WTA GuadalajaraFinished

Predictions graded

Carole Monnet #196France0Sloane Stephens #286United States2

Sets 4-6 · 6-7Mon 14 Sept 2026, 20:00 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions7–188%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCarole Monnet · 90 places

Carole Monnet

France

French player, born 1 December 2001, with a WTA-listed career-high singles ranking of No. 158 in November 2025. The ITF profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current fitness concern surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #196
Peak ranking: #158
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Sloane Stephens

United States

Reached career-high No. 3 on July 16, 2018 and lists clay as her favorite surface. Her 2026 season follows rehabilitation from the right-foot stress fracture that severely limited her 2025 schedule.

Current ranking: #286
Peak ranking: #3 · 2018
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 06:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Stephens is favored but not a lock; Monnet's competitive hard-court play and Stephens' inconsistency make the handicap (+3.5 games) and over total games (21.5) attractive.

Monnet's high double fault rate also supports over 7.5 double faults. Avoid backing Stephens at 1.22 odds.

Context

Monnet, 196th, is a right-hander who has played most of her recent matches on clay but has a better recent record on hard courts.
Her last five hard-court matches include wins over Katrina Scott and Julia Garcia this week, and a close loss to Anouk Koevermans. That suggests she is comfortable on this surface, but the sample is small and her overall last-15 record is only 7-8.
- Monnet's last 5 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 2 losses.
- Overall last 15 matches: 7 wins, 8 losses.
- This week she beat Katrina Scott (rank 245) and Julia Garcia (rank 848).
Monnet, ranked No. 196, entered Guadalajara through qualifying and has already played two matches this week.
Her qualifying opener lasted 92 minutes, adding court time before the main draw. That workload is normal for a qualifier but means she arrives with less rest than Stephens, who starts directly in the first round.
- The September 12 qualifying win over Julia García was recorded as a 92-minute match, followed by a second qualifying-round assignment.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 06:13 · Europe/BucharestGuadalajara Open qualifying day 1guadalajaraopen.com · 12 Sep 2026
Stephens, 209th, is a former top-10 player with a strong hard-court history, though her recent ranking has dropped.
Her last five hard-court matches include straight-set wins over Tauson (rank 38) and Potapova (rank 25), but also losses to Kostyuk and Sawangkaew. That mixed pattern suggests she can raise her level against better players, but consistency remains a question.
- Stephens beat Clara Tauson (rank 38) 6-4 6-1 on Aug 31.
- Stephens beat Anastasia Potapova (rank 25) 6-2 6-4 on Aug 16.
- She lost to Marta Kostyuk (rank 11) twice in straight sets.
Monnet's second serve has been a weakness throughout her recent matches, regardless of surface.
In her last 15 matches, Monnet has won just 35.4% of second-serve points and averaged 6.6 double faults per match. Stephens, who returns at 44.6% in the same window, may be able to pressure those second serves and create break opportunities.
- Monnet's second-serve points won: 35.4% (145/410) in last 15 matches.
- Monnet's double faults per match: 6.6 in last 15 matches.
- Stephens' return points won: 44.6% in last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Sloane Stephens

