7-5#117Kayla Day

6-4 6-0#167Mai Hontama

6-4 3-6 7-6(8)#23Anna Kalinskaya

6-4 6-4#104Francesca Jones

Peyton Stearns

7W 8L

6-3 6-2#88Emiliana Arango

3-6 6-3 6-2#131Harriet Dart

7-6(7) 1-6 7-5#38Clara Tauson

6-1 7-6(6)#131Harriet Dart

6-0 7-5#64Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-1 2-6 6-3#115Elvina Kalieva

6-1 6-2#163Tatiana Prozorova

6-7(5) 6-0 6-4#122Mary Stoiana

6-4 3-6 7-5#34Nikola Bartunkova

7-5 6-0#71Kimberly Birrell

7-5 6-3#450Emily Appleton

6-3 6-3#12Belinda Bencic

6-4 6-0#45Daria Snigur

6-3 6-3#110Sofia Kenin

6-1 6-3#61Daria Kasatkina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DPDiane ParryParry

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Peyton StearnsStearnsPS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In57.2%+1.1pp58.3%

1st Serve Won71.8%+6.6pp65.2%

2nd Serve Won42.0%+1.1pp43.1%

Aces / Match4.7+1.03.7

Double Faults / Match3.90.4 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.2%+2.8pp44.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.3%+6.3pp41.0%

Break Pts Saved62.0%+6.4pp55.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.3%—50.0%

Serve · 2–3

57.2%1st Serve In+1.1pp58.3%

71.8%1st Serve Won+6.6pp65.2%

42.0%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp43.1%

4.7Aces / Match+1.03.7

3.9Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

41.2%Return Pts Won+2.8pp44.0%

Pressure · 2–0

47.3%Break Pts Converted+6.3pp41.0%

62.0%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp55.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.3%Total Pts Won—50.0%