MexicoWTA GuadalajaraFinished

Predictions graded

Peyton Stearns #57United States2Emiliana Arango #97Colombia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Sun 13 Sept 2026, 19:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePeyton Stearns · 40 places

Peyton Stearns

United States

Reached a career-high No. 28 on May 19, 2025. The Cincinnati-born American lists hard court as her favourite surface.

Current ranking: #57
Peak ranking: #28 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Emiliana Arango

Colombia

Structured player data lists Arango at No. 97 and right-handed. The requested searches did not surface a reliable refreshed public profile source for additional display facts.

Current ranking: #97
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 22:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Stearns has a stronger hard-court record and return stats, but Arango's second-serve and break point saving keep it close.

Stearns is overpriced at 1.35, and Arango +3.5 games is a better value. Avoid Stearns -6.5 handicap.

Context

Stearns, 55th-ranked, is a right-hander with a career 57.4% win rate and a solid clay-court record.
Her recent hard-court results show she can push top-40 players like Clara Tauson to three sets, but she has also lost to lower-ranked opponents. This suggests she is capable of competing but not consistently closing out matches.
- Last 7 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 4 losses.
- Wins over Harriet Dart (131) and Tatiana Prozorova (163), losses to Clara Tauson (38) and Elena Ruse (64).
Arango, 88th-ranked, is a right-hander with a career 54.6% win rate and stronger clay-court history.
Her hard-court wins have come against opponents ranked outside the top 100, while she has lost to top-50 players like Iga Swiatek and Xinyu Wang. This pattern suggests she may struggle against Stearns' level.
- Last 9 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 5 losses.
- Wins over Venus Williams (618), Nadia Podoroska (449), Aliaksandra Sasnovich (136), and Maria Paulina Perez Garcia (880).
The two players met once before, in October 2022, when Arango was ranked 88 and Stearns 55.
That result is four years old and may not reflect current form, but it gives Arango a psychological edge and shows she can handle Stearns' game on this surface.
- 2022-10-25: Arango def. Stearns 6-4 6-2 on hard court.
- Arango won 54% of return points and converted 60% of break points in that match.
Stearns and Arango meet in the opening round of the WTA 500 in Guadalajara, an outdoor hard-court event in Zapopan. The match is best-of-three, and the hard-court conditions are the same for both players.
- The current event information fixes Guadalajara as a 28-player outdoor hard-court WTA 500, and the published opening draw pairs Stearns with Arango.
ReportedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 22:47 · Europe/BucharestHard-Court Swing 411: Dates, draws, prize money and everything you need to knowwww.wtatennis.com · 9 Jul 2026Emiliana Arango tendrá a una estadounidense como primera rival en el WTA de Guadalajaramatchtenis.com · 11 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Peyton Stearns

1.35fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Stearns has a stronger recent and surface-specific hard-court profile, but the odds heavily overprice her relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Stearns has a stronger recent and surface-specific hard-court profile, giving her a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.
- Stearns has a 14-12 hard-court record in 2026 vs Arango's 5-12.
- Stearns' last-15 overall record is 46.7% vs Arango's 40%.
- Stearns' last-15 hard-court return points won is 46.2% vs Arango's 40.7%.
- Stearns' career hard-court wins: 116 vs Arango's 97.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPeyton StearnsEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight with both players' serve and return stats suggesting extended games.
- Stearns' last-15 hard-court first-serve points won is 64% vs Arango's 62.4%.
- Arango's last-15 hard-court second-serve points won is 53% vs Stearns' 42.6%.
- Both players have break point save rates above 55%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arango's stronger second-serve and break point saving on hard courts should keep the match close, covering the +3.5 game handicap.
- Arango's last-15 hard-court second-serve points won is 53% vs Stearns' 42.6%.
- Arango's last-15 hard-court break points saved is 64% vs Stearns' 57.1%.
- Stearns' last-15 hard-court record is 42.9% vs Arango's 44.4%.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostEmiliana Arango +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is expected to be competitive with both players holding serve at moderate rates, leading to a higher total games count.
- Stearns' last-15 average match duration is 106.2 minutes; Arango's is 98.6 minutes.
- Stearns' last-15 hard-court games won percentage is 52.4%; Arango's is 49.7%.
- Both players have similar break point conversion rates around 41-47%.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is expected to remain competitive with both players having opportunities to break serve.
- Stearns' last-15 hard-court return points won is 46.2% vs Arango's 40.7%.
- Arango's last-15 hard-court break points saved is 64% vs Stearns' 57.1%.
- Both players have similar double fault rates around 4-5 per match.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stearns' slightly better hard-court serve and return metrics support a narrow edge in the opening set.
- Stearns' first-set win conversion is 86% career vs Arango's 87%.
- Stearns' last-15 hard-court first-serve points won is 64% vs Arango's 62.4%.
- Stearns' last-15 hard-court break points saved is 57.1% vs Arango's 64%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPeyton StearnsEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stearns' higher ace rate on hard courts pushes the combined total slightly above the line.
- Stearns' last-15 aces per match is 3.9; Arango's is 1.7.
- Stearns' last-15 hard-court aces per match is 4.9; Arango's is 1.7.
- Combined expected aces based on recent averages is around 5.6.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Stearns is unlikely to cover a large -6.5 game handicap given her recent hard-court struggles and Arango's competitive return stats.

Prediction history

Peyton Stearns has been highly reliable when projected to win

Peyton Stearns has fulfilled 7 of 10 recent win projections, a 70% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 61.4%, with an expected 6.1 wins, so she has slightly outperformed expectations. All three missed projections resulted in losses, with no draws or unresolved outcomes.

Recent evidence for Peyton Stearns10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·WTA Memphis

#132Elvina Kalieva2-1#58Peyton Stearns

BetBugsPeyton Stearns to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

WTA Memphis

#132Elvina Kalieva2-1#58Peyton Stearns

Peyton Stearns to win

62%probability

Elvina Kalieva won

Missed

29 Jul·WTA Memphis

#124Mary Stoiana1-2#58Peyton Stearns

BetBugsPeyton Stearns to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

WTA Memphis

#124Mary Stoiana1-2#58Peyton Stearns

Peyton Stearns to win

58%probability

Peyton Stearns won

Matched

21 Jun·WTA Eastbourne

#64Peyton Stearns0-2#73Kimberly Birrell

BetBugsPeyton Stearns to win·62%

Missed

21 Jun 2026

WTA Eastbourne

#64Peyton Stearns0-2#73Kimberly Birrell

Peyton Stearns to win

62%probability

Kimberly Birrell won

Missed

20 Jun·WTA Eastbourne

#64Peyton Stearns2-0#444Emily Appleton

BetBugsPeyton Stearns to win·82%

Matched

20 Jun 2026

WTA Eastbourne

#64Peyton Stearns2-0#444Emily Appleton

Peyton Stearns to win

82%probability

Peyton Stearns won

Matched

27 May·WTA Roland Garros

#93Daria Snigur0-2#78Peyton Stearns

BetBugsPeyton Stearns to win·55%

Matched

27 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#93Daria Snigur0-2#78Peyton Stearns

Peyton Stearns to win

55%probability

Peyton Stearns won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-2Peyton Stearns#55vEmiliana Arango#88Oct 25, 2022

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Peyton Stearns

7W 8L

3-6 6-3 6-2#131Harriet Dart

7-6(7) 1-6 7-5#38Clara Tauson

6-1 7-6(6)#131Harriet Dart

6-0 7-5#64Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-1 2-6 6-3#115Elvina Kalieva

6-1 6-2#163Tatiana Prozorova

6-7(5) 6-0 6-4#122Mary Stoiana

6-4 3-6 7-5#34Nikola Bartunkova

7-5 6-0#71Kimberly Birrell

7-5 6-3#450Emily Appleton

6-3 6-3#12Belinda Bencic

6-4 6-0#45Daria Snigur

6-3 6-3#110Sofia Kenin

6-1 6-3#61Daria Kasatkina

6-3 6-1#35Maria Sakkari

Emiliana Arango

6W 9L

7-6(5) 7-5#143Carol Young Suh Lee

6-0 6-2#880Maria Paulina Perez Garcia

6-4 6-2#43Xinyu Wang

6-3 1-6 7-6(5)#68Panna Udvardy

6-3 6-0#8Iga Swiatek

6-2 6-2#618Venus Williams

4-6 7-5 6-3#449Nadia Podoroska

3-6 6-4 6-4#136Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-1 7-6(4)#237Lois Boisson

5-7 6-2 6-3#146Tamara Zidansek

6-3 6-2#87Paula Badosa Gibert

6-2 6-2#371Lea Nilsson

6-3 6-1#192Anastasia Gasanova

6-3 6-0#65Caty McNally

7-6(2) 6-4#72Maya Joint

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPeyton StearnsStearns

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Emiliana ArangoArangoEA

Peyton Stearns carries the stronger recent form — Emiliana Arango's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.3%+5.2pp63.5%

1st Serve Won65.1%+4.4pp60.7%

2nd Serve Won44.3%+5.7pp50.0%

Aces / Match3.9+2.21.7

Double Faults / Match3.7—3.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.9%+1.9pp42.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.0%+2.8pp43.8%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+1.1pp56.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.1%+0.8pp49.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.3%1st Serve In+5.2pp63.5%

65.1%1st Serve Won+4.4pp60.7%

44.3%2nd Serve Won+5.7pp50.0%

3.9Aces / Match+2.21.7

3.7Double Faults / Match—3.8

Return · 1–0

43.9%Return Pts Won+1.9pp42.0%

Pressure · 1–1

41.0%Break Pts Converted+2.8pp43.8%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+1.1pp56.0%

Points · 1–0

50.1%Total Pts Won+0.8pp49.3%

Peyton Stearns

Emiliana Arango

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Peyton Stearns

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Peyton Stearns (-6.5) @ 3.20

Head-to-Head

Peyton Stearns

Emiliana Arango

Stat Battle