1.22fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Stephens' larger recent hard-court sample and higher-quality wins give her a moderate edge over Monnet, whose strong hard-court record is based on only five matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Stephens' larger recent hard-court sample and higher-quality wins give her a moderate edge over Monnet, whose strong hard-court record is based on only five matches.
- Stephens last 15 on hard: 7-6 record, 53.8% win rate, 51.1% games won
- Monnet last 15 on hard: 3-2 record, 60% win rate but only 5 matches tracked
- Stephens overall last 15: 53.3% record, 50.8% games won; Monnet overall: 46.7% record, 47.2% games won
- Stephens has wins over top-40 players Tauson and Potapova in recent hard-court events
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSloane StephensEstimated chance58%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet's hard-court matches tend to be longer, and both players have shown the ability to extend sets, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Monnet hard-court matches average 25.0 games per match over last 5
- Stephens hard-court matches average 21.1 games per match over last 13
- Monnet's last three hard-court matches: 34, 20, 23 games
- Stephens' last three hard-court matches: 19, 17, 26 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players frequently reach double-digit games, supporting over 9.5 in set one.
- Monnet's last 5 hard-court first sets: 13, 12, 10, 10, 10 games
- Stephens' last 5 hard-court first sets: 7, 10, 12, 12, 8 games
- Both players have first-set tiebreak rates above 20% in recent hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet's competitive hard-court performances suggest she can stay within 3.5 games of Stephens.
- Monnet's hard-court games won percentage: 50% (last 5)
- Stephens' hard-court games won percentage: 51.1% (last 13)
- Monnet has kept matches close, with three of her last five hard-court matches decided by 3 games or fewer
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCarole Monnet +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been competitive for both players recently, making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.
- Monnet's last 5 hard-court second sets: 13, 7, 13, 12, 10 games
- Stephens' last 5 hard-court second sets: 12, 7, 12, 9, 10 games
- Both players have shown vulnerability in second sets, leading to extended games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stephens' slightly better recent form and first-set conversion rate support a modest edge in the opening set.
- Stephens first-set win conversion career: 83%
- Monnet first-set win conversion career: 82%
- Stephens has won the first set in 6 of her last 8 wins
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSloane StephensEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet's high double fault count alone makes over 7.5 double faults likely, even with Stephens' low rate.
- Monnet averages 8.0 double faults per match on hard courts (last 5)
- Stephens averages 2.1 double faults per match on hard courts (last 13)
- Monnet's double fault rate is significantly higher than Stephens', pushing the combined total up
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates are close to the line, and Monnet's recent hard-court serving suggests a slight lean to the over.
- Monnet averages 2.0 aces per match on hard courts (last 5)
- Stephens averages 1.3 aces per match on hard courts (last 13)
- Combined average aces per match: 3.3, with Monnet's recent matches showing higher ace counts
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Carole Monnet

7W 8L

7-6(6) 6-7(4) 6-2#245Katrina Scott 7-5 6-2#848Julia Garcia

6-4 7-6(4)#229Anouk Koevermans

7-6(4) 6-3#107Kaitlin Quevedo

7-6(1) 7-5#256Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-1 6-3#322Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-3 3-1 ret.#326Jessica Pieri

6-0 6-2#29Barbora Krejcikova

4-6 6-2 7-6(10)#180Rebeka Masarova

6-2 6-4#163Tatiana Prozorova

6-3 6-1#80Xiyu Wang

7-5 7-6(5)#325Martina Trevisan

6-3 6-4#39Donna Vekic

1-6 6-2 6-1#145Leyre Romero Gormaz

1-6 6-4 6-3#163Tatiana Prozorova

Sloane Stephens

8W 7L

6-1 7-5#11Marta Kostyuk

6-4 6-1#38Clara Tauson

4-6 6-2 6-2#94Mananchaya Sawangkaew

7-5 7-5#11Marta Kostyuk

6-2 6-4#25Anastasia Potapova

7-5 6-3#90Sinja Kraus

6-3 6-1#12Belinda Bencic

6-3 6-4#91Solana Sierra

3-6 6-0 6-2#131Harriet Dart

6-2 6-4#75Darja Vidmanova

6-4 5-7 6-2#58Yuliia Starodubtseva

2-6 6-3 6-2#74Renata Zarazua

6-4 6-2#432Boyoung Jeong

6-3 6-2#30Sara Bejlek

3-6 6-2 6-1#145Leyre Romero Gormaz

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CMCarole MonnetMonnet

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Sloane StephensStephensSS

Sloane Stephens carries the stronger recent form — Carole Monnet's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In63.6%—64.0%

1st Serve Won58.6%+2.6pp61.2%

2nd Serve Won35.4%+10.5pp45.9%

Aces / Match1.3—1.2

Double Faults / Match6.64.4 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.4%+1.8pp44.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.4%+4.0pp46.4%

Break Pts Saved49.7%+8.6pp58.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.3%+1.9pp50.2%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

63.6%1st Serve In—64.0%

58.6%1st Serve Won+2.6pp61.2%

35.4%2nd Serve Won+10.5pp45.9%

1.3Aces / Match—1.2

6.6Double Faults / Match4.4 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

46.4%Return Pts Won+1.8pp44.6%

Pressure · 1–1

50.4%Break Pts Converted+4.0pp46.4%

49.7%Break Pts Saved+8.6pp58.3%

Points · 0–1

48.3%Total Pts Won+1.9pp50.2